We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Trek, looking to perhaps buy some more of these. 9p a share more in November for any bought now. There seems to be some confusion over the Sept 9 dividend. Surely one will get this as well ? and then the 263 in November ? Some are saying a dividend is going to be deducted from the 263 ? Grateful for your thoughts as always. Best regards Sam
Noted. Market just took the divi off of 4p.
Built myself a little excel to factor in the changes. Could be a well timed ‘9 dart finish’ here to make a few bob ahead of closure.
Those that follow the story will understand what I am saying.
Usual caveats.
Trek
My first post on what was my favourite holding, though as many have mentioned over the last week such a shame coming to an end. So while I have taken the plunge on posting, thought I'd canvass opinion on investment approaches.
Firstly, I've been investing/trading(?) for about 18 months, and as others have said super appreciative of posts from Trek and many others on this forum/other boards for their insight and perspectives - thank you.
Moving on from GLO, as we have to, I'm curious what tools/set-ups others have to support their portfolios.
Me sharing (for what it's worth, probably more for newcomers) for the first six months was a lot of learning/trial and error though now after the last 12 months I'd summarise where I'm at, which is I use....
• iWeb - relatively low cost service, web based(no mobile app).... gives me access to the market.
• Fairly sophisticated Excel sheet (imv :-D) that uses Excel STOCK function to drag down data, alongside web site data lookups to pull info. on yields, dvd dates, prices etc....have a dozen tabs or so allowing to me create a personalised portfolio, to track buys, sells, dvds, watch lists, profit/loss, history, pivot tables etc....
• Read a few books along with lots of internet reading, e.g. Naked Trader, stockpedia
• I use dividendmax, marketscreener, dividenddata, Barclays technical analysis, company websites and of course LSE
• I don't pay for any subscription services, thinking/feeling I can get most of what I need in the public domain - but not sure if I'm missing out
• My portfolio is about 5-10% speculative (I'd be down if lost out, but thinking the potential upside is worth it) 40-45% growth/dividend and 50% dividend.
The above landed me on GLO so would be interested to hear what others do/their approaches.....
• Do you use a tailored spreadsheet or just rely on the dealers web site ?
• Do you use any paid for subscription services such as market screener, simply wall street.....whats so great about them, heard/read about Level II access ?
• Just starting to take a look at technical analysis charts.....mulling that over, any hints/tips re:Technical Analysis where to read up, other websites of interest - it looks like data overload where one could easily get lost?
Of course each to their own approach/personal choice, though be interested to see what others think if they want to share.
Thanks,
Paul
Hi Trek, greatly appreciated. At the moment I have kept half of my contour global and depending on events, may move it at some stage. Direct line a definite I think and and am now tracking its price. I have tended to buy and hold in the past but am being tempted more and more to deal more regularly when I think a share is near its high. The two investments I did make last week were into oncimmune holdings and i3 energy. June 1 st I am attending my first agm in ages for east imperial, a share I am well down on at the moment and if I am not happy with the agm will take the hit...... something I am loath to do. The US market is key for it now. Lets hope for another good week .... and a counter offer. By the way I agree with you so strongly about the need for a sovereign wealth fund. Unfortunately ALL our politicians are so short sighted though. Thank you once again. Back now to do some more research !
You're right about being sold cheap....can only hope someone puts a counter bid in.....still gutted about the sale but £3 a share bid would make it a little bit better......
Just catching up on todays RNS’s I see NFC have paid 10 x annual profits for M&C saatchi. A near 50% premium to the closing SP!
We get 36% premium. You can forget the VWAP as the sp has been distorted by the Ukrainian war.
So a 70.2p premium to the close. How long does it take to get that premium back?
Well if you just use the divi. In one year it pays 16.05p. In 4 years the divi hear based on the 10% year on year compounding as per policy is 74.49p!
So the divi pays the premium back in less than 4 years!
Then you factor in that the divi is 2.8x covered by cash! So that is under 2 years!
