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Ben,
I'm afraid no one will an offer of 24p That is a premium well over 100%. If an offer was to arrive then it would more likely be in the region of 14-15p, a 40% premium . Only when this is rejected will a bid approaching 20p be viable. Then for all the talk on this board, 20p+ may well tempt a lot of holders.
Best
Knocky
Sorry Trippy, I'm still not sure what you mean. I don't have an "agenda", I just want out at a level I can live with. Of course, with hindsight, 35p would have been wonderful. But I'm no different, greed and hope stood in the way.
Best
Knocky
Everyoneawinner,
Yes, you are right. But the last year has convinced me that NCM want GGP out of it. And they have the muscle and resources to do this, no matter how much faith we have in SD.
Having said all that, my plans can not happen if I bail out now. A low, but a big increase on the SP now, would be very tempting.
Best
Knocky
All,
Sorry if my negative view offends you. I'm realistic, we are in really choppy waters at the moment and I am struggling to find much good about the situation. Of course I know we have 30% of something big, but I now think the big boys are very much in charge and want us out of the equation.
Not sure Trippy what you think my "agenda " is. I own a large holding and I am very worried for the future.
Best
Knocky
Monty,
I think the exact opposite. If the arbiter selects the GGP figure then NCM may well say no thanks. This would really upset the applecart and the GGP share price will drop further due to lack of funding. An ideal situation for NCM to go for the jugular and take GGP out completely with a low offer for the whole company.
Prior to this though, I feel the arbiter may well go for the NCM figure. Both figures will be plausible in the eyes of the proposers, selecting the NCM figure would be an easy option. Again if this occurred the GGP share price would fall, as perception would be that GGP is underfunded and again an ideal situation for NCM to take out GGP at a much lower cost than people would like.
Best
Knocky
There probably isn't a reason for SD to stick rigidly to a date, now he will not be reporting immediately following Newcrest's announcement. So, perhaps we will get an update at 7:00am when we don't expect it.
Best
Knocky
Redirons,
I don't post too much, and yes my latest thoughts regarding GGP have not been too hopeful. This company has been a large part of my life for four years now, and I am lucky enough to have a good holding at no cost. This does not mean though that everything in the garden is rosy.
I am worn out by it, and the last year has repeatedly let us down and to a certain extent led us up the garden path.
There are a lot of individuals in a similar position to me I am sure, and would like a relatively painless exit.
So, no, I am not knocking the share, just trying to finally be realistic about what may happen. Rose tinted specs went some time ago.
Best
Knocky
Naylor,
Yes, i understand that the arbiter is independent. However, he has to pick one of the two figures, and the lower one is easier to justify, simply because no large expectation is needed.
Best
Knocky
I'm pretty sure that Canary3 has more or less got it right.
We are very much the junior here and NCM will certainly have no qualms in putting us down. I am also sure that if and when the calculations of the 5% are made, then NCM's will be at the bottom end and it will go to arbitration. The arbiter will settle for the low calculation. A low calc is far easier to back up and justify. Plus the arbiter will naturally side with the big boys, much better for them and future relationships.
So my belief is that NCM will pick up the 5% cheaply and there will be a lot of disgruntled GGP holders.
A bid for GGP may well follow, with a share price languishing probably lower than today, an offer of 18p would look generous. Probably rejected, but an increased offer of 23-25p could well do the trick and appear very generous.
I also feel that by then, many large holders would agree that enough is enough and take their substantial, but not as substantial as once hoped for, profits. I would be one of them.
Not a popular course of events I know, but I feel now that this is a very likely scenario. Borne out of frustration and exasperation.
Best
Knocky