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Small world! I’m based just outside of Le bugue, near saint Cyprien! We’ll have a beer in the PMU on the roundabout when GGP hits 0.60p a share! Ha ha
Jambo, I hav been wracking my brains to work out why this sp has dropped as violently as it has and I seriously think you have hit the nail right on the head. The late additon of £11 miliion worth of shares for index the took the mms by surprise and they were always chasing their heels trying to find these extra shares from somewhere.
I only recently discovered that mms can borrow shares from brokers (an odd but apparently legitimate trade). Collapsing the price this week to scoop up the shares they owed makes complete sense.
In due course, normal service will resume and our share will continue its upward momentum.
Mapp
I really don’t think there was any shorts. The only shorts IMO per my post on 15 Sept predicting the MM s would borrow to fill the big order then drop the price to gather shares so to settle the borrow returns. They never bought enough on the run up so even if they had been carrying some shares they would not want to be left with a zero position ahead of any positive RNS so this is the most likely scenario that they are collecting shares to settle whatever they had to borrow.
Jambo, you are right. Shorts have to close their positions and so
far there is no sign. Any rush for shares is a give away. We may not get it and
the drop was MM induced. Setbacks are accompanied by derampers making noise
and that leads to mistakes and losses.
I’ve yet to hear an explanation that isn’t based on an emotional reaction.
No one really knows? There are a few of us who have a clue but
the greedy lads at the top don't tell you.
Spot on. Finding the best company at the right time and holding
on leads to success. That is difficult and for the lucky ones. I have
been lucky with GGP and can afford to stick it out but was misled by
ignorant traders promoting poorly timed shares on this board and fell for it.
"mapp - you say "AIM is not for investors""
Indeed, well said, Dave.
AIM is risky for traders and investors who get spooked by short term price movements. For those ready to really research a company, and leave their money invested over time, there's money to be made. You will lose some and win some, but the winners can be really, really big. You have to stay the course through trading volatility but winning companies become winning shares eventually.
I’ve been reading everyone’s thoughts on why and how the price has risen and fallen so much after the last two weeks and have come to the conclusion that.....NO ONE REALLY KNOWS!
TMT Thank you, Diolch yn fawr, Merci ,Muchios gracias etc etc ...
for you explanation/your take on the GDXJ effect and your approach to risk.
I found both posts truly enlightening - Cheers BT
Mapp if as you say the drop was an organised short selling attack then I assume its not over yet as the short sellers have not yet cashed in by closing their short with a purchase which in turn would push the SP back up .
I think the drop was simply because that is where the MM s could justifiably take it too as gives them more options to make profits on their books rather than trying to drum up volumes around the 27 30 range.
Doubt many would take out short positions anyway. More likely many were taking out long CFD and spread bets contracts when it’s was moving up in the 20s. Those bets would have looked attractive even with the wider spread but not now. Win win for the MMs who now have a clear run to pick up shares from some who have set limit sales in the 20s range
mapp - you say "AIM is not for investors" - Try telling that to well researched folks when they have made over a million pounds plus on GGP - If you believe in the company fundamentals then patience is the key! ALB
Speedy, I am an investor and never intended to trade and
whenever I made an attempt to trade I failed. Brokers should
have to warn their clients that AIM is not for investors.
Instead they are turned into easy meat by experienced traders.
Hi All. I had a fair idea of what the out come was going to be but i was taken by surprise by the ferocity of the sell off. My buy at 22p proves that. ATB Speedy
very sensible post @TMT - With hindsight and a crystal ball we could have all sold at 25p and as you say loaded back in at 20p - resulting in many 100's of thousands of shares for free that ultimately will be worth well over 50p each IMHO - GLA
"Silly question maybe, and mostly in ignorance but what has the effect of GDXJ had here?"
There are different views on that but I'll give mine. 22-23 August, SP was 12.8p, and we figured out on this board over the weekend that we were almost certain to be in GDXJ. I was so certain that I went from about 18% of my investments in GGP to 40%, something I never thought I'd do.