Ebitda was up 17% to $842m with a solid 52% cash conversion ratio! And we are/were valued at 1/3rd of EV!
Then you add in the 33m (from memory) for the Brazilian assset disposal!
And then factor in the energy macro!
This company is pretty much a cash printing machine!
It has been bought for a song! It’s an immediate ROI given it’s assets!
The biggest problem is Reservoir our biggest shareholder who clearly want a quick sale and the BoD that are around their finger! But you have to ask why.
It’s clearly back to private ownership because our UK markets refuse to attribute appropriate value to these companies. The BoD have tried and no matter what the SP languished as cheap!
They have obviously been under pressure to get value back for the major shareholder.
I have no immediate answer for it. That’s the job of the LSE but then it’s has to be a free market.
Not getting political as I have voted for them all at some point but I do think a UK sovereign wealth fund would help.
I am not a fan of windfall taxes on investors, like the muted energy tax, but I do think the government should buy strategic long term investments in companies, take an arms length position and distribute the dividends back to the country through in country investment. That reduces taxes and creates a better business infrastructure.
You look at the trillions in QE that have basically ended up as share buy backs or filtered to junk bonds and currency depreciation . That money could have had a meaningful home and the income used to build hospitals, refit schools etc.
Anyways, it’s my own a political view and another huge missed opportunity as our leaders of whatever colour seem to just have a short term view based on self.
And yes I guess by trading I probably don’t help. But I am self funded from pretty much zilch and the trading, which incidentally pays a lot in tax is a symptom not the cause.
A thought for the weekend!
Usual caveats
Trek
You pretty much can’t go wrong with the major insurers. Their tier 1 capital ratios give investors huge protection now and yes DLG is a good bet. I have traded them very successfully. Recently grabbed divi sold and bought back at 237. I will be out again at 260.
Not advice but I have a spreadsheet of high divi stocks and their xd dates/yield etc. I then use TA to buy ahead of the divi and to sell. Sometimes I sell half before and leave half other times I may collect the divi then sell when the SP recovers from the drop.
For bi-annual payers in this highly volatile market you don’t need to tie up all your cash waiting for the divi. You just need to be invested at the right times. If you look at the charts for ABDN, MNG, CSN, LGEN etc for 1 to 3 years you can clearly see that they are trading shares. To illustrate the difference look at the chart on AAF. That is an investors share to hold and hug with a steadily glidepath and increasing divi.
Insurers are more volatile than folk think and if you buy the top it’s a lower yield and you stare at red in your pf. Never be afraid to sell and buy cheaper or reduce and re buy like 50% at a time. It’s not for everyone as it is hard work but it’s an alternative to hold and hug which really is for trusts/funds and not always suitable for shares.
I made over 20% on MNG and am waiting for sub 200p to buy back in again. If it doesn’t happen there are always other opportunities. In hindsight with that one I should have held a marker from my low buy to build back up from. Always learning!
I have researched some of the closed ended funds recommended below. Some I have written off purely because the costs are so high. One was even 3.35% from memory!. There are a few that I will dig deeper later and will put them all on a spreadsheet so I can compare and scrape data easier. But that’s why I prefer shares, no management costs.
My dealing costs are only £3.99 a trade so I can move in and out pretty quickly. The recent volatility has provided loads of opportunities! The S&P just touched bear territory today, 20% drop. So you don’t want to be all in on certain stocks.
Anyways it’s been a great week this week!
For those looking for a long term growth play with immediate SP catalysts. Check out PXC. Cracking price atm, my average there is 52p. I have mentioned it before but there has been legislative news released today that will accelerate permitting in USA.
For those looking for some shoot or bust excitement where the short term upside could be like 10x check out CLON. Massive high impact drill with 33% COS but they are drilling part of a producing gas fairway (Western Australia) which has had an 88% success rate! All said it’s still super high risk so £100 or a couple of £k. Whatever your risk appetite is but I wouldn’t buy more than you can afford to write off. If you get more there will likely be an opportunity to take profits ahead of TD.
