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Noob67, yes it relates significantly to the port project, but also railways and industrial parks.
The port, if it comes off will be the largest on the east coast of Africa, and obviously has military implications with regards to its local arch rival in the Indian Ocean, as does the port at Djibouti.
Yes the US and West generally have been way behind the curve with Chinese influence generally in Africa, but I think are now starting to step up, at least as regards Africa, post Obama and Trump. But they do indeed have a long way to go, and the US is often short sighted and short term to say the least.
From a Tanzanian perspective they would wish to extract maximum value from whoever was interested in investing, and if necessary play one part off against another.
The Chinese tend to cover all their bases, and I expect that they will have done so in this case.
I think the BVI angle probably assists.
Never a TR1, though.
I will wait patiently for all 4 drills to complete, before doing anything here, even if it post year end. I think it will take at least until then for something like fair value to be realised, but it will be eye watering.
Not to worry Noob, I've just heard the "leave, then" rhetoric too many times on here from some rotten fruit that it irked me somewhat.
I'll admit though, it even interests me that it is us chartists who have queried a similar concern today. A flaw in our makeup perhaps.
I hope we get news soon, even if it's just to alleviate some of the tetchy exchanges on here of late.
All the best.
I wouldn't say a target Josh. But it certainly does interest me. I'm not one bit critical and don't want to go down that rabbit hole of TA vs FA.
It was an attempt at alleviating fears.
I did suggest people make that balance on selling buying or holding, which we all do at any given time, or try to do.
It wasn't a 'if you don't like leave suggestion' . I may not have expressed that very well. Apologies.
I think, for apart from the perpetually panicky, any nervousness is down to entry price, expectations and greed
If you’re in at2-3p and haven’t guaranteed yoursrlf a profit but want more, then I can see why you’d be nervous.
Similarly if you were in eg at 15 and wanted to double your stake - do you cut and run for a guaranteed 80%?
But for everyone else ( in general)? What did you think was going to happen?
1.They dig a hole
2.We wait while they look for helium
3.They either find it or dont
Being at stage 2 is what you committed yourself to when buying in.
Of course, I want to make millions. Any butterflies is based on the chance of that vs doing my money.
But I *hoped* to get to this point when I bought in on the first show.
“Panicking” doesn’t come into it
Noob67, As one of your targets I'll concede that I am certainly more influenced, or swayed by detail, maybe by nature (many chartists, myself included, are natural and/or academic statisticians), and some of your points are valid. As a student of behavioral economics I can honestly say that I have even veered slightly into a mindset I should think I'd be more cognizant of. Shameful. I am but human.
With respect, though, please do not suggest people "leave HE1" just because they have a minor concern. The absurdity of that request is hard to articulate. We have a star of a CEO and an extremely promising project, I don't think questioning what a potential new schedule could look like begets the so-called guardians of HE1 showing people the door.
It relates to the port doesn it?
Magalufi didnt like the terms of the deal. He didn't like any deal west or east. He was a mad man.
It's a ten billion pound state of the art port, funded by the Chinese.
The new prez is open and is doing exactly as she should do. The best for the citizens. That involves sometimes taking a bad deal, it involves sometimes partnering with China.
People should remember much of the money America spends in Africa is on military. China do not operate on those terms. They do soft power.
In fact some of the money the USA spend on Africa is actually spent on employed people in the Europe and Asia on espionage. Some of it is spent on the Armies of other nations ensuring they keep presence in certain nations.
Personally i do not see USA involvment in Tanzania one inch. DM speaking at that Helium Event in Houston, no one has looked at the other speakers?
Tom Deng of Guanghzhou (hot aircompany whatever) who bought the Linde Chinese Helium production and buys Helium in the rest of the world is a speaker there.
That should lend to consideration of how much America care about Chinese Helium reach outside of the USA, when in Houston he will be very popular.
