The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
A precise and sensible assessment of where we are TMT ..
@Bully "Junior gold mines are generally valued at around $250 per oz of gold for world class mines."
On it's own, this is not unreasonable. However, the recent Tropicana deal was more than 3x that. Obviously, Hav is different, but it proves incontrovertibly that not all junior gold mines are created equal.
Reasons to value Havieron higher:
1. We have funding so aren't over a barrel like many juniors are.
2. The CAPEX needed to bring Hav to production is far lower than many because of Telfer.
3. We're in the best jurisdiction in the world. Many others are in seriously risky or moderately risky jurisdictions.
4. We're partnered with a major. Many aren't. We aren't amateurs trying to put together a PFS like a certain company with an asset in South America.
5. We're partnered with arguably the best in the world at underground mining. Most aren't. That is going to make this asset more profitable than perhaps an equivalent resource being mined by someone else.
6. We're close to production, unlike many others which are sold.
7. IMO, this resource is unlikely to be sold, so the going rate for gold-in-the-ground is the wrong way to value Hav anyway. Your own comments suggest that you think the best value is to hold rather than sell, and surely GGP management is not dumber than you. There's a remote chance they are even smarter than you. So Hav should not be valued by comparison to other assets which have been sold, but by projecting our share of future cash flows and discounting them by an appropriate discount rate.
Depending on one's assumptions of the size of the resource, POG, AISC, CAPEX, cost of borrowing, and discount rate, I'd suggest we are significantly undervalued today. But of course, others may use different assumptions than mine. But I certainly do not think that $250/oz is the way Hav should be valued and so I do not think the current SP is where we should be today.
Part of the market agrees with me, and part doesn't, and that's how markets (and sometimes fortunes) are made. We will find out who is right in the coming years.
Mush ! Yes will do my best to come and laugh maniacally at your sketches. Welcome back :)
Hello Mushrooms,
Always keen to keep in touch - and now you are not far away.
Welcome home!
Yellowstuff
Hi Mush,
would like to meet up sometime in Stroud pub get together
Although I am from Wiltshire I am down your way and follow your news.
Excellent video from Bamps. I saw the light and sold out from CERP to join GGP in April last year.
Best wishes,
Guy and my Portuguese is dreadful.
Hi Mush - your thoughts are very similar to mine - disbelief and frustration at what has happened this year combined with dogged commitment to holding my position until sanity returns to the SP (hopefully soon!!) I will keep my eye out for anything coming up over in Stroud and will support it if I possibly can. Best regards to you and yours - come on GGP!!!
Hi Bully. Good post. One thing you are missing is "Potential". Waiting for official news will keep you with the herd. Speculating on what is "probably" there is a wealth maker (or breaker). The $250 in ground value is correct for the average small cap explorer/miner, GGP are a world away from that with a share of a tier1 asset that is almost guaranteed to be mined. Place your bets now before the inevitable rise to new highs. ATB Speedy
Hi Bully, happy to sit and wait but still surprised that the extent of drilling success, which was reflected in an sp that was based on 'expected' mineral resource, could fall back so. Maybe it is as you say and those seeking quick massive gains are floating around elsewhere.
So, I find myself back in the Stroud region dealing with some difficult family stuff and away from sunny Portugal for the foreseeable future. How life changes!
Last year, in lockdown, my spirits were kept up by a share price that continued to climb upwards and promised so much. This year it has been a battle to keep thinking positive thoughts when the combo of lockdown and declining sp battled to defeat me!
However, apart from some redistribution of shares between accounts, (isa type stuff etc) where naturally I mistimed 5 out of 6 and lost out) all is still intact. Everything is placed on GGP, like a pile of chips glued to a felt table.
Nevertheless, I wonder what has pulled our share down from a high of 38p to this low bouncing 20 to 23p and for several months. We have lots of good technical people constantly informing us about the superb grades and expected tier 1 status of Havieron and the possible galaxy size deposits if any of the other tenements hit. We KNOW we have a winner here yet still the market pulls the sp down and it stays down. We have loads of theories but it still doesn't make any sense to me and I still feel truly perplexed. It SHOULD be moving shouldn't it??
( Off subject and on a lighter note, despite some of the heavy crepe I am dealing with, I have been busy writing comedy sketches to be performed at the forthcoming Stroud theatre show so thedoors, yellowstuff, redirons and all, I trust you might go to the event!!I will write one about gold methinks.)
(Pps Panama...you can turn up in the sunglasses and yellow summer dress if you want. The vision, still printed, indelibly on my eyeballs).