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HK back over 18k, prop traders working overtime to cover..
ECONOMY
Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html
UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/ubs-sees-a-raft-of-fed-rate-cuts-next-year-on-the-back-of-a-us-recession.html
An interesting point from the IPSEN presentation to DB was that they have a minimum sales target of 300m EUR to buy in a drug/enter a partnership. So it would seem reasonable to infer that Suru cannot reach this target ex-china.
I did listen to the HCM presentation again and they said they were not pursuing Suru outside China at present….rather that do it themselves.
Thanks for that, interesting commentary in the first para given previous trials;
"The approval was based on the Ph3 MRCT FRESCO-2 (18% patients enrolled from the US) as well as the China FRESCO trial, implying the recognition of China clinical data by the FDA"
Perhaps there is potential for Surufati nib after all, that study also had bridging data from Japan could a smaller US study be added similar to above ?
CMB have posted a new research note with updated and upgraded financials
https://www.cmbi.com.hk/article/9075.html?lang=en
FCF starts in 2026
Dropped initially to match the US end of session but recovered that 3% to end broadly flat.
Still good volume.
There was always going to be one market caught out by the early FDA decision announcement….and the US did not like it.
The HK reaction today is positive in my view.
at the db meeting there was additional clarity over surufatinib, they have not found a partner due to the small perceived market….so they are going to do it themselves,,,presumably slowly if at all…..so surufatinib may be restricted to china, unless a new indication can be developed.
takeda have not given target sales….for fru*****inib.
sovlep said to be the next catalyst for the company…..still awaiting the effectiveness data for the slides
i cant recall amdiz featuring strongly, prepare for the trial to need more work.
It was so predictable apart from the fact of announced three weeks early !
Great news though..
Todays update from AZ notes $34m sales, this is down 1% (although up 6% at constant exchange rates).
This is consistent with the HY sales numbers….it seems NRDL inclusion will not benefit the pharma cos margin as volumes will drive cost of sales up - but given the licensing arrangement this is worse for AZ than HCM as HCM still gets manufacturing fee and a royalty on sales..
It should make management think twice about the benefits of NRDL inclusion - and reduce the discount on future applications (not sure that is feasible with renewals).
Amones, I think todays reaction is fairly predictable…..there was a big run up towards the PDUFA date and presumably the speculators on a positive result will cash up and move on to another bet. So for a few days there will be selling pressure.
The business itself is enhanced, and there is another $35m in the bank.
Takeda now has the task of selling the product, HCM will be able to bank the royalty stream.
The EU and Japan approvals can’t be far behind.
I expect this will drift lower for a short while…but the pipeline messaging is strong and there should be multiple NDAs and approvals in 24/25.
Also - Healthcare executives saying the effects of the anti-corruption drive are easing and US/China relations appear to be being nursed back to a better place.
I intend to Buy in Jan ahead of the results.
That's cracking news, what a win for Hutchmed/Takeda and of course patients that will benefit.
Hi volume in HK, prop traders hard at work, may need a day or two to settle down.
pdufa, 20 days ahead of the scheduled date, takeda’s fru*****inib has been given approval by fda. welcome news, but sp falters at hkse! what is wrong with this stock??
HCM presents on Thursday (links of the presentation section of the website)
For those interested IPSEN presented today - they are the owner of Tazmetostat outside China.
Their business model is to acquire products through M&A and they do not have a big scientific staff….sounds a good fit for a China based research company to partner with.
IMF raises China GDP forecast after Beijing’s policy moves
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/imf-raises-china-gdp-forecast-after-beijings-policy-moves.html
China going all out on the charm offensive
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/yellen-to-host-chinas-he-lifeng-for-talks-ahead-of-apec-.html
Updating with todays six month figures, certainly gaps closing but HCM still out in front by a fair margin.
I can't see how these movements have anything to do with PDUFA decision, this is quite broad rally.
HCM+28%
Innovent +18%
Beigene -0%
Junshi -13%
---------------------------------------------------------
HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
HCM initially jumped with many other bio pharma companies in HK, but then fell back to finish a fraction up when Beigene was up 10%.
Indicates to me that the market is beginning to resist the upward trend and perhaps the PDUFA rally has run its course? With risks now to the downside…..
Going to make short sellers jumpy everywhere..
South Korea stocks surge more than 5% for best session since March 2020 after short-selling ban
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/asia-stock-markets-live-updates.html
Interesting Jatw, only takes one, still high hopes for Takeda.
Chinese authorities stepping up measures to stabilise the stock market, could be one reason why H & G are now fully long.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/31/WS65403f56a31090682a5eb8af.html
Https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/deals-dashboards/china-m-a-activity-pharmaceutical-industry/
Not much has happened according to this article….esp when compared to the US where it seems a new deal by a mega cap to acquire a company for a few billion happens monthly.
Beigene / Innovent / HCM / Junshi etc all seem to be well capitalised but not to be able to go andbuy a competitor. I am expecting the CCP will start wanting to create national champions before too long….
For a while M & G have fluctuated their holding with part of it being short, something in the order of 5m shares or so - this position has now been reversed making their holding 100%, you would have to go back quite far to see the last time this occurred.
https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20231102E00003&sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=04%2f11%2f2022&ed=04%2f11%2f2023&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=04%2f11%2f2022&sced=04%2f11%2f2023&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&
That's the answer I was looking for, even if my question was a little confusing.
Good run recently along with a few other Chinese biotech's.
not sure exactly what you mean by other recognised combinations.
for tori - none in us, it has some mono therapies approved in china and has several combinations in progress. see slide 15 of their jpmorgan presentation on their investors page.
for hcm - they have hedged their bets with pd-1 using sintilimab (innovent) for fr*****inib combos…..both drugs linked with lilly and tori for surufatinib…and az has linked savo with tagrisso.
combos may be good at extending the franchise, but clearly the patient affordability means the total margin compared to mono therapy may well be lower….i am pretty sure az is using savo to extend the life of tagrisso and protect from generic versions when they become eligible.
they are exploring taz with their haemoncology portfolio.
Are there any other recognised combinations Jatw ?
In what could be good long term news Junshi has got its PD-1 treatment approved by FDA.
Toripalinab is the tori in the SURTORI combination trial….if this is much more effective than Surufatinib as a solo treatment this may be a new route to explore taking Surufatinib global. (Still awaiting news of their strategy).