Usual caveats
Trek
Def a contender. thank you
Aviva tipped in the Times today, currently yields about 7.45% and forecast to increase in years '23 and '24.
Sam, have you thought about Direct Line? Its paying a dividend of 9% and a good chance of capital growth imo.
Hi Trek, the more I look at this the more it is annoying. I have tried to strike a balance between income shares, used either for income or investment in more or different shares, and more speculative one's where the potential for a real profit is. At the moment I have approx 80 per cent income, which includes this share as well as bp, glaxo, diversified energy, anglo pacific, next energy,taylor maritime (tmp $) for example. On the more speculative, phoenic copper, savannah energy, ebiquity, east imperial and redx pharma . So when contour goes I have a real dilemma as many of the income shares are already at a high. I know people talk about henderson Far East but I do fear that China is going to kick off at some stage and am exposed to that scenario already through Anglo. So in summary I wish this event had not happened ! I also am holding at the moment as will get the two dividends and in the current energy market there could yet be a counter bid. The trials and tribulations of investing ! Best regards Sam
Quelle surprise!
https://youtu.be/D2t4u_tEefM
Between them and Blackrock, they own the world!
Just adding my belated thanks, Trek. MF put GLO on my radar, but you gave me the thorough background and confidence to buy sub 190, which I kept doing. I only ever picked up 1 divi here before selling the lot yesterday morning. Will 'DYOR' the best I can, but closely following your tips/advice, as I am sure many others are.
Good summary Trek. I had personally bought 17500 shares and sold the lot for 2.586. It was not any easy decision but overall I have cost myself £1000 in doing this now. That was considered when I sold the lot yesterday. I have slung some into DEC, some into VSL and some into GKP but have half left in which I am yet to find a home. I am a dividend investor and have actually improved my PF yield with yesterdays purchases. I just felt from where I was it was more beneficial to do it now that in 3 - 4 months time.
Maybe if i was holding more I may have looked at it differently and held on but I have been sitting on Petroteq shares for nearly a year whilst I wait for an hostile bid to transpire. I couldnt handle 2 of my stocks in the same position although this GLO looks very likely to complete. I dont think its as easy as someone making a greater offer when the current Bidco already own the majority share.
Very well said Trek , and I agree with every sentiment in your message. Things are going to get difficult for everyone and not least pensioners. I want to keep my standard of living as well as hopefully helping our children. By sharing knowledge these boards help enormously in that regard. Well done you. Warmest regards Sam
BTW Is default, just do nothing and 263 pennies will show up in your account sometime?
Interesting that you suggest GLO.L's biz has suddenly become trendy. And here was me holding it since ever just because it was a nice little divvy earner! Difficult play. We'll see how things go today.
Just saw this and other posts.
Thank you all for your kind words.
My view is if PI’s can make a few bob they tend to do some good with it and that helps make the world better.
We don’t win them all as it’s a flipping jungle and stuff is often loaded against us! But if we share and call it as we see it with honesty we can help each other even if it gives a different view or perspective. That’s what these BB’s are for.
I am thrilled that some folk have made a bit here even though many are loosing a steady income. Mine was 8.55% but the one off premium represents a fair few years divi up front to invest elsewhere.
Good luck with your investments.
Usual caveats
Trek
Apart from the obvious asset give away at 1/3 of EV!! what does it mean to PI’s contemplating selling now?
Assume you have 1000 shares…
T/O price 263.6p
You get 1000 x (£2.636-4p) = £2596 per 1000 shares.
By waiting you collect the divi = 4.0128 x 1000 shares = £40.128
So £2596 + £40.128 = £2636.128
Those selling now going by the last trades today on LSE get 256.5p.
So 1000 x £2.565 = £2565 (less your costs, I will leave out)
That’s a difference of £71.128 per 1000 shares..
For an average PI, I have no idea what that is, but say a few that invested may have up to 5000 shares, some may have 100000 but I bet most have a couple of thousand shares as they spread their risk elsewhere.
