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Defo Panama!! (Fingers Crossed!) ;-)
Lets get serious - raise a couple of bill, buy back hav, take over telfer (lock stock & barrel - inc employees, town) and wave goodbye to Mr Biswas & co (Will give them some cash to go play elsewhere) as they ride over the sunset; pilbara sunsets are some of the best in the world. Dare to dream folks - how to build GGP into a very valuable mining co in one fowl swoop.
what happened to your 8p daverick.more bullshine !
Newcrest rejected the 5% option based on return of capital over LOM - I think it’s obvious they believe they have a very good chance to find another Havieron in the Paterson for even less than 65m usd….very revealing and very good news for Greatland!
Decline!!!!
The Newcrest results just about gave enough information out about Havieron without causing a stir. The MREupdate we thought was for up to the end of June. No, it was enough to say it compares to GGP’s reported figure.
We are told the feline is getting better, but no figures on how far, which could have helped GGO.
It appears NCM are reporting as little as possible which in turn is keeping a lid on GGP’s shares.
We all know why.
MattyBoy we need Scally to strike!
Hi Bamps,
I hope you're right (and you usually are!) and many thanks for all that you contribute to this (and other) boards!
I'm just getting a little nervous as to what might go against us and the ongoing effects.
Myself and my family hold just under 2.75m shares between us and I myself have seen over £550K of paper profit evaporate since the sp ATH (which is more than my gross earnings over the last 30 odd years!)
Whilst I am still in profit here (with an average of 1.1p) I really need this to provide for my family going forward (as do many others no doubt) and I just don't want to lose out just because SD might have bruised SB's ego!
I wondered myself, I don’t know if it’s maybe because these were the financial results rather than exploration results that they didn’t go into metres achieved with the decline.
GLA
I have just had a walk down the river and it hit me.
It’s the Newcrest shareholders who have done this, with a rubbish dividend in comparison with others and a year long declining sp .
I think they told the board get this sorted one way or another!
Because if you think about it if Sandeep is still playing games he still had a few days to announce he wasn’t going to purchase the 5% and leave it to the shorters to up there games.
Newcrest sp went up over 3% on this.
All in my opinion of course
Interesting we didn’t get the actual decline number, l believe we have had actual numbers until this report. We understand the positive wording yet without actual progress metrics, I found that interesting.
We don't know what value NCM put on the 5% if they only valued it at 35m then they would have to justify the spending of 60m to there share holders so maybe there low value backfired
The issue Newcrest have is that even with Havieron, Telfer will not be running at full capacity for a long time. They need another source of ore and Minyari is currently a shallow ore body compared to Havieron. I can easily see both tenements being used to feed Telfer, but in no way can i see them slowing Havieron down for any reason. Telfer is just getting too hungry. They want more ore, faster, not to slow things down.
correction 70%, sorry
Bamps, Matty
Plus they are accelerating the decline. Why would they bother to do that if they have decided to mothball, especially as I assume there would be care and maintenance costs once finished? I certainly think not taking this option has put a massive question mark which needs to be understood - as I always thought this has hurt the SP, if not by much - especially as they could have made an easy $25m dollars (or maybe a bit more if they had responded to GGP with a higher counter offer). I hope SD is on top of this, and the NCM strategy is not to drive GGP into debt and get it on the cheap. Contra to that is that even in the most appalling scenario NCM would not be guaranteed to pick up the pieces in a fire sale so NCM would achieve nothing.
One possibility that I may well have been mentioned (there were far more posts than I could get through yesterday) is that NCM were mindful that screwing a relative minnow like GGP over would possibly be counterproductive with other potential JV ventures. This way they look like good fair guys who are good to do business with, after all they still have 75%.
The article mentions avoiding price discovery event, i think that GGP should now sell 2.5% of hav to the highest bidder, certainly 2.5% of the 85 million offered by GGP would be enough to clear the NCM debt and leave blank slate for discussion with lender for the next phase.
That would give a price discovery event that would IMO be very helpful to GGP by giving higher value to HAV, get that 12.5% interest being paid on the NCM loan off the table and allow future funding discussions to be be independent of any NCM involvement as the first charge would be dissolved.
Interesting times.
Hi Mattyboy
Where will they find it though in a time frame to suit Telfer.
The closest to production I can see is Minyari and Blackhills and both nowhere near producing anything for Telfer.
They still have a few options at Telfer and are re looking over their licences from lessons learned with Ggp.
This could be an opportunity for Shaun to offer assistance
Blantyre, nothing mentioned specifically, though both SB and Shaun mentioned that the decline was accelerating. I expect we will hear something when we get the next drill updates. Probably not 850 yet but I am sure we will be over 600 by now.
Was there any update on the metres excavated on the decline, and if so are we picking up speed. Thanks in advance guys.
GLA
And what other options would they have if your theory was anywhere near the mark. Moving away from havieron wouldnt be a wise move its only going to get bigger and near doorstep.
That could force us to sell our 30% to someone else and Bizz will not want that at all.
