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Strong results hence outperformance with other pharms, notably Beigene
I suppose it relates to statements at the Party get together…overall I dont like these no news movements, they can easily be reversed.
For me, the next important piece of news will be the Q1 24 sales made by Takeda in the US.
Nov/Dec was $15m, I am hoping for building momentum with $30m in Jan-Mar and that they can build this up to $50m per quarter by the end of the year, giving in-market sales of around $150m which would generate a royalty to HCM of $20m plus other manufacturing and support charges. It was interesting that the EU market is considerable larger than the US (although the pricing may be lower when that is determined), hence approval by EMA is also to be eagerly awaited, hopefully there will be meaningful EU sales later this year.
That's some move for HK
HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI)
17,093.50+505.93 (+3.05%)
Target Price HK$34.31 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625295271_1.pdf
Mar 2023, Target Price was HK$37.49 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202303021583957689_1.pdf
Mar 2022, Target Price was HK$73.25 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202203071551123207_1.PDF
Sep 2021, Target Price was HK$77.74 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202109171516738534_1.pdf
Short positions in China stocks shrink after regulatory crackdown
PUBLISHED SAT, MAR 2 20248:58 PM EST
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/03/short-positions-in-china-stocks-shrink-after-regulatory-crackdown.html
..nah, don't buy that Jatw, those are good numbers, prop traders trying to dampen enthusiasm is my guess.
Modest growth at SHPL but a very nice asset indeed, are they looking at a possible separate IPO ?
> We continue to explore opportunities to monetize the underlying value of our SHPL joint venture including various divestment and equity capital market alternatives.
Nothing to see hear folks! The plan is in place, just a little slower than we promised.
US reaction is muted….I would expect HK to open positively (ie recover todays loss), but not much more.
There was nothing really to get the analysts excited…first dividend, buy back.
I expect continued pipeline and revenue progress but a relatively dull share price unless the Board decides it has excess capital and can either spend on licensing / M&A or make a return to shareholders….it may get interesting in three years time when they should be profitable….only 25 years in the making, patient capital indeed.
AstraZeneca sets global strategic center in Shanghai
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202402/28/WS65de87a6a31082fc043b972f.html
There has been a fair amount of slippage from 2024 NDAs into 2025….and the Amdiz items have slipped out of the 24/25 timeline (under review but my view would be unlikely in the next two years).
This does not seem to change the story in that the cash flow from the oncology business is rapidly improving.
I hope they can land a partner for Sovlep later this year - once the China NDA is approved they will have a better case. I assume that is going to be in Q3. I also hope that Takeda will begin to develop Fruq for other indications (the GC indication will be first, not sure how Lilly / Inno feel about the sintilimab combo being taken outside China - that probably needs another licensing agreement).
Looking forward to reading the Takeda quarterly results for Fruqzala sales - hope HCM adopts a quarterly sales update.
The overall profit of $100m is a strong result, stripping out the 280m recognised of the Takeda upfront payment there was a loss of $180m which is half the $360m loss of 2022.
The Amdiz news is not unexpected (it was too quiet), so that is some revenue missing from 2025/26 but not critical.
2024 revenue growth is going to come from Takeda royalties and Sovlep in China. They should make a further dent in the underlying loss and possibly turn another profit this year depending on how much of the remaining Takeda cash is recognised.
2025 hopes depend on Takeda making the most of Fruqzala globally. They should be close to an underlying profit.
No surprises….a very solid set of numbers.
Almost half the market cap is in cash, what an absolute steal for another pharma, no mention of a share share buy back programme/ and or dividend.
Strong numbers across the board, think this will go down well following Beigene yesterday.
I think it was a sector rotation into Beigene, HCM Inno etc were down.
I am not expecting any surprises today…but the time to find out has arrived
Market is as pessimistic as always been with this share. After an initial spike to above HK$ 25, during the first half hour of trading, it has been a downward slope in red until now. Are the market makers clever enough to foresee what’s going to come in the results?
Beigene reported yesterday after HK close.
Its sales were nearly doubled to $2.2bn led by $1.1bn in US sales.
It consumed $1.2bn in its operations (this is a third better than 2022) and it gained $0.4bn from returns on its cash/near cash investments leaving it with funding of $3bn at the year end.