So the point is….
5000 shares = 5 x £71.128 = £355.64
100000 shares = 100 x £71.128 = £7112.8
Now factor in Reservoir Capital that have undertakings for 71.36% of the issued shares then you do the math!
So the price is well positioned so that it’s hardly worth holding the shares for the average PI but it is for much bigger holders.
That is why you are seeing buys coming through for say 200k shares because it’s worth taking money off LIBOR and putting it on risk here for those that can but for the smaller shareholders they are selling relatively cheap and Bidco are mopping up the shares and the votes!
For a large buyer it’s pretty much free money if it goes through as the vote is a forgone conclusion due to Reservoir’s huge holding and delay risk is underpinned by the next two close together divi’s and the obvious asset discount.
If you think this bid is undervalued as I do then others will to. Simple as. It’s just a question of time now. Hopefully potential bidders will be doing the numbers.
The oil majors are awash with cash and have been selling HC assets to develop renewables. GLO has an amazing pf of assets and it would be relatively easy to offload any you didn’t want as they run pretty much independently.
However, a ‘small PI holding’ would have to factor in the additional time and unknowns for say an extra 25p premium a share IF a counter bid came in. Again that may not be worth the risk but it may be for a larger holder.
For them the risk is also ‘as long as the deal completes’. However, favour is that the majority shareholders already have 75% of vote and there is unlikely to be any competition or regulatory conflict as it’s small scale assets.
So holders will get at least 259.6p a share + the divi if buying now and holding to the end or a 6.6p payment per share for waiting.
That’s £66 per 1000 shares! Or £3300 on 50k shares! (2.568% for 6 months). Not to be snubbed at!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price to move up as institutional investors work it through as the can also hedge the downside.
I intend to hold the ones I have now. I may sell some if I need the cash but am not selling out otherwise.
Usual caveats
Trek
Like others have posted just want to say thanks Trek .....your thoughts and in sights were most welcome.....think i brought into this after reading one of your posts else where on this site...So if you ever find yourself in Southampton let me know and will gladly buy you a pint or two....gutted to be losing this stock as have said earlier
Congrats long term holders.
I sold out a few weeks ago as was short of money and wanted to cash in on the fall of Meta and Baba.
Alway planned to buy back in asap but alas.
Shame in a way as another good small UK company being picked off before it has the chance to show it's true potential but well done anyone making a good profit as that's what the game's all about
Thanks for all discussion of alternatives for reinvestment of GLO proceeds. When the price is right I also like SHED, TEEC, PHNX, CTY, LXI, EPIC, VSL, but there’s nothing quite like GLO!
I have thought for a while that SSE might be on the radar of one of the big energy players and the GLO takeover certainly plays to that scenario. I would imagine that many companies in the power generation sector are potential targets now. Worth being invested I would say.
Although GLO was yielding about 8.5% yesterday that has now dropped back to around 6.25% based on the takeover price. I want to stay in the power generation / renewable sector but will invest a proportion of my holding in a fairly secure high yielder such as LGEN or M&G and the remainder possibly in GSF and NESF. I could maintain a 6.25% yield that way. Anything to do with power gen or storage appears to be under 6% apart from NESF. Just some thoughts which could be blown out of the sky by the 4th quarter. I saw VSL mentioned and I am a holder of that stock and it has always been a reliable payer. However, I find the company difficult to fathom out, their RNS announcements even more so. I am a long term holder of CSN, RECI, AEW and CLIG. All of whom have been reliable payers. At the end of the day a counter bid for GLO would be the best outcome, it does seem an undervalued offer.
Thanks for the useful tips for replacements.
Also worth a look - Diversified Energy DEC pays a 10% dividend (with US wihholding tax), growing nicely and very committed to the dividend (they fix 90% of the revenues - gas). Tend to get overlloked by as the accounts are messed up by non-cash MTM on their hedging. They are going for full US listing in June and this may provided a kicker.
Regards