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I won't let it go to my head.
We are so obviously going to substantially beat those forecasts. Part of the piece we are is the expectation we will but I think a lot of the good news we will get shortly on the update is not priced in yet.
Consensus revenue estimates fall to UK£113.0m
The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated.
2022 revenue forecast decreased from UK£198.1m to UK£113.0m.
EPS estimate fell from UK£0.76 to UK£0.69 per share.
Net income forecast to shrink 49% next year vs 37% growth forecast for Capital Markets industry in the United Kingdom .
Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£9.90.
Share price fell 3.6% to UK£9.34 over the past week.
nice to be up a bit when the market is well down. Shows we overshot on the retrace. I'm ever so slightly in the blue on my recent top up and W13 should be well up.
I bought some RR as I think Americans will grant Boris his request (maybe as early as tomorrow if this has been choreographed) to allow vaccinated Brits to visit.
RR's revenue is largely based on the per hour leasing of their engines not sale. SO less miles flown less revenue. Thus very sensitive to any recovery in passenger numbers.
That said RR is really a technology firm priced as manufacturing. Good long term ISA hold. It will come good but will be volatile for a while yet.
I’ve got 20 quid pencilled in for August 2024.
I agree that there has been a valuation multiple surge but as UE/Uk pre ipo tech and some on early funding rounds we are not generally frothy yet and can benefit from the repricing for some time to come. I’m very cautious to buy much into tech indexes and trusts of traded shares this side of a major retrace. Grow in my opinion still has enough gas in the tank that a hold, even though I think there is a serious risk of a general retrace within the next 2 years, is sensible as the uplift one will get beforehand is in my opinion likely greater than the retrace will be. Better to be on board. Even if the retrace occurs too early to have had the needed uplift it willl be short lived.
I think it's unrealistic not to expect volatility on something like this. The NAVs themselves will be volatile so it stands to reason our share price will be. At present we are in the real PE / VC up cycle, particularly for tech - hence the volatility has been primarily positive. VC is cyclical and there is a lot of 'hot' money out there at present that is driving valuations up and significant uplifts in the next phase valuations. Personally I think we might have peaked on the tech valuations in this cycle and could see anything that looks frothy come off, or even anything that isn't going to make money for years out come off. I could be wrong, either way I'm here for the price in 7/8 years not next 2 so I'm sticking around. I don't like doing it, but my new 2024 (3 year) share price prediction is £14.
I think a lot more good news on valuations to come shortly. Maybe they released these tidbits just to steady the market. It is not in grow’ s interest to have too company specific volitility as it deters investors in grow and leads to a lower average price and this makes fund raising more difficult.
Or maybe w
Looking pretty v shaped right now
Thanks for the liberan and numsis info
Yes it does show with this small example jittery investors things are going fine and we will equal or exceed last years stellar nav increase.
Good to see Draper partner, Nicola McClafferty, on the judging panel. Another opportunity to identify the best and the brightest new companies and fund them early on.
Maybe the RNS appeals to headline writers: "Soaring demand for car seller Cazoo gives valuation boost to backer Draper Esprit". All good publicity...
"Both Liberum and Numis have positive reactions to the portfolio update.
Numis emphasises that Draper Esprit will also benefit from an £99 million uplift in the July Series E $800 million funding of Revolut, and a £38 million uplift from a marking to market of its Trustpilot holding.
It says: ‘These known uplifts total £171 million which compares against the March 2021 gross portfolio value of £984 million (17% return), suggesting another period of strong returns for the group.’
Liberum is equally bullish, saying: ‘We estimate recent funding rounds by portfolio companies added 74p (10%) to the March NAV….Strong gains from the public technology companies since March should also support strong NAV performance when the releases its trading update next month.’
Was still reassuring just could have been so much more
Agree with all of that.
We all want to see post ipo exit updates. At the moment about 20 % of our nav Is tied up on shares in floated us exchanges at speculatively high multiples of earnings. Let’s get back to our stated core strategy and recycle that money in early funding of Uk eu private tech
That Investment update today was a bit lacking in information. It didn't really tell us anything much we didn't already know. It's key to me to know when (and if) we will be disposing of Cazoo, Trustpilot and Ui Path. It almost looked like information for the sake of it with no real incremental substance. Maybe I am being overly harsh but the update wasn't driven by regulation as such - Cazoo was known about etc. Am I missing the point?