While its cash burn is reducing it is still some way from making a profit on its business activities.
Shares were up 5% today.
HCM is likely to show a gain in cash assets over the year due to the Takeda agreement, investment returns will provide an additional benefit……
Getting NDAs submitted in 2024 will pave the way for approvals in 2025, launches and then sales take off in 2026, which is when I suspect HCM will generate profits from its pharma business.
The company website is open to register for Wednesday’s results presentation (12:30 UK), the results are announced shortly before the presentation.
I expect a small IFRS profit and no dividend or buy back…if there is news of shareholder returns it should be a positive surprise for the market….A HK10c/UK 1p dividend would cost about HK$85m /£8m so quite affordable….and maybe in line with the Chinese directions to boost returns/value….a meaningful buy back would probably need to be closer to 5% of shares (40m) and cost more like hk$1bn/£100m which I think could be feasible in 2-3 years time.
Guess what else happened in July 21
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp
To put it another way, over three years the index has lost nearly 70% of its value.
This looks to be a new web site by HK bourse, many of the feature are 'coming soon' it would be good to know how the index weightings are calculated, especially as Hutchmed is at the top.
Index Index Level Return (%)
Hang Seng Healthcare Index 2,405.52 -67.69%
If you click the 5 year graph, then bring up HCM on Yahoo and the the same, the two high peaks of around $43/44 were in July 21- exactly matching the high peak on chart below of almost 8,000 for HK healthcare index - its now risen (slightly) to 2,400.
https://www.hsi.com.hk/eng/indexes/all-indexes/hshci
This chart really highlights the impact of higher rates, at one point the Healthcare index out performed HK by some margin only to drop back.
https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/dl_centre/factsheets/hshcie.pdf
In my view interest rates has been the single most dominating factor, over and above political issues, HFCAA and so on..
Drug revenues - have they made any headway in H2 v H1?
Early royalty revenues from Takeda and what they can say about early 24 sales.
How much of the Takeda upfront payment of $400m is recognised in the accounts will determine whether there is an overall profit or not.
Cost run rate (vs what they have in the bank?)
Is there already excess cash (do we think that is 2yrs operating expenditure?) And what do they propose to do with it. (Policy for dividends/guidance)
Pipeline - due dates for the submitted NDAs. What has happened with the Amdiz readout and possible NDA? Any update from Takeda re Fruq for GC. Firming up the delivery timetable for 2024/25.
Investor relations - it would be good if they would commit to providing a quarterly sales update. (Takeda and AZ do it already so we can see some sales data)
In terms of what maybe driving these movers up/down, the above index seems to have good correlation to Hutchmed, scroll to bottom for list of constituents.
The 3 month chart has certainly come off the bottom and could be benefitting from ETF buying mentioned in earlier posts below.
https://www.hsi.com.hk/eng/indexes/all-indexes/hshci
FDA has indicated a preference for Overall Survival over Progress Free Survival / durable response rate when considering full approval.
The impact is likely to mean more provisional approvals requiring confirmatory approval studies…..It also takes a lot longer to run the trials to get the OS numbers, this is expected to impact smaller pharma more than big pharma.
https://www.biospace.com/article/how-will-fda-s-pivot-to-overall-survival-affect-cancer-drug-development-/
Things I expect to and would like to happen this year:
Expect: Factory operational,
Takeda make significant sales progress in US, Europe and Japan, commences new trials (GC?) and combos with existing Takeda product.
Like:
Partner found to globalise Sovlep.
Inmagene buys out HCM options/HCM acquires Inmagene.
In-license portfolio of oncology drugs/ create a distribution channel (JV?) in China to improve productivity of sales force.
HCM makes a bolt on acquisition with some synergies and some new capabilities for the company..
IPSEN adopts HCM drug as a partner for Taz and commences a global study.
The HK market is closed for 2 days….should be lower volume trades on AIM and NASDAQ, but unlikely to be positive until HK reopens.
There seem to be hopes for a partial recovery in the wider market this year….but that will not be evenly spread….hopefully Takeda will make a lot of sales in the developed markets this year and pay $$$ royalties