ContourGlobal Share Chat (GLO)

Maybe wise to cash out now. You can always buy back in….

Even though we don’t generate in the UK who knows! Just don’t want to startle the bidder.

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/stocks/industrial/ng-glo-drx-stocks-in-focus-as-govt-mulls-extending-windfall-tax

Usual caveats

Trek

For those looking for a quarterly divi payer as we discussed earlier I have just built a position in DUKE now that the huge recent placing has bedded in.

Google give 6.69% yield. If the recent hike is replicated it is 7.7% at 36p.

The placing was at 35p when the SP was much higher. I was hoping to get in at the placing price but it seems to be holding up. I reckon once the flippers clear it will move back to around 40p.

Duke runs a specialist loan book. Some may have concerns re rates but businesses always need money and will turn more to the likes of Duke. They undertake excellent DD!

Nothing stellar SP wise but looks a really steady income play. Was also tipped in IC a while back. Details on their website.

Oh and no third party fees!

Usual caveats

Trek

...from earlier this year....

ContourGlobal plc issued a Q1 trading update this morning. The current financial year has started positively and overall trading across the Group is ahead of the Board's expectation and continues to underpin the Board's confidence in the continued growth in dividends to shareholders. The Company will pay a dividend for Q1 2022 of 4.9115c/4.0128p per share , equivalent to $32.2 million which is in line with the Company's commitment to an annual 10% increase in dividend per share. Adjusted EBITDA was up 15.3% from $180.6 million to $208.3 million, strong cash flow generation with Funds from Operations reaching $112 million in Q1 2022. The business continues to generate solid top-line and EPS growth, distributions are generous with dividend yield at 8.8%. Valuation is a little unhelpful with forward PE ratio at 21.1 which ranks GLO 6th out of 7 names in the Electric Utilities and IPPs sector. PS ratio at 0.72 is a little more supportive. Everything else points to a solid business and solid investment case, but one to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

https://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/GLO/439

All differing views help make a market.

I like quarterly payers as they tend to smooth out the divi, and often the SP doesn’t even discount it but those stocks are few.

I don’t like trusts, ETF’s etc as the costs eat into profit and I notice that the punters that push them on the likes of ii seldom account for the fees!

For bi-annually divi stocks it depends when you bought. Many have been flat at best over 5 years. Most have actually declined.

So if the charts are flat why keep your money invested for a whole year when it only needs to be in the market for two key periods of time.

You can buy ahead and time your exit after using the same cash to grab other divi’s through the year.

Also stocks are seasonal so why be in the whole summer when you can sell in March/April and buy back Aug for the majority of ftse100 interim divi’s you get the gist

That’s where my excel comes in.

With macro like it is, war, inflation, pandemics etc you don’t have to add in risk.

That said I trade higher risk AIM stocks in between.

I don’t trade everything some I hold a core and trade, some I just hold.

I certainly don’t buy the theory that time in the market is the best way!

But I do appreciate everyone’s circumstances and skills are different.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Up to 2015 I used to take my dividends in cash and then look for opportunities elsewhere, however I then read the Intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham and changed to automatically reinvesting the dividends.
My ISA now consists 18 dividend paying shares, 14 of which are in the FTSE 100, I quite like waking up in the morning and there is more money in my ISA than when I went to bed followed by more shares in my stocks.
I am disappointed that GLO has been snapped up as it was a quarterly dividend payer, still I did make a realised profit of +49% in the 12 months I held them for. I sold out of GLO yesterday & bought into LGEN as I said I would in an earlier post, the reason being LGEN's price had dropped 8p from £2.64 to £2.56 so it wasn't worth waiting for another potential 4p divi from GLO. I still have the last GLO dividend to come on Friday which I will then reinvest in LGEN.
I can say in the last 6 years I have made more money sitting on my hands, drip feeding my existing equities and letting the dividend snowball effect take place than I ever did in the previous 10 years when I was stressing about daily price movements and the effect on my P&L.
Good luck all with investing your GLO cash!

Appreciate that trek . Thank you. Have a great evening .Sam

I always take cash for any divi. So if you sell you don’t have a small position.

With cash you can top up your divi if you wish to reinvest and pick your price.

That’s just my preference not necessarily the best for all as I am an active investor.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Hi trek, would you take the dividend as cash or in extra shares ? I am down to a few thousand now but not quite sure what to do ? Most grateful .Sam ps loving phoenix !

Phoenix i have held LGEN for a while now has been one of best holdings excellent divi even paid during the pandemic when everyone else was running for the hills....don't think you can go wrong putting you earnings from GLO there in my opinion of course....

Thanks Trek, will be keeping a very close eye for the right entry point. Perhaps coming if 54 votes in ? !!

Yep that’s correct. Furthermore, there may be a chance to add or buy back in to get any difference prior to completion.

Obviously you have to factor in spread and costs but there is decent discount atm.

