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Oh I don’t think our masters need get involved in the vaguaries of playing GKP Stock to maintain their 8 digit Swizz accounts, they have much more direct access to the spoils from Kurdistan’s hydrocarbons produce.
The mystery remains as to why they continue to allow small oilers to bumble along producing a fraction of what their assets are capable of - or are they afraid of taking on the legal and commercial might of Big Oil ?
"At these poo levels GKP ebitda 2022 is greater than its current market cap
Lol"
Show us your computation. When you actually do some analysis rather than spouting repetitive BS you will find that revenues don't exceed market cap let alone EBITDA.
Hint: if you can work out the monthly receipt given an average BOPD production figure and average price of Brent (something people have been doing here with a high degree of accuracy YTD) then you can easily do the computation for a full year at 55k and $85 Brent (or whatever other scenario you care to run). Do the basic maths. Calculate oil sales and make an assumption regarding hedging costs (note 4 to the 6m 2021 financial statements) to get Revenue. Then deduct a couple of the items in note 5 to the 6m 2021 financial statements. Finally deduct Other G&A. Only then are you close to EBITDA. It's not f*cking hard to do.
ATB
Nice numbers there Xcruce - I have been here and in the Middle East long enough to be realise how things will pan out in reality:
I don’t think we will be allowed to make substantial profits as our masters will of course demand their personal cuts, approval of the interminally delayed FDP will have it’s price (or it won’t be signed off), any sale or farmout will of course have a price tag…. I think we must face up to how things are and will continue to be run around here, and price the pilferring in to all lookaheads as a matter of fact.
Having accepted that - I must say that things are looking much more positive than I can remember since the glory days of Tod’s hype campaign.
man*
My gut feel was refering to you and your motive. Like I said I could be wrong, Im not calling labelling you a narc by any means as that is a much over used term and a very damning one. When it comes to my valuation, I think sometimes people can get too bogged down in detail and forget about the bigger picture. (I myself have made money on the stock market just from basic fundamentals and patience.) Its just when you have dealt with truly evil people it makes you more aware of people who have hidden agendas. Like I said I could be wrong
As Solzhenitsyn once said "If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every msn"
C'est la vie 147king. It's just that I have little time for people who invest on - and, worse, promote - hype and hope whilst being too lazy to conduct and present factual analysis. I will wait for Arma to do some work on estimated revenues based on his assumed scenario. (Before presenting his analysis it might well be sensible to back-check it through, for example, 1H 2021 results just to get a sense of model accuracy.)
As regards valuation, I will let you know when I have sold as that will be the very best guide as to my view. (As of now it's a lot lower than your £7.50-£10.) I last bought just below 153p cum div. The last dividend was akin to selling some at 182p. I've not reinvested it given the price action ex div.
Of course, when reflecting on historical GKP prices, in the very least, don't forget that the company has paid away a lot of cash since then (as well as issued a bunch of stock and further stock options in remuneration). Far better, in my view, to support your opinion of £7.50-10 with analysis rather just 'gut feel'.
ATB
(PS: albeit a minor point, Brent set a slightly higher peak at the end of September 2018 than it where it is today. The period thereafter wasn't as much fun. Hopefully the coming year isn't similar.)
Ok so given that the share price was £2.50 around August 2019, I thought the company was undervalued then. Then given the fact that the company is on the road to hit 55k, are now paying a dividend, oil price is the highest it's been in 5 years and will certainly go higher, FDP has been submitted and seems more likely than ever to get approved, the KRG are paying back money owed, the share price should be way higher. In my opinion should be between £7.50 and £10 a share right now. If FDP gets approved it should go even higher on potential production alone and they are sitting on a huge asset of oil.
Imho your posts always seem to have a negative slant to them in a passive aggressive way, you criticize other peoples positive valuation of the company (and I'm not talking about Paul) but you never give your own valuation. Seems a bit suspect to me. I'm not claiming to be an expert on company accounts or stock market valuations but I've I'm quite well versed in dealing with passive aggressive covert narcs and I just get that vibe from you. I could be wrong but that just how I feel.
"So Putuo, what is annual profit at 85 dollars and 55k bopd?" (sic)
Jeez Arma why don't you at least demonstrate some effort and attempt to come up with a reasonable estimation of, say, company revenues under your scenario? Maybe after that I will engage with you further down the P&L statement. Hint 1: I've given you two of the three parts of the answer already. Hint 2: annual revenues under such scenario are less than the current market cap of the company (despite what X says).
@147King why would lifting costs be proportional to the oil price? They're related to the costs of operation not the price of oil. One could expect a fixed cost component - and hence declining with scale - and a variable component ie per barrel that doesn't change much with scale.
So whatvdonyoubsee as fair price market cap for this company. And are you of the belief that lifting costs are directly proportional with the oil price?
So Putuo, what is annual profit at 85 dollars and 55k bopd?
Fuel is much cheaper in producer countries compared to non producer. Krg will be buying from gkp very cheap. so I dont think we will benefit much from high price .
Example in Qatar super petrol is Qr2.05 = £0.40 per letter.
The future appears to have the potential to become rosier then, but what confuses me is - why our masters don’t push us to bump up our production at all costs to give them their personal rights to skinoff from a much, much larger pie ?
Perhaps the indigenous population have drawn a line in the sand in an attempt to put a stop to their pilferring ?
Putup, the economics, in Real terms, are astounding.
100 million debt, and free money from black gold. A lake of it. For 30 years. In an energy strapped world, selling in to a soon-to-be inflationary period.
Oil will hit record highs I the coming years. Watch this space.
So Putuo, what is annual profit at 85 dollars and 55k bopd?
Highlander, yes, so 35 was breakeven, ergo... 85....
Yes. That’s why I own a bunch of it. But I’m not delusional as to its worth (even at $85 Brent and 55k bopd).
PUTUP answer this. At this share price do you think this company is undervalued?
Arma, you need to understand what constitutes “turnover”/revenue. Once again, read the financial statements and their notes. Try to understand the economics of this company rather than focusing on irrelevant numbers. ATB.
Gkp had zero revenue at 35 dollars Brent
Putup might I add, 85 dollars a barrel is magic money land any way you look at it.
We had survived on 30.
The maths don't lie. 1.7 billion is being turned over. A percentage of that is coming to me.
I wasin here '09, we hit 4.5 billion mkt cap and hadn't even started pumping.
I have a whole lotta faith.
In a world of inflation and turmoil, 20 percent dividend don't last long. Share prices always catch up.
Divi should be 2 to 5 percent of share price. Calculate according.
Jeez Arma. One of these days you'll actually have to do some calculations beyond Brent x volume, especially when you know we sell at a deep discount to Brent and the PSC determines who gets what.
In your scenario, even if the R factor were to be below 1 and the CRP weren't exhausted, Profit Oil is circa $166m and the CBC payment from this is approx $66m. Take a look at the financial statements and construct your own forecasted P&L statement. Don't be so lazy.
YES Tesla has been a rocket: and to think I opted for GKP back in 2013 !
Would have avoided 7 yrs of agro, made a serious fortune and could even have faced myself in the mirror each morning too !
Tesla mkt cap: 810 billion!
Put into context look at Tesla:
Tesla turned a full-year profit for the first time on record in 2020. Net income attributable to Tesla's common stockholders was 721 million U.S. dollars, while net income related to noncontrolling interests amounted to 141 million U.S. dollars in 2020.
That is generating 1,706,375,000 PER ANNUM.
How much comes to us at GKP?