The yanks have put through laws in Congress to supply science and military first and foremost and that will do for them, they have no shortage. I don't think industrial helium espionage is high on the plan.
all IMO ofc
I think this moment is all psychological and PIs who are fearful should look at thoughts and behaviors of themselves as much as HE1. Step out of your minds for a moment.
There are plenty of options out there and plenty of prospects, if one feels X company is better and quicker, make that balanced choice and leave HE1.....days prior to potentially a billion pound asset being found, after 5 years of research , getting permits, drilling and overcoming a drilling challenge. :)
In this midst of the noise and the fear there are some good questions, but I would refer to 'did you buy into HE1, to see if they could find Helium' or did you buy into them to see if they could 'meet their self declared deadlines'.
"Louis Pasteur, while I appreciate your work here you are 4 weeks late and therefore Dragons Den are out of any further investment".
The psychology of you were told 'this time next week', you're naturally going to be disappointed. You're also going to think what else isn't true. The reactive brain is thinking 'you told me one month and you broke that David, I trusted you, I am let down, I cant trust you anymore'.
However of course. delays are not totally immaterial to our end game,but rather add different questions and some risks.
The tweet yesterday was to alleviate some of the fears, whilst leaving the positive thoughts in place.The tension of the 'moment' and some PI investment level doesn't allow that tweet to work like that, it just added more questions and fears and each tweet is dissected as an alien at area51 would be.
What's interesting and I mean no slight, it's several of the chartists whom are wobbling today and having doubts, based on non Chartist issues.
Now isn't that fascinating.
Id say 99% of those who believe we have a major discovery on our hands are in and nothing will be able to get them to sell up except a triple bagger.. hence trade volume drying up
Whilst we are all waiting for news, the CCP appears to be taking an increased interest in Tanzania, an opportunity provided by the death of the late President -
Behind a paywall to which I do not have access but the headline and first few words tell the story well enough.
I'm sure that those who can wait will be well rewarded.
I agree - Boomers just need to chill on twitter and be patient; we'll get there eventually!
Any appraisal will be done, as a separate drill after the completion of the exploration drill. If they get to TD and a discovery, this would HAVE to be notified the the market. Failure would lave them open to accusations of insider trading, as news would/could leak out and others wold act on it.
NDN - I think I understand what you're saying now...essentially that there are no guarantees of commercial success with drill 1, but that reaching total depth in itself can be considered a form of success in moving forward. Yes. Agree with that. Sometimes its difficult to discern meaning on these boards. Thanks.
Brilliant post Spacetomato. Weak hands always wobble at the slightest ( in their minds) perceived delay.
Afternoon all, long term holder and lurked here.
If my memory serves me correctly (not always a sound assumption) Mitchell brought a bigger rig than expected (6") which is ok for appraisal.
If that is the case then maybe they're doing that at the same, which would explain the delay.
Other wild theories are available.
I hope I'm right but anyway happy to hold as I have faith in DM to be doing whatever's best, even moreso as he stands to gain a lot as well if it's all successful.
Glib, why there is so much talk lately of "failure" at TAI-1? Why do folk here are so anxious lately? We had one pipe that broke suddenly people get nervous. And if there is no RNS on Monday...ooohh, aaahh, there is something wrong, perhaps?
As a simplified example, for anyone who never ever used a drill machine in their lives, you may not know this, but once you break a drill bit trying to make a hole in a concrete wall, the next attempt will be done at a slower pace, especially if the drill bit is of a narrow diameter; that is when you know you are dealing with a concrete wall. Now, what about when you don't know what your wall is made up of?
Those guys drilling at Tai-1 are drilling with a very narrow drill bit and the drilling structure stretches 1200 meters, so you figure; more over, although they have the seismic studies with them, drilling can always throw some surprises, so after the first issues we encountered we need to be gentle, so as the DM said, we are drilling and the RNS will land when the RNS will land.
