The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Zoros,
Re: There’s usually a leak before results. What does that tell us then?
Well so far given the action of shorter increases over the last few days/weeks, and tonights NCM revelations re the 5% etc, it suggests to me in my honest opinion... that there is indeed a leak/source of inside INFO?
Anyway, not to worry we now own 30% of an Elephant.
Franco Nevada anyone?
Jam tomorrow is no good for stable investors /pension fund etc
RIO circa 11% -newcrest 2.5% !
Jiffy -personal greed and ego-look at Rio’s divi - newcrest shareholders must be furious
Looks like the decsion has been made on an ability to increase NCM dividends????????? , who knows?
The world of corporate business is a strange world at the best of times, logic goes out of the window.
Well SD did say he was going on the offensive in his last round of talks!
See you in a few weeks for next results as unfortunately the usual posters will be around tomorrow spreading their cheer ;)
GL
Rolyclan,
Let's hope so! can't say I ever trusted him implicitly :O)
We only went from fractions to a penny (pre newmont to the dizzy heights of 38p) -on the pump and hope of Scally ( still not unproven )to where we are now.
We are now under valued ,surprised at newcrests reaction ??? Yet have evidence of actual real resources ( increasing).
Newcrest IMHO have an agenda , CEO (SB) is under shareholder pressure, gloves are off , dirty tactics are in play - it’s about a man saving his job , companies carry on , CEO don’t ,but bonus are real for them and he isn’t going to be CEO of newcrest for much longer -ask his shareholders
Perhaps a better option would be to say we are open to serious offers for the full 30%. That would fire a shot across NCM’s Bow.
Can we not sell the 5% to anyone other major? Seems like good news to me if newcrest do not take it up, we can just sell it to someone else for alot more at fair market value and aquire all the funding we would need
Only the other day NCM were happy to commit to spiffing tens of millions for Headwater drilling prospects in Canada, but according to their slides the 60m for 5% didn’t pass their ‘hurdle’. Doubt we will, but would love to see how they calculated that one…
Newcrest Mining
Newcrest Mining meet its full year gold output target but fell short on copper.
The company delivered June quarter gold production of 637,000 ounces and copper production of 39,000 tonnes, resulting in FY22 gold production of 1.9m ounces down on FY21's 2.1m ounces but within the guidance range.
Due to lower mill throughput at Red Chris and Telfer, copper production was 3% lower than FY22 guidance at 121,000 tonnes.
FY22 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1044/ounce delivered an AISC margin of 41% or $732/ounce.
CEO Sandeep Biswas noted lower group costs during what was a challenging inflationary environment.
“Over the last four quarters we have steadily increased our gold and copper production, driving lower group All-In Sustaining Costs and delivering a record-breaking annual cost performance at Cadia.”
Broker outlook
Consensus on Newcrest is Moderate Buy.
Based on Morningstar’s fair value of 27.60 the stock appears to be undervalued.
Based on the seven brokers that cover Newcrest (as reported in FN Arena) the stock is currently trading with 33.9% upside to the target price of $25.64.
Ord Minnett’s average net present value has declined -15% across its commodities coverage following the hit to commodity markets over recent weeks.
As a result, the broker (04/07/22) has downgraded Newcrest to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $23.00 from $29.00.
While Citi likes Newcrest’s strong balance sheet, the broker will remain Neutral-rated until evidence that FY23 expectations are reset and until operations at Lihir improve.
Target price is cut to $22 from $29 due to rising cost concerns and as consensus lowers copper price expectations (08/07/22).
UBS notes while stocks [in the sector] are cheap, they do not yet present sufficient value to justify sector-wide buying.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and the target price decreases to $22.40 from $26.20.
DYEL,
IMHO, NCM are trying to get all of Havieron on the cheap. Now the thing is, Shaun Day is no fool, and is already steps ahead of the game being played. I cannot for the life of me even begin to understand ,why NCM have not taken up the 5% based upon the mutually agreed JV agreement terms and conditions and after being offered more than $60m dollars!!!.
After all the takeup of the 5% was theoretically supposed to be at FMV, which when actually looked at in greater detail was an absolute joke, all was based on basic prescriptive basis and did NOT REPRESENT FMV. It therefore seems to me that NCM do not like to be challenged by the likes of SD, and this is the problem right now.
So NCM are trying to to put GGP into a position whereby they will not find it easy to gain finance or so they think in going forward etc.
I happen to think that SD has already thought about such a situation and irrespective of our $50m loan will utilise other avenues of funding , eg Royalty agreements etc.
Bottom line, there are many large miners out there looking for Elephants, and we now own 30% of an Elephant!
Don't want another 5%, always a distinct possibility this one was, hopefully some people now realise that nothing is a given in business. Now let's see what SD and team have been lining up to deal with this scenario.
GLA
I think in the light of the following:-
Lower output
Lower profits
Lower dividends payouts to shareholders
All Compared with last year.
Sandeep CEO of Newcrest Is keeping his purse shut to save face. I bet if those 3 key performance indicators were not so disappointing the extra 5% would have been purchased.
The plus side is we keep that very valuable 5%!
Shaun Day needs to show his hand for some funding now…
Lol, forget that. SB has blown that theory out the water by basically saying it’s not worth it in the Q&A’s
Trying to make sense of tonight’s news, is it possible SD has negotiated something behind the scenes to encourage NCM not to take up the 5%.
SD did mention something about possibly amending the JV by including Scally or similar.
Probably clutching at straws but makes no sense NCM not to taking the 5%.
Perils of giving too much in JV. JV should have been negotiated with better terms. Easier for me to say but again this world class discovery would not have progressed at such a phase.
I only have a small holding in Newcrest, but still from that perspective I’m a bit perplexed. 60m is p*as in the wind for a company of NCM’s size, and acquiring another 5% would be pretty logical even with the conservative resource estimates they insist on using for Hav.
Markets open in less than 5 minutes. Will be interesting to see what the sp does.
Jiffy, Agreed, looks to me like they are trying to mislead the market even though the results are there for all to see. Very odd behaviour to say the least.
Antigus18,
Re: Sandgrounded, unless I’m wrong it seems quite a bit less than GGP’s resource update.
And the odd thing is, GGP used the same company to construct and validate their revised MRE as NCM, just shows you now ,that NCM are well lets face it ....Not to be trusted?????????
Antigua, I think you are correct. The indicated doesn’t seem to have moved and the inferred up by a million plus. The total being about 5.5 million in total. The copper seems to be low too.
None of the facts have changed.
Newcrests first MRS , followed quickly by SD ‘s I’m December with a significant increase still remain a “fraction of a fraction”
The whole of the mining community know it’s a world class find.
To me games are being played but value will be further proven -it just takes nerves to keep holding.
Sandgrounded, unless I’m wrong it seems quite a bit less than GGP’s resource update.