The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Got that, thank you.
The JPY 10.1bn is the Takeda full year number (to 31/3/24).
It is approx $65m taking off the 2023 sales of $15m gives Q1 24 sales of $50m
All numbers approximate as I dont know what exchange rate Takeda has used or what HCM will use when they come to report the numbers.
Link to the presentation:
https://www.takeda.com/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/
Open the presentation rather than the announcement and See slide 41.
Are you sure that the 10,1bn HPY revenue isn't the quarterly number and from approval in november?
Just seen it, added another 3% rise, volume too.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0013.HK/
Thanks 1pencil
Just a reminder that HCM will use a more stable USD exchange rate than Takeda and will also have production fees in revenue. The Q4 production fee was $5 of $15m sales, that would scale to $17m in Q1 but with limited profit impact.
The royalty is all profit, so $7.5m in Q1.
There could be additional milestone payments for US sales later this year but we don’t know what those triggers are (100m? 500m).
SP jumped another HK$ and looks like 340p to start on AIM
Informative posts Jatw,.
I stand corrected, HCM 13 is currently at a 2 year high.
Building the patient book at this rate should add $30m per quarter to sales
50/80/110/140 (less some patients leaving) could result in US sales of $350m which would generate about $50m royalty revenues for HCM.
EU and JP revenues on top,
I see analysts updating their forecasts…..positively,
Close to a 12 month high in HK, Hang Seng up over 1% with bullish calls on China,
The appendix to their finance presentation reports 10.1bn JPY sales. That is approx $65m (at 155Y= 1USD).
So Q1 sales are approx $50m.
That is pretty good in my view and continues the strong uptake.
Amones, the EU approval of the MAA should follow 67 days after the CHMP opinion is received.
So a little over 3 months. It should be approved in July.
The China approvals seem more variable and less certain.
The Fruq sNDA for Gastric cancer has been in for 13m already, but the company is anticipating that Orpathys may get its extension to 1l within 8m.
The BTD/Priority reviews for Sovlep (Jan) and Fruq+Sintilimab (Apr) seem to be expected after about 9m.
I dont think China issues a decision due date like the US PDUFA, I agree some greater clarity would be helpful not least for the company to plan product launches.
NB In a revenue forecast, Trinity Delta estimated only $100m of Takeda sales….if that is accurate my 30-50 range could be very optimistic!…but 100m is only 8.5m per month.
I am expecting a pattern more like this for the monthly sales (excluding stock transactions)(first two in 2023)
5,10,15,20,25 (Q1 sales of 60m) (this would be a very strong performance)
3,6,9,12,15 (36m)
2.5,5,7.5.10.12.5 (30m) (this is my lower estimate)
Takeda reported 15m sales in the Nov/Dec period. There may have been some stocking of the pharmacy chain within that rather than actual paying patients, but they should be adding customers who will on average be under going treatment for sometime, so there should be compounding of sales increases going on .
I am guessing somewhere between $30m (the run rate from 2023) and $50m (adding $5m in new patients monthly) for in-market sales….Lets see.
HCM gets a mid teens royalty and manufacturing fees (in 2023, HCM got $5m manufacturing and $2m royalty on 15m sales. ….I assume most of the profit will come through royalty and the product costs dont come with much markup.
The new corporate presentation has only changed the summary of registration studies slide as far as I can tell. Amdiz has been removed (Ph 3 trials needed so beyond the timescale, but also may be deprioritised). 453 has been added/confirmed.
Remember reading a post from Jatw about Takeda’s results, scheduled for tomorrow, 9th May.
Any predictions about profit from fruq..sales, ex-China and income to HCM?
Points of interest to HCM shareholders will be;
-progress Takeda has achieved with fruq.. sales in the USA
-expected date of approval for Fruq..from European medical agency (received a positive opinion from CHMP, recently).
Text book stuff..
'Approaching round numbers $20, always a favourite for prop traders as investors breath a sigh of relief crossing said threshold, only for the rug to be unceremoniously pulled from under ..'
Global hedge funds chase Hong Kong stocks rally, UBS says
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Global hedge funds that use an equities long-short strategy are growing increasingly bullish on China, evidenced by the heavy pick-up in their purchases of Hong Kong-listed shares, UBS Group said in a note.
Hong Kong's stock markets, which closely mirror China's struggling performance, have recovered since March as Beijing rolled out economic support measures. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 7% in April, marking its best monthly gain since January 2023 and outperforming most major markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-hedge-funds-chase-hong-024837696.html
Two HK announcements this week:
29/4 Innovent produced an overall Q1 sales number and YOY comparator +60%.
Innocare has announced a Board meeting to release its Q1 performance is on13/5.
Nice job Jatw
This is the response to my recent email to IR (I was surprised to get a reply). As they acknowledge competitors starting to do quarterly sales reporting I think this will be considered and will come in due course…..probably best once new revenue streams start kicking in and start Q1 25.
Sorry for slow reply.
Thank you for your strong and long support of Hutchmed.
Some of our peers start to do quarterly updates as their portfolio of products and scale of operation expand.
We will seriously and carefully consider your suggestion.
In the meantime, please do realize the reporting formats may differ between our partners and ourselves.
Our revenue also comprises different components, including royalties, manufacturing,...
So, our case may be slightly different from peers who do their own manufacturing, marketing and distribution, capturing 100% of product profits.
Please continue to support us and feel free to send us comments.
Approaching round numbers $20, always a favourite for prop traders as investors breath a sigh of relief crossing said threshold, only for the rug to be unceremoniously pulled from under ..
I have delved a little more into the EU processes for delivering new drugs to patients.
It seems that many markets have a state system that controls the price of the drugs reimbursed by the state. These are largely unco-ordinated although some reference the prices paid in other countries in price setting. They have a benchmark of added value and don’t reimburse new drugs unless they add value above the cost / benefit of existing treatments.
Germany seems to be the first market that drugs should be launched in as they have a one year period before the state price is set.
All of this makes me think that Takeda will require 2-3 years to establish full volume sales across the EU, although some of the less restricted markets can be up and running quite quickly.
Perhaps, the ‘analysts’ in London and US were unable to ‘analyse’ CHMP’s POSITIVE opinion about fruq….
This morning, they seemed to have realised the meaning of ‘positive opinion’, of course, after getting a clue from HK.
Jatw, yes indeed. What happenend in London and the US on Friday left me puzzled. Thank goodness sanity has been restored.
It seems HK takes a different view…going back to 310p today in London.
Par for the course, see comments on results day..
I understand the sentiment but I hope they have the patience (and the patients)