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You’ve missed quite a lot of zeros off of your estimate there MM to get to your 19.14p...
im having an off day. do not do math when you have just got out of bed. lesson learned lol
Merc, $ 700 million dollars at today’s exchange rate equals £566.14 million.
Divide that by 4 billion shares and that equals 14p.
Over the years I have predicted a variety of outcomes on buy-outs over a range of stocks and the one thing I can claim to be 100% correct on - each and every time - is "overestimating the outcome!"
And I consider myself a realist!!!!!!!
If I share with you my belief that the buy-out on Havieron (should it materialize) will be between 13p - 19p, then anyone who places bets on 10p should be somewhere near the mark - if my past record is anything to go by.
Or could this be the "one" time I UNDER-estimated!?!?!?!
I bloody well hope so!
YL ;-)
Watch your decimal points Merc!
15,000,000 oz x $200 (conservative as we dont ned to build a mine) = $3bn
30% of that = $900,000
offer us $700,000 to get us out the way...... sp of 19.14p
Just for Havieron
I guess it could be paid in instalments Matty. It might even get connected to the actual production from the site or sites.
However, 60p seems too high to me.
Much as I'd love to see a buy-out at 60p a share (as that's me set for life!!!) unless my maths is somewhat out doesn't that equate to NCM paying us nearly $2.7b for GGP!?
Does anyone here think:-
i) They have that much cash in reserve?
ii) They'd be willing to offer such a sum?
Much as I'd love to see that happen, I'm having a hard time believing it's possible :-(
I think US$1.4bn equates to around 40p. Might a deal also involve NCM equity which would at least keep GGP holders in the game for the other prospects? I suppose it's about what holders would accept and whether the BOD or commend any deal to some extent?
$1.4bn for Havieron only !
Mickey if you read the Jv Someone posted in the last couple of days it clearly states GGP want to be involved in the mining. Things may change but that’s the way I read it .. and if they want to build this company into something then staying in a joint partnership with Newcrest is the best way .. depending on how much is down there it could be worth billions to GGP and 3x as much to Newcrest .. with the added bonus if future JV on Scally etc .. which I think would be a sensible thing for Newcrest to do. $1.4bn would not buy out GGP interest in Paterson !
Whatever the outcomr Haverion will be monstrous. A take over would be a bonus. For those that have been here for long would now have completed the jigsaw puzzle. GLA
Lenz fair point but we are not getting involved with mining , it could be an imminent take over . That’s the reality here .
Sorry that should have said $1.4bn is not enough for everything NO way !
james - Remove all expectations and take what the market gives you. That's all we can do. The only thing we can control is our own actions = buy, sell or zero equity exposure. The rest we leave to the Mr. Market, a beast we can never control. Nick Leeson learned this harsh lesson to his own and his employer's cost
NO way !
Personally I think it would be mad to sell out the GGP licence in Western Australia .. keep the 25% of Hav as long as what we get for the 5% is enough to fund up to mine production, ( our 25%share) and start drilling in Scally . Once production is going its money for nothing and the share price would reflect that in multiples ! IMO
60p+ no arguments now .
Is $1.4bil enough for everything!?
June/July or earlier , it’s game on James .
* I meant SP range for buyout*
Cheers chart
GL
Final question (honest) lol
When do you guess an offer might happen? Would they do it before mre and decline?
Hopefully a decent amount then Chart as otherwise I’d be disappointed:(
Presume you have no view on buyout of whole of GGP?
No worries if not, cheers for info
GL
Complete buy out James for 60p+ , and as uncle chart says june/July ( why do u think newcrest going like a train here ) or earlier : frigging wonderful !
PS. Peeps need to wake up to above and 30m oz at Hav min
they will just buy the whole thing. get all the ground.
GGP register wide open mate. they will have a run sooner rather than later IMO.
then they can consolidated account for the resources much more easily. zero need to have a minority partner especially when telfer is 100% ncm.
they dont have any minority partners in Oz.
red chris they do but that is a new buy and they need a local presence as a new jurisdiction for them....may change once they bedded in.
its not if.... its when.
Cheers
CB