The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Cheers DBD
I watch the videos, but dont see the bigger picture until someone like you adds or someone asks a good question :)
Just wondering now if Tai is +10x that initial 1.7bcf, going on 10km^2, or even x20..
I thinks its going to be a big big surprise if its sealed..
Dai2belts
thats also possible. it depends whether they are striking the upper or lower targets first. Many options then to access the second and third targets within the same drilling program. there are quite a few things to consider to reduce drilling risk. But Its all very conventional in the drilling world so Mitchell Drilling should be able to design it accordingly in the most effective way ....
A bit missing, Tai is approx 10km^2...
And $375/mcf..
just did the new sp in my head :)
Thanks DBD.
You have the grey matter working now, so I assume they could drill to the first target and do what they do, then if it covers an area overlapping the lower target they could seal and insert a sleeve/tube through the upper target..so sealing the walls of the bore... If that makes sense as I have watched videos where they sleeve/line the bore hole and later perforate a section to release the gas..
I like the decimal place error, giving 111bcf, image the sp..
The admission doc has 3 targets for Tai, but DM only highlighted two.
H&P have used a combined P50 bcf for Mbuni, Kasuku and Itumbula of 18bcf for the sp calculation..
H&P also suggests the largest closures are 10km^2 when discussing wells per closure, and the 3 largest P50 bcf values, are approx 16, 21 &22 bcf, plus DM mentioned the drill sample could indicate the bcf value is more, double, because of air dilution in the previous samples..all speculation though.
@seagullfans, yes, this would be it... not long now....
I see it as a much bigger element than discovering a HC basin. Its like discovering oil back in the late 1880s and proving the HC system and prospecting method. if only people realise what HE1 is about.
I have to say its also one of the few shares giving me some comfort these last few days -HE1, Apple and Roblox... else, I am seeing red .. time to shut the share app for a few days :)
Fantastic post!!
Thank you!!
@deepbluediver.
That's great. Thanks for the detailed explanation which makes sense.
The more I hear (and understand) about this company/asset, the more it makes me feel as though is potentially going to be a huge reward for those of us in at this time.
If Carlsberg did exploration companies eh! :)
Seagullsfan, Dai2belts
My two cents below.
- the total drill program looks at derisking and confirming the prospecting method and the different potential He traps (1), and to declare discovery (2). So a discovery in one type of trap would derisk and improve CoS of that particular type of trapping mechanism. But until the drill bit confirm He presence, no discovery will be declared.
- For Tai prospect, this is targeting stacked prospects in Upper Karoo and Lower Permian. [2 according to @seisprocessor from his review. Trek mentioned potentially multi >3. is there a document link i can review? cant seem to find it this morning]. In this scenario, the drill bit would target one prospect first, gather data, plug and sidetrack to the next target (from the same pad and main bore).
- therefore likely each drilling program may see more than 1 resource / discovery being confirmed.
Will they continue drilling program in the same section if they hit discovery on the first prospect?
- likely if the next target has different trap mechanism to derisk a new class of reservoir-trap system
- or if the same trap mechanism as discovery, then to chase discovery volumes.
Other notes on Tai while I was looking around:
-Tai is within the Rukwa project area, seems to traverse two license block:
- PL 10713/2015 Rent paid until 17 September 2020 (2021 rent due in December 2020) . PL 10712/2015 Rent paid until 17 September 2020 (2021 rent due in December 2020)
- Ivuna 1 is closest historical well drilled using coarse 2D seismic vintage, circa 10km NW of Tai prospect, drilled by an Amoco led Joint Venture in 1987 to test for hydrocarbons in the Rukwa project area. drilled to a depth of 2,318 m. No significant hydrocarbon shows were reported, and the wells were plugged and abandoned (P&A). log suite from the well provided valuable information about the geology and stratigraphic control. Worth to mention that Itumbula He-N2 spring lies ~15km SE of Tai prospect
-[based on OLD data] Targeting (recoverable, mid case) 1.74 bcf of 138 bcf (unrisked) of He (source page 31, SRK CPR. These numbers are superseeded - larger than initially thought of, following completion of 2D infill work).
- [based on recent 2D infill] Currently Tai is expected to be larger than the initial main targets of Kasuku [ 111.39 bcf unrisked] and Itumbula [14.52 bcf unrisked]
HE1 has now completed the infill so i expect CoS has improved to an extent. the drill bit will unlock and give us certainty.
Seagullsfan
on seismic, a simple analogue would be to take a piece of A4 paper, assume thats the exploration rights area. the seismic line is merely (akin to) taking a pen and making a line (or two or 3 or more) on the paper (the total length of the lines your draw is the 200 km line). you can make a lot of lines, criss crossing, diferent parts etc. the higher the intensity of those lines, the better the subsurface imaging. Hope this helps
DYOR
310km^2 is the requested driling area, 400km^2 is measuring the infill map, both from Aprils presentation..
Thanks @dai2belts.
@seagullsfan, estimated infill area at least 310km^2 maybe 400km^2
Just remember people started taking positions mid April last time for May drilling. Seen buying limits are starting to get quite tight. Let's see if the same starts to happen mid May.
Another question (sorry) lol.
HE1 have 4,512 sq km of exploration rights. The seismic survey states 200km of survey day. However, this is not stated as area but a linear measurement.
So, does this 200km equate to 200 sq km which is 4.5% of the total area, or is it just a linear value, in which case, is there anyway to determine the area mapped? Or is that irrelevant?
@deepbluediver
No rush we have until June, so going no where, maybe here until fcf pays dividends higher than my purchase price :)
Seagullsfan, dai2belts
Just saw this one. Apologies. Let me revert back later today (just sorting out family this am).
I asked similar but it slipped through the net, hopefully a few will add
I could be talking rubbish, so was hoping somebody else answered :)
Thanks dai2belts.
As I’d not had a reply I wondered if I’d asked a question which had already been asked lots “Oh FFS, not again....” :)
Its a good question, been waiting for someone to answer..
I wonder if the answer to your question depends on the outcome.
My understanding is there are 2 or 3 targets/pay zones in each well.
So that gives up to 3 attempts in each to discover a commercial well.
I guess a commercial well could have 1 or more zones depending on size of each
But if you dont flow test until a later date how would you know whether or not to stop at the first discovery, so do you drill all targets?
I am not sure but think I read DME have wells with untapped pay zones below, so I guess they stopped drilling once they struck it lucky. Noob is the DME expert...
I wonder if DeepBlueDiver or Seisprocessor can give a qualified answer?
Apologies if this has already been asked/explained.
I know HE1 are going to perform 3 drills and a possible 4th one. However, each drill will consist of 3 separate attempts (don't know the correct terminology).
So, does this mean that each well has 3 attempts to strike a decent source, of that each well could end up with multiple sources?
I guess another linked question would be (depending on the answer to the previous one), if they strike decent HE levels on the first attempt on the first drill, do they still drill the other 2 attempts on that well?