I read some Tweets replies to yesterday tweet and seriously, I would be ashamed to tweet them; not that I tweet as I don't even have an account, but those tweets show the "I want it now (baby) attitude of some investors who shouldn't even be investing in an exploration company in the first place as they clearly haven't got a clue. They are the likes that cannot wait..the snow flake generation. We have a damn great CEO who this isn't his first drilling campaign and is doing a great job letting us aware of things in the field, but I wish sometimes he didn't tweet at all and we were like old school..you get the news when the news is ready vie a RNS.. stuff you, snow flakes. Sell you damn shares and go away. I am sure you can find another company with less "uncertainties" and whose CEO will post a tweet even when he goes to the loo.
PS: Glib, this is not aimed at you.
Charlie - I’m not making that connection
It’s clear the first drill may not make a commercial discovery
If it was a given, the SP would be well north of 50p now
I’m saying a “successful” drill is one which reaches TD.
Hopefully it also comprises a discovery, but if not, it makes eventually striking significantly more likely with the extra info we’ve gleaned vs giving up when the bit disconnect or for any other reason
You're right that the plan at the start of drilling was Tai and then moving to the other locations, then, after completing the drills, it would be appraisals.
IMO the plans are fluid to a certain degree. Tai was never on the original drill schedule, but was made the first target as it was a "must drill" based on the 2D seismic survey.
We don't know what is actually happening there, so the original plan (at start of drills) may alter as DM/HE1 make decisions based on actual information.
I think we can be sometimes too analytical of the exact wordings used, the timings and the stated plans. This is exploration and as such, it has a number of unknowns.
As far as I am aware there is no mention of a second drill location as yet. I may have been in error on assuming Tai-1 was the first of 3 drills at the Tai prospect which is 2km wide by 5km long. I suppose it will be Itumbula or Kasuku next if we are only drilling 1 hole per site. It seemed odd to write off an entire prospect if one hole failed.
But...but dad, Are we nearly there yet? (lol)
calm down children
Glib - Like I said, do your research, there have never been plans to drill 3 wells at Tai, again, as many on here know, Tai wasn't even planned to be drilled till much later, it just came forward due to the updated seismic to a 'Must Drill', we had already mobilised to a different site before changing plan and heading here. All you need to do is read RNS, and perhaps going on the website would be a start
I was probably not as clear as I should have been in my post. Yes we are fully financed for 3 exploration drills and the appraisal well drills with an optional 4th. I thought the 3 drills were going to be at Tai hence my comment "we are only currently financed for exploration and appraisal drilling at the Tai site". I may be wrong on that - do we know where the other drills are supposed to be if not at Tai? I probably assumed this as the drill has been designated Tai-1 which suggests (to me) there will be more than one drill at the site so they need an individual identification rather than just calling the drill Tai. I could be wrong.
As I am talking utter rubbish, could you fill in the blanks? My research is obviously not good enough.
NDN - I was wondering what you mean by 'we may not have a gusher' because it sounds like you think the drill might fail to produce a discovery? I thought they had noticed bubbles in the mud and would have to do a flow test before they knew if they could announce a discovery, so I was just wondering where you're making the connection between time taken to drill to depth and not finding flow?
I agree that there will be anxiety right now - more so if you are heavily exposed (and I am one of those - 30% of portfolio approx). But, everything to date is actually encouraging and mechanical mishaps happen. As Ndn71 states, even if this is a duster it doesn’t change the logic of the basin being an HE generating area. They will find it, but of course, that would take a lot more conviction to hold in the face of bad news.
Let’s just hope we get the important news by Mon at the latest. :-D
Good points Seagullsfan. It still doesn't entirely allay my concerns about schedule which I'll reassess ont weekend, but the "years" comment may have been a tad over-egged.
It's probably all the excitement over the uniqueness of this venture that's gotten under my skin, a little. Thankfully I don't have these concerns about any of my other investments as I might not cope.
I appreciate your cordiality.