My top-up yesterday was the second within a few days. Whether it's U or V or any other shape this still looks to be a great long-term bet: and as with 'Sage', I too have invested on behalf of the next generation.
Good luck. I bought some in my 3 and 5 year olds ISAs......not bothered about next 5 years with those. As long as they are in the money when 18/21 that's fine.
Good luck Steph, I believe things will be back on track in the next few weeks.
I know it's a mugs game and Sage wisely advises dead against but here goes anyway.
I think we are bumping along the bottom of this recent dip. It may be a U shaped dip and take a few weeks to start to recover properly. It might be a V shaped dip and recover in the next week or so.
I topped up big time so wish me luck. I just could not resist. Having had 11.80 just a few days ago I think we will return shortly if not on the update certainly by year end. That's a 15% short term rise that I don't think is as likely in any other share.
thanks for the form 3 update. Form 3 does not even list in our top 18 in our core portfolio but is flying. I just suspect we have many more flying below the radar in our portfolio. The sudden shift towards our portfolio due to the pandemic is just supercharging our portfolio which was doing very well pre pandemic.
The deliberate down valuation due to the pandemic in our 2020 returns was ridiculous but we have not fully re-priced properly to reflect the new stronger market for our sector and portfolio. We should a result have well above trend NAV/share increases.
I topped up again. Got my average down to a still terrible 10.80. You did well on that. Looks like we are now stable after the dip. Baring a general market big retrace I think we will crack 12 quid nicely on the update in late October. Maybe more.
I can't say that Form3, in GROW's portfolio, has caught my attention before but it turns out it is now handling a “double-digit percentage” of all UK Faster Payments and they are planning a US float. I think we have focused on a few well-known names but there are lots of other hidden gems owned by Draper Esprit.
Form3 provides a cloud-native, real-time payment technology platform to enable banks and regulated fintechs to create amazing products and experiences.
I'm same as you. I don't have the information nor expertise to judge the structure of the core portfolio in relative terms but the sector is where I want to be.
Quite take your point on the internationalization of valuations and the risk that creates from our UK/EU low multiples of earnings backwater. Still much of our portfolio still private and "domestic" and this has had limited impact on earing's multiples sued for last round or estimates.
My Dad once told me the American troops with their much higher military salaries then the UK troops in the war were resented a bit as they got the girls by splashing about. Not much changes.
It might be UK / EU tech from point of origin / set-up but in reality a lot of our portfolio will have an international stable of investors and hence a corresponding 'international' or 'US' valuation. There is no way Revolut would be valued as it was purely on UK market metrics. That looks very much like a US multiple valuation with the corresponding risk. Fine if it delivers and delivers relatively quickly, any mis-step, fall back in either the companies own growth trajectory or indeed the US market would hammer a valuation like that. I haven't analysed the portfolio at that level - I don't see the need as such. I am investing for uplift over a period. I don't trust Draper to get it 'more' right than others, but trust the sector will broadly grow over that period and we will follow. So a good relatively passive home (from my perspective) for some capital.
So Trustpilot about 40m contribution to first half results.
So just cazoo, Trustpilot and revolt alone are 220 m extra nav falling in first half. That's insane!
Maybe I'm missing something but I don't understand why our SP is below 12. Our portfolio is maturing nicely and generating big NAV/share upgrades. Sure some doubt as to whether this fabulous 2 years post March 31 2020 is replicable indefinitely but we are not priced to reflect this high rate of NAV/share growth.
At this rate trailing NAV/share will shortly be nipping at the heals of our SP. I respect SAGE's criteria but for my money I think it's wrong. Our growth rate should be better priced in. Sage and I likely agree that in the long run our NAV/share growth will lift our SP in proportion. The debate is from which starting point as a premium over trailing NAV/share will that occur. Also will that starting point shift over time as the market gets more familiar with us and prices in some more of our future growth.
I think it is silly for UIPAth to IPO on 46x earnings and for us to have a core portfolio NAV valued around 5x earnings. Either UIPATH is massively overvalued or we are undervalued or some combination in-between.
Totally agree on your points on post-IPO holdings and we can expect a Trustpilot exit in the next 10 days. If they have been selling down UIPath would that warrant an RNS or only if thresholds had been breached?