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gothedistance - Investor81's post at 13.38 gives you the name of the company which is entitled to the issue of Greatland shares when the "Decision to Mine" is made, and the number of shares to be issued, and the monthly RNS (probably on 1st October) will tell you how many shares have been issued up to 30th September and how many options are still outstanding.
In my post yesterday I referred to warrants - I should have said options.
Bully, the main difference is the amount of copper that each of them have.
HI Greedo - The Sept GDXJ buy was based on Mkt Cap as of end Aug when our SP was 15/16 so a much lower Mkt cap. When they come to allocations in Dec, so long as the SP is higher than 15/16 they will be buying more. The only question is how many more.....
Thanks GTD for this good thread. Market cap has been discussed a lot in a range of both informed and less informed posts over the last couple of weeks, so this is a very timely and welcome analysis.
GLA
Thanks everyone. Whilst each individual has to take responsibility for their investment decisions, the replies have helped reassure me that the true value of GGP is a lot higher than the current price.
Tom I tweeted you there, GDXJ buy in again in Dec, was that not if they needed to uplift if the Sept buyin was miscalculated?
Wow almost made sense. Block cave mining and established plant this isn’t going to have same costs as new mine. Which is common knowledge on this board and especially in an investor from Jan 2018.
I might be wrong but based on bulk Ming technique and the fact Telfer is up the road the aisc is more around $200?
The video that zoros posted a link to is well worth a watch, I watched it a few months ago and its accuracy is being proved all the time. At one section there's a spreadsheet that gives possible share price depending on the gold price and the MRE results. Currently I think we are way over 5 million ounces, paddysat seems to demonstrate that well, but have a look for yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q34v4V_Fxds
GLA
Thanks Archways. Unfortunately that brings down the 3p figure, but, i’ve just checked the NC quarterly report and their aisc is $738/ounce, so substituting my 1,000 for their 738 and dividing by 4.2bn rather than 3.8bn gives 4.2p/1m. Thats much better than my 3p figure. If it was 4.2p, then the market is valuing us at 4.88m ounces when all the indications are we have a fair few m more than that at Hav.
Gothedistance - you should be using about 4.2 billion shares in your calculation (3.8 billion plus a certain number for the ones to be issued re the conversion of warrants, all of which are "in the money", and a certain number to the company which sold the Havieron site to Greatland, which will be issued once mining starts).
One of the expert posters on this board will be able to state how many shares will be issued for each of those two reasons.
Hi guys is there a copy of the Broker Note anywhere. Or what are the targets/highlights? Thank you in advance for any replies. :)
Thanks Lifesagame, i am no doubt one of many who have been here a while, but just couldn't come up with anything of any value worth posting:)
Gothedistance , this is something I have said often, why would NCM not keep GGP sweet in any deal for Havieron considering the prospects we have. Screw us and they can forget any further JV’s with us or any other junior miner, keep us sweet and they could be on to years of gold production from our other sites close to Telfer .. good business brings its own rewards !
Welcome to the board gothedistance . Your contribution will be welcomed and appreciated . I think we look at nearer 5p per m ozs but I will leave others with more knowledge to explain why that’s so
Evening everyone, this is my 1st ever post on LSE. I researched GGP in Winter 2017 and have been a sh/holder since Jan 18. Without disclosing my detailed personal finances, it’s fair to say that if the SP hits my target of 35p it will be ‘life changing’ for me. I have close to zero knowledge of mining but as a co accountant i know a little bit about co structures and valuations. So my query is on the valuation of Hav. If NC do want full ownership of Hav, they will no doubt be using a recent average (1 -5 yr?) POG to determine their buy out price rather than the current higher POG (as a negotiating strategy if nothing else). I dont know what the recent average is but if it was say $1500, and say 10m ounces in Hav, then deduct A I S C of say $1,000. That would give Hav a value of (1,500-1,000) x 10m =$5bn. Take our 30%, which is $1.5 bn, exchange rate approx $1.275, so £1.176bn. We have 3.8bn shares so that would make our SP approx 3p per 1m ounces. So is 3p/1m a fair ballpark to be using or have i missed something fundamental?
Also, assuming they dont buy out our 30%, does anyone on here have knowledge of Aus transfer price regulations? (I dont). If i was NC i would charge Hav co a large Telfer ‘processing’ fee for using their facilities, hence transferring extra profit from 70% owned Hav Co to NC. I would also be charging Hav co any other ‘management charges’ i could find. Hopefully thats all just a worry about nothing, my preferred path is NC buy out our 30% and GGP pay us a special dividend, leaving enough cash in the business to fund exploration of the other sites.