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Straycat all I am trying to do is provide some positive noises to counteract the constant stream of sentiment bashing .
TBH Im surprised they get off with it. I would have thought they would have receieved legal warning letters by now.
Thanks for the clarification.
Indrid , you have a point and I have never claimed to be correct and always put IMO after posts. This is a discussion board .
It is possible to offload shares without selling them on the open market. GKP as you are all aware is in a politically sensitive country so it is unfair to expect them to be allowed to be as open as they wish. IN MY OPINION
The rest is history , I prefer to look forward rather than backwards.
"Why would any large investor , knowing what it may be worth , accept an unrealistic valuation when they have no need to "
SS - i just explained that in my previous post
"If any BH holder wanted to recover their investment then they could easily sell their shares now at a substantial upside "
but at the same time too much selling would cause the SP to tank. if a billion dollar offer came in thats a very different scenario than offloading in chunks on the open market/at market price
"It is most certainly not the competence of the BOD"
but they are the ones accountable at the end of the day and the fact they give us pretty much nothing but ambiguity on lots of key issues, does call in question their competence or at least their actions. you can argue they have to abide by what the KRG says, but they also could take the stance to take a stand DANA style, of course thats risky but its still a choice they have
obviously there is lots of history with this share in terms of different camps, those ramping, those de-ramping, but thats a side show........i am long term bullish IF things go to plan, but as we know with GKP curve balls are always thrown at shareholders and i think its silly to say if a sale occurs it will only be based on the assets worth........with GKP i have learnt to hope for the best but to expect summat s h i t to happen now and again!
Whats the issue ?
All standard stuff when you are dealing with Contractors OR as I said maybe other issues that cant be disclosed.
Answer this one . Why did my previous posts get such an instant over reaction from the trolls ? Who yet again have embarrassed themselves by their total lack of knowldege and experience.
Why dont you focus on them ?
"The other board has been infested by a clique and now this bb has too. A clique that posts under different avatars but who all share the same aim"
did BB really just write that - the irony has knocked me off my chair
In connection with possible delays to work programmes and management culpability, you posted this morning that:
‘It is certainly not the competence of the BOD because they dont carry out the work – Its contracted out. This is yet another false rumour.’
And yet on 10/7/2019 you posted on JF behaviour as follows:
‘ He (JF) is now reporting delays with procuring the ESPs and the entire 40k/55k programme has slipped. Some sort of “Act of God” in JF’s mind perhaps, rather than the far more obvious failure to achieve his publicly-stated objectives?’
‘Quite what the chairman and the senior director think about the performance of JF,SZ and their senior executive team really is anyone’s guess. I personally doubt that they would be very impressed, unless they are in charge of the brakes or are under someone’s thumb. SZ has surprisingly gone and nobody seems to know why. Is he going to be joined by JF? We shall see. Losing the pair of them in one go would cause panic and would surely be a last resort. Replace the CFO first, then the CEO?’
You can’t hold both positions simultaneously surreyscot.
Either JF evades culpability having contracted out his responsibilities to a third party.
(Note: like that’s possible when you’re on his earnings package!!)
Or he is failing ‘to achieve his publicly-stated objectives’ in which case, as you suggest, he should be replaced.
So which is it?
You’ve never operated at Boardroom level have you?
That’s the only plausible explanation for your contradictory posts on the matter of Director accountability.
BTW the expression of the current share price as being equivalent to a little over 2 pence, by dividing it by 100, is mathematically wrong. This is because other factors are involved.
If it were as simple as is claimed, the current market cap would be just 1% of what it was. And that simply isn’t the case. As I write, it is £506 million. If you look at a pre-Open Offer situation with around 800 million shares, and a share price at that time of say 60p, the market caps are about the same.
JF hasn’t added any value, it is true. But Genel is only worth about the same as GKP in market cap terms. Gulf shouldn’t be considered in isolation. Has something or someone been holding JF back? Other companies such as Genel simply get on and do the work.
The reduction in the number of shares is a factor which renders the “2 pence” metric false. But disappointed and angry shareholders and trolls aren’t interested in the maths.
The undiscounted current CPR valuation of Shaikan is just over $3 billion, on a 58% working interest and 2P Reserves basis. There is nothing included for the 2C Contingent, the 3P Reserves, the Condensate or the higher 80% working interest. MOL have said the 2P Reserves will increase and they were clearly in possession of the numbers in about October 2018. Surely they got them from JF?
If one were to assume that GKP might potentially reduce the # of shares to 200 million, then using say $4 billion as the undiscounted valuation of the GKP slice it gives $20 a share. What would a major pay? There is no way of knowing. The current GKP broker targets are $4.75 but such targets are shown in academic studies to be typically poor predictors.
If people don’t like Kurdistan, the KRG, Shaikan or the GKP board, the solution is simple. They should sell their shares. There are plenty of other companies in which to invest.
There you go again ...off at a tangent.
I never said it was "tabled" Broadfraud and if you had even the basic understanding of the bid process you would know that.
Offers are usually discussed informally in the first instance to "feel" the other party out. Which is almost certainly what Leftly got hold off.
As for the rest ? How do you know anything is ramping when the company has not yet been sold ? and I have one avatar - this one. I am not Habshan / Paul / Bob or any of the othjer fantasies you dream up to justify yourself.
C...eye, All very chummy at the moment with warm words, this has been the case for nearly a year, i have read many articles regarding talks, progress and the recent visit, but with absolutely nothing to show from it except the ever repeated sentence like this one all over the place.