Usual caveats

Trek

In the RNS dated 17th May 2022, shareholders who receive the 4pps dividend on the 10th June will receive a 1.59pps pay out and not 1.63pps. The next quarters dividend if paid will also be deducted from the price. So as a long term holder I will either receive 1.59pps or 1.55pps depending on timing?
Once this has been put to bed and I receive the cash into my account I will be putting the lot into LGEN for the 7% dividend, just a pity the dividends are nott paid quarterly!

Hi Trek, looking to perhaps buy some more of these. 9p a share more in November for any bought now. There seems to be some confusion over the Sept 9 dividend. Surely one will get this as well ? and then the 263 in November ? Some are saying a dividend is going to be deducted from the 263 ? Grateful for your thoughts as always. Best regards Sam

Noted. Market just took the divi off of 4p.

Built myself a little excel to factor in the changes. Could be a well timed ‘9 dart finish’ here to make a few bob ahead of closure.

Those that follow the story will understand what I am saying.

Usual caveats.

Trek

My first post on what was my favourite holding, though as many have mentioned over the last week such a shame coming to an end. So while I have taken the plunge on posting, thought I'd canvass opinion on investment approaches.

Firstly, I've been investing/trading(?) for about 18 months, and as others have said super appreciative of posts from Trek and many others on this forum/other boards for their insight and perspectives - thank you.

Moving on from GLO, as we have to, I'm curious what tools/set-ups others have to support their portfolios.

Me sharing (for what it's worth, probably more for newcomers) for the first six months was a lot of learning/trial and error though now after the last 12 months I'd summarise where I'm at, which is I use....

• iWeb - relatively low cost service, web based(no mobile app).... gives me access to the market.
• Fairly sophisticated Excel sheet (imv :-D) that uses Excel STOCK function to drag down data, alongside web site data lookups to pull info. on yields, dvd dates, prices etc....have a dozen tabs or so allowing to me create a personalised portfolio, to track buys, sells, dvds, watch lists, profit/loss, history, pivot tables etc....
• Read a few books along with lots of internet reading, e.g. Naked Trader, stockpedia
• I use dividendmax, marketscreener, dividenddata, Barclays technical analysis, company websites and of course LSE
• I don't pay for any subscription services, thinking/feeling I can get most of what I need in the public domain - but not sure if I'm missing out
• My portfolio is about 5-10% speculative (I'd be down if lost out, but thinking the potential upside is worth it) 40-45% growth/dividend and 50% dividend.

The above landed me on GLO so would be interested to hear what others do/their approaches.....
• Do you use a tailored spreadsheet or just rely on the dealers web site ?
• Do you use any paid for subscription services such as market screener, simply wall street.....whats so great about them, heard/read about Level II access ?
• Just starting to take a look at technical analysis charts.....mulling that over, any hints/tips re:Technical Analysis where to read up, other websites of interest - it looks like data overload where one could easily get lost?

Of course each to their own approach/personal choice, though be interested to see what others think if they want to share.

Thanks,
Paul

Hi Trek, greatly appreciated. At the moment I have kept half of my contour global and depending on events, may move it at some stage. Direct line a definite I think and and am now tracking its price. I have tended to buy and hold in the past but am being tempted more and more to deal more regularly when I think a share is near its high. The two investments I did make last week were into oncimmune holdings and i3 energy. June 1 st I am attending my first agm in ages for east imperial, a share I am well down on at the moment and if I am not happy with the agm will take the hit...... something I am loath to do. The US market is key for it now. Lets hope for another good week .... and a counter offer. By the way I agree with you so strongly about the need for a sovereign wealth fund. Unfortunately ALL our politicians are so short sighted though. Thank you once again. Back now to do some more research !

You're right about being sold cheap....can only hope someone puts a counter bid in.....still gutted about the sale but £3 a share bid would make it a little bit better......

Just catching up on todays RNS’s I see NFC have paid 10 x annual profits for M&C saatchi. A near 50% premium to the closing SP!

We get 36% premium. You can forget the VWAP as the sp has been distorted by the Ukrainian war.

So a 70.2p premium to the close. How long does it take to get that premium back?

Well if you just use the divi. In one year it pays 16.05p. In 4 years the divi hear based on the 10% year on year compounding as per policy is 74.49p!

So the divi pays the premium back in less than 4 years!

Then you factor in that the divi is 2.8x covered by cash! So that is under 2 years!

Ebitda was up 17% to $842m with a solid 52% cash conversion ratio! And we are/were valued at 1/3rd of EV!

Then you add in the 33m (from memory) for the Brazilian assset disposal!

And then factor in the energy macro!

This company is pretty much a cash printing machine!

It has been bought for a song! It’s an immediate ROI given it’s assets!

The biggest problem is Reservoir our biggest shareholder who clearly want a quick sale and the BoD that are around their finger! But you have to ask why.

It’s clearly back to private ownership because our UK markets refuse to attribute appropriate value to these companies. The BoD have tried and no matter what the SP languished as cheap!

