The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Stebo - who am I to diss your perspective?
We both have the same goal...just using different arguments to get to it.
Z
Zoros, I feel that you are being just as pessimistic as Aquakidd is being optimistic!
I'm not sure you are correct on the 33p being based on 12+Moz, and then the other 50% of 66p being realised based on the FS, etc. I understood that the 33p arrives from a valuation of 66p based on 12Moz, but with a 50% risk factor applied, bringing the current (last Nov) valuation to 33p.
That 50% risk factor includes the risk of the total Moz not reaching 12Moz, etc.
Since that broker note we've had the following:
- Significant progress with the mine decline
- Newcrest have also made increasingly optimistic noises about the rate of progression
- We have also had further drilling results from Havieron, which have all been great,
- We've discovered a whole new segment to Havieron in the Eastern Breccia
- Plus the comment about a new separate discovery within the Havieron tenement
- Price of copper increasing which increases the AUequiv (and gold is still above the hedged $1400 rate)
- Whole new JV with Newcrest, plus loan agreement negating financing risks
To me the above significantly eats into the 50% risk allowance, and hopefully Wednesday's results will further that.
I don't think that the 40p mentioned is unreasonable. I feel like as of later there has been a narrative that the sp was over-cooked in the 30s. I disagree with this, and think that the current sp is the anomaly, however I accept that it is being driven by sentiment around gold, crypto, rainbow chasing, and whatever else is the flavour of the month.
The fundamental value is there for at least 35p, however that relies on the market being forward looking. I would expect a current Berenberg note to forecast an increased final Moz, and a decreased risk factor.
40p wasn't being dismissed in Dec, nothing negative has been discovered which should change that so don't let current negative sentiment (not the current sp) dictate a ceiling to the valuation.
Hi Bamps - absolutely. If newcomers (and some naive LTH's) come to understand that we are where we are because of the known knowns! How can anyone value the stock at anything else.
But the frustration is (for those of us who have done their research)...current value is the tip of the iceberg. Granted some results will be dusters...this is to be expected (covering such a vast area) but a significant number will ignite the SP over time. In addition and as you say, the BM's and PM's in this tenement (and its neighbours) will, at the very least 'carry' the cost of extracting the gold to the extent where the AISC will be very very low.
For LTH's this surely must bring calm and comfort to their concerns over what is in store for this stock.
IMHO: A minimum of 30p by PFS (september) 60p if GGP remain in partnership with NCM after the FS.
If Juri AND Scally come home......£1.00. A total buy out of GGP: £1.20p.
Z
Hi Zoros
What you have said about the MRE that officially we have 4.2m oz gold equivalent is true but it doesn't mean it will stay at that level. The figures used to work out the gold equivalent value have increased and at today's prices the copper would give an equivalent value of 4.32m oz.
Eventually other credits will also lift the equivalent value especially the cobalt, so the MRE is not a fixed value but officially it's the only figure we have.
ATB:))
Aquakidd - you're obviously new here. Posts like this do nothing to stabilise posters concerns over the value of their stock holding.
Let me remind you and more importantly others who haven't got a grasp of why we are - where we are:
To date the only basis for FACT is the MMRE, which unearthed 3.4Moz Au or 4.2Moz AuEq.
Everything else that has come from news reports / podcasts etc etc...are supposition.
The markets (including brokers) have run with what we all know to be fact (4.2MozAuEq).
They (brokers) have come up with a figure of 33p (risked) for the SP based on a projection of around about 12+Moz going forward probably when the next MRE is published in Q3/21. They further project that based on these new figures alone (IE: no other findings and no additional positive drill results from other tenements), the SP is worth around about 66p (derisked) post PFS / FS (GGP will only own 30% of the mine).
In summary:
At the next +ve review (MRE2) where mineralisation from the remaining crescent(s) and breccias reaches approx 12Moz+...the SP is expected to be worth 33p+ ish.
Post FS stage - 66p. (Confirmation that GGP will engage with NCM in full production)
We are @ 22p now simply because of back extrapolation of these figures (based on 4.2Moz).
A bigger find @ MRE2 / great results from Juri / great results from Scally and so on will obviously greatly improve the SP. But until then..based on our existing MMRE @ Hav only @ 4.2Moz:
20p - 25p(max).
Chucking wild unsupported figures like 40p into the mix - gives PI's false hope. Let's all try to understand why we are where we are. Of course, AIM / the markets are wildly unpredicatable and there could/will be spikes (as we saw a while back to 37P).
But atleast we are now stable.
Matters can and will only improve, but for Hav alone and nothing else, this stock can never ever reach £1+ or anywhere near it - unless something out of the ordinary happens (Bid? Massive MRE2 results?).
Z
If this runs to form ,I expect the next surge in price to 40p , and then back track to 30p ish , it surged to 20p and settled at 14p, and now 37p and settled at 21p , so don’t get caught above 30p next surge.