" The agreement on the start of technical committees between Erbil and Baghdad on dialogues to resolve differences and outstanding issues between the two sides. "
Committees, dialogues, discussions, biscuit munching meetings, give me a break ( wink wink ) not quite given up, but ffs just do it.
You say that "The problem with GKP has always been troll posting..." - yet the very opposite is the case.
The problem with GKP is the unashamed RAMPING by posters such as you (and your ghosts) over the years. Whether it's the size of the field, the P2 reserves, the targeted output, the eventual output plateau, the secret accumulation, the "tabled Exxon bid" and of course the Chinese Takeover Tomorrow; ALL of this was pushed down the throats of bb readers as fact when in fact it was nothing but ramping your trading positions.
The other board has been infested by a clique and now this bb has too. A clique that posts under different avatars but who all share the same aim.
Show us your evidence of any Exxon bid that was "tabled".
The real fraud is you my dear chap.
'and we finally seem to be getting close to a political settlement between the KRG/ICG.' *Rolls eyes.
Thats true distressed , but there are lots of reasons for any SP movement. But that doesnt change the fundamental fact about the current excellent position of GKP. I'm sure you are also aware that the SP ( in any company) is not an indication of what the final sell price will be.
The problem with GKP has always been troll posting , the large majority of which is intended to control the way you think. Its very well done indeed and obviously organised . ( IMO ) But why are they so persistant ? In any case my view has never changed. The company is heavily undervalued and is worth the same , if not more , than when the Exxon bid was tabled. Whether you , or anyone else , accepts that is up to you /them.
Need more honesty and less optimism like your post. Well said.
Everything you post makes perfect sense in a perfect scenario, which this is clearly not GKP it cannot even hold it`s relative rise from good news it almost always has a 5-10% rise and then almost by magic falls away within days, a clear pattern that is irrelevant of who post`s what
Of course there is the argument that it could be sold or even get the desired share price value but there is absolutely no evidence that this will happen based on the last ten years IT IS STILL OLD MONEY JUST ABOVE 2p with no clears signs of change
Indrid I dont share your view point. If any BH holder wanted to recover their investment then they could easily sell their shares now at a substantial upside . Something which has already happened with Taconic. Also any sale would have to be agreed and approved by MOL and the KRG.
I agree its been a frustrating and emotional journey , not helped by a continuous stream of misleading information predicting doom and gloom posted 24/7 by the usual suspects. However the Company is in the best shape it has ever been in and we finally seem to be getting close to a political settlement between the KRG/ICG.
There is no evidence this will " go on for ever " and possible reasons for delayed work programs have been posted before. It is most certainly not the competence of the BOD because they dont carry out the work - Its contracted out. This is yet another false rumour.
As for nagging about a valuation of GKP ? This is not currently possible because we will not know what the actual valuation is until we see the new Field Development Plan and associated CPR. In any case I have always been careful not to predict either a sale price or valuation. Purely and simply because I am not qualified to do so. But some past research on statements from GKP should give you a reasonable answer.
I am neither desperate or "bet the farm" . We have had this discussion before.
Again. GKP will be sold based on the value of its assets. Oil/ Process Plant etc / Cash in Bank and what it is owed etc . All of which are currently valued at more than $1 billion. Why would any large investor , knowing what it may be worth , accept an unrealistic valuation when they have no need to ?
At least one BH is on record as stating " why should we sell we know what its worth".
Thank you Indrid, I couldn't have put better. Some desperate sounding people who bet the farm actually believe the City have the same motivations and targets as them. Hilarious really.
i disagree SS.......broadfraud is inherently dishonest as he is just oilmans puppet
i dont see what the issue with ****eyes post is.........if the major shareholders have a choice between $1billion now (and thats very healthy return) or holding out for years to come with an always under performing SP and the uncertainty from everything from politics to competency of the BOD, to the field to the oil price........they can vote through a sale at a billion without any care for what "might happen" in the future..........you can nag on about how much shaikan is worth, but to shareholders its only worth what someone is willing to buy it for and trade its shares for
Not as much as ****eye :)
Why would the BH sell at a $1 billion when they know its worth much more ?
oh shock......broadfraud is talking nonsense yet again
Broadfraud, I am baffled by your remarks.
GKP and MOL have repeatedly stated that Shaikan is self-funding to 110,000 bopd. And that is from only a slice of the revenue.
So why do you say the following: "...until the ruling familly can inherit this ostensibly monster asset for buttons...". They have no (free) money - how on earth would they develop such a large field?
So are you accusing the boards of GKP and MOL of lying to the market?
Or look at it another way. Someone (“ruling family”) who acquires/steals 100% of Shaikan then gets 55k bopd pretty soon. That’s 20 million barrels a year. They could get at least $30 a barrel net after extraction costs etc, Which makes $600 million a year.
Are you saying that’s not enough for them to develop Shaikan to 110:000 bopd?
Or are you saying that “such a large field” can in reality produce more than 110,000 bopd?
What you are saying is inconsistent and simply doesn’t add up.
If only it were that easy .
I'm not sure if you're being facetious but I'll humour you. They could take take GKP out for less than a $1 billion right now and still have many Insti's happy.
How could they develop such a large field? Easy, borrow money against the money it makes and its low lifting costs. Then continue to hire Canadians and Brits, with the predominant Kurdish field staff as GKP presently do. GKP have about 30 western guys on that field, if that, who work 6 weeks on and off. No great expensive on the face of it, even with an uplift in production.
What utter *******s!
"...until the ruling familly can inherit this ostensibly monster asset for buttons...".
They have no (free) money - how on earth would they develop such a large field?
Surely you don't imagine they might even partially empty those offshore bank accounts or sell some of those expensive overseas properties?