They have obviously been under pressure to get value back for the major shareholder.

I have no immediate answer for it. That’s the job of the LSE but then it’s has to be a free market.

Not getting political as I have voted for them all at some point but I do think a UK sovereign wealth fund would help.

I am not a fan of windfall taxes on investors, like the muted energy tax, but I do think the government should buy strategic long term investments in companies, take an arms length position and distribute the dividends back to the country through in country investment. That reduces taxes and creates a better business infrastructure.

You look at the trillions in QE that have basically ended up as share buy backs or filtered to junk bonds and currency depreciation . That money could have had a meaningful home and the income used to build hospitals, refit schools etc.

Anyways, it’s my own a political view and another huge missed opportunity as our leaders of whatever colour seem to just have a short term view based on self.

And yes I guess by trading I probably don’t help. But I am self funded from pretty much zilch and the trading, which incidentally pays a lot in tax is a symptom not the cause.

A thought for the weekend!

Usual caveats

Trek

You pretty much can’t go wrong with the major insurers. Their tier 1 capital ratios give investors huge protection now and yes DLG is a good bet. I have traded them very successfully. Recently grabbed divi sold and bought back at 237. I will be out again at 260.

Not advice but I have a spreadsheet of high divi stocks and their xd dates/yield etc. I then use TA to buy ahead of the divi and to sell. Sometimes I sell half before and leave half other times I may collect the divi then sell when the SP recovers from the drop.

For bi-annual payers in this highly volatile market you don’t need to tie up all your cash waiting for the divi. You just need to be invested at the right times. If you look at the charts for ABDN, MNG, CSN, LGEN etc for 1 to 3 years you can clearly see that they are trading shares. To illustrate the difference look at the chart on AAF. That is an investors share to hold and hug with a steadily glidepath and increasing divi.

Insurers are more volatile than folk think and if you buy the top it’s a lower yield and you stare at red in your pf. Never be afraid to sell and buy cheaper or reduce and re buy like 50% at a time. It’s not for everyone as it is hard work but it’s an alternative to hold and hug which really is for trusts/funds and not always suitable for shares.

I made over 20% on MNG and am waiting for sub 200p to buy back in again. If it doesn’t happen there are always other opportunities. In hindsight with that one I should have held a marker from my low buy to build back up from. Always learning!

I have researched some of the closed ended funds recommended below. Some I have written off purely because the costs are so high. One was even 3.35% from memory!. There are a few that I will dig deeper later and will put them all on a spreadsheet so I can compare and scrape data easier. But that’s why I prefer shares, no management costs.

My dealing costs are only £3.99 a trade so I can move in and out pretty quickly. The recent volatility has provided loads of opportunities! The S&P just touched bear territory today, 20% drop. So you don’t want to be all in on certain stocks.

Anyways it’s been a great week this week!

For those looking for a long term growth play with immediate SP catalysts. Check out PXC. Cracking price atm, my average there is 52p. I have mentioned it before but there has been legislative news released today that will accelerate permitting in USA.

For those looking for some shoot or bust excitement where the short term upside could be like 10x check out CLON. Massive high impact drill with 33% COS but they are drilling part of a producing gas fairway (Western Australia) which has had an 88% success rate! All said it’s still super high risk so £100 or a couple of £k. Whatever your risk appetite is but I wouldn’t buy more than you can afford to write off. If you get more there will likely be an opportunity to take profits ahead of TD.

Usual caveats

Trek

Def a contender. thank you

Aviva tipped in the Times today, currently yields about 7.45% and forecast to increase in years '23 and '24.

Sam, have you thought about Direct Line? Its paying a dividend of 9% and a good chance of capital growth imo.

Hi Trek, the more I look at this the more it is annoying. I have tried to strike a balance between income shares, used either for income or investment in more or different shares, and more speculative one's where the potential for a real profit is. At the moment I have approx 80 per cent income, which includes this share as well as bp, glaxo, diversified energy, anglo pacific, next energy,taylor maritime (tmp $) for example. On the more speculative, phoenic copper, savannah energy, ebiquity, east imperial and redx pharma . So when contour goes I have a real dilemma as many of the income shares are already at a high. I know people talk about henderson Far East but I do fear that China is going to kick off at some stage and am exposed to that scenario already through Anglo. So in summary I wish this event had not happened ! I also am holding at the moment as will get the two dividends and in the current energy market there could yet be a counter bid. The trials and tribulations of investing ! Best regards Sam

Quelle surprise!
https://youtu.be/D2t4u_tEefM
Between them and Blackrock, they own the world!

Just adding my belated thanks, Trek. MF put GLO on my radar, but you gave me the thorough background and confidence to buy sub 190, which I kept doing. I only ever picked up 1 divi here before selling the lot yesterday morning. Will 'DYOR' the best I can, but closely following your tips/advice, as I am sure many others are.