You can see the price history. We closed at 19.9p on the 11th, the announcement was 10 pm. Some of that increase was due to some really good news (drilling results, mining lease), but I'm convinced at least half of it was due to people buying on GDXJ expectation.
Once it was announced, things went crazy, up to 25p on Wednesday. Then, a couple things happened (again, my view). Some who had bought in earlier took profits, rather than wait for the uncertainty of the actual buy-in, also some LTHs took profits (we know of one on this board who paid off a mortgage, another LTH said he sold out as well), but combined with that, the market makers engaged in a massive tree shake to try to collect enough shares to satisfy GDXJ.
That lasted for two days, and then at close of play, GDXJ bought their shares at, as it turned out, 27p. It didn't last, it never was going to. Massive profit taking this week. Perhaps also more tree-shaking by MMs to harvest shares -- they might have gone short a little bit to feed GDXJ and so needed to pick up more shares.
Net effect, in my view, is a gain of about 7p in the last month, over 50%. I'm guessing half of that is due to good news and half is due to 120 million shares being taken off the market and put in sticky hands.
This is my view only, others have different thoughts on it.
Hi Mapp. I read your posts and feel your pain, you must have had some very bad times trying to play the AIM game. Shorts are a part of that game, without them there would be no market. please do not blame your losses on the shorters/sellers. Your losses were your decision to trade. Use AIM for a fum time and a gamble nothing more nothing less. With a vast amount of time used in research and a vast amount of luck it will pay out, but not very often. ATB Speedy
Correction:
I am very keen on Fibonacci numbers pence for share price and million oz of gold for assets
"I am very keen on Fibonacci numbers"
LOL, would definitely take that.
@Spratt "Sorry TmT you believe the drop this week was just profit taking, including yesterday’s drop?"
Primarily, yes. I want to preface by saying I've never worked with a MM so I could be wrong, but this is my theory.
I believe there's been some big sells coming through. The MMs are taking time to fill them and so the spread is moving down before they are filled, so it looks like a buy. Nobody is dumping 5 million at a pop or anything like that, most big sellers are smarter than that, but I'm guessing a lot of these big "buys" are actually sells.
I don't want to say there hasn't been a tree shake here and there, I'm sure there has. Why wouldn't they, especially if a bunch of short term traders from the last couple weeks set stop losses? Harvest those stop losses, for sure. Undoubtedly some of that.
But people keep posting that they bought. I think you did. So if you were able to buy at the low prices, that says it was a real price, not an artificial one.
Again, I could be wrong and there might be more manipulation than I think. But remember, there is more than one MM and they all want your business. Manipulation is limited unless they are all in cahoots and that's not likely to be the case that frequently.
Glad we're still talking to each other. :) ATB
The drop was an organized short selling attack. ProTraders were in charge
and weak investors sold at a loss. They sold because they were sucked in on a spike
and everybody who pumped without clue or intentionally to mislead
is dangerous or scum. Anybody who sold at a profit has given the share to
the next investor. Distribution of wealth.
I believe it was orchestrated, vicious and deep. I have other thoughts which I will keep to myself for the time being. Good weekend all.
Go Thomas Sandgaard (for addicks fans)
TmT 'if they wanted a big stake, they'd have probably started building it back in August before GDXJ was on most people's radar.. "
Silly question maybe, and mostly in ignorance but what has the effect of GDXJ had here?
Cheers.
I am a gullible clown and would not be here if I were sensible
for AIM is for ProTraders who know every trick of the trade and
smart investors. I am the odd one out and shall give it up as soon
as I have reached my goal.
"You mean, we might sit here at 20 for 5 weeks or so and then shoot up by 65% to 33p over a month's time? "
Sort of but I am very keen on Fibonacci numbers turned pence: so 12p before 13p, 20p before 21p then jump to 33p/34p
0 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 , 13 , 21 , 34 , 55 , 89 , 144 ,