''Mr Biswas said on Friday that Havieron was not the only option to extend Telfer’s life''
That's the bit that really concerns me! I think that SB is still smarting over the fact that they couldn't get Hav for the pitifully low price that he wanted to pay and that he's now looking to fuk us over!
If they can 'save' Telfer without requiring Hav then IMO I have no doubt he will 'shelve it' for the time being, and where does that leave us?!
Time will tell and I truly hope that I'm wrong!
Newcrest is the second-biggest shareholder in London listed SolGold, which is developing a prospective copper and gold project in Ecuador.
SolGold aborted an attempt to raise funds over the past month leading to the exit of chief financial officer Ayten Saridas after just 45 days in the job.
Newcrest and SolGold’s biggest shareholder, BHP, have traditionally wanted the pre-revenue company to raise cash through share issuance, but the previous management of SolGold defied their requests and instead opted for high-cost debt.
Mr Biswas reiterated on Friday that he was disappointed by that decision and expected it would not happen again.
“At that time there was also a public announcement by the company that that was a one-off and that future raisings would be more along the lines of allowing existing shareholders to be part of the fundraising activity in relation to an equity raise,” he said.
But Mr Biswas said SolGold had again sought to raise funds through methods other than share issuance over the past month.
’They chose not to do that, they went back to what happened last year and we...did not support that proposal,” he said.
Mr Biswas said he was also keen for the Papua New Guinea government to help Newcrest and Harmony Gold push ahead with the long-stalled Wafi-Golpu project.
Newcrest shareholders will receive a US20¢ final dividend, taking total dividends for the year to US27.5¢.
Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan predicted that Newcrest shares could rise during Friday’s trading session based on the better-than-expected profit, the solid production guidance for the year ahead and clarification from Newcrest that the Cadia mine had resumed after a recent disruption.
“Newcrest share price has underperformed peers on Cadia outage risk and a lack of FY23 [financial year 2023] guidance. We think this result could spark a relief rally,” he said in a note published shortly before Friday’s trading session.
Newcrest said on Friday that Mr Biswas’ total remuneration for the past year was $US6.22 million including bonuses, with $US1.74 million of that being fixed remuneration.
Newcrest said Mr Biswas’ fixed remuneration would rise by 2.9 per cent after October 1 as a result of a “benchmarking” process.
While Newcrest said the decision was based on price, it may also be an important tactical move designed to avoid a price discovery event for Greatland Gold, which many observers believe is a logical takeover target for Newcrest.
Had Newcrest agreed to pay $US60 million for the extra 5 per cent stake in Havieron, it would have put an implied $US300 million value on Greatland’s 25 per cent stake in Havieron.
Greatland’s market capitalisation was as low as $US466 million in early July before the independent valuer handed down its verdict; aside from Havieron, Greatland has several other copper and gold targets in the province around the Telfer mine.
Newcrest has acquired stakes in some of Greatland’s other projects around Telfer and Havieron, suggesting Australia’s biggest gold miner sees value in Greatland above and beyond its stake in Havieron.
Greatland’s market capitalisation rose after the independent valuer’s verdict was published and was $US549 million at the close of Thursday’s trading session in London.
Newcrest’s decision not to take up the option to buy the extra 5 per cent effectively undermines the valuation boost Greatland received after the independent valuer put the implied $US1.2 billion price tag on the Havieron project.
Mr Biswas said on Friday that Havieron was not the only option to extend Telfer’s life; Newcrest was also studying options to extend the life of the existing open pit at Telfer.
AFR Article - Newcrest / Havieron + SolgoldToday 14:22
Paywall: Cagey Newcrest Baulks at Havieron Gold Price Tag
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/cagey-newcrest-baulks-at-havieron-gold-price-tag-20220819-p5bb5b
Extract Australia’s biggest gold miner will snap a three-year streak of declining gold production and has surprised expectations by declining an option to buy more of Western Australia’s Havieron gold project.
Newcrest Mining vowed to raise gold production by at least 8 per cent to between 2.1 million and 2.4 million ounces of gold in the year ahead after announcing a $US872 million full-year profit.
The profit was better than the $US845 million analyst consensus published by Bloomberg but 25 per cent lower than last year on the back of lower gold production.
Newcrest has been spending heavily on growth options over the past four years to offset the fact its flagship Cadia mine in NSW has passed its peak in terms of gold production volumes.
The increased guidance for the year ahead is largely because of the recent $US2.8 billion acquisition of Canada’s Brucejack mine.
Although Brucejack has given Newcrest an immediate injection of extra gold production, the Havieron gold project in WA looms as a crucial medium-term growth project because without it Newcrest’s nearby Telfer mine would likely need to shut.
Havieron was discovered by London-listed Greatland Gold and Newcrest has acquired a 70 per cent stake in Havieron over recent years by spending $US65 million and completing a detailed feasibility study on the project.
The agreement between Greatland and Newcrest gave the latter the right to buy an extra 5 per cent of the Havieron project last month at a price to be determined by an independent valuer.
The valuer put a $US60 million price tag on that extra 5 per cent stake, giving Havieron a notional value of $US1.2 billion.
Newcrest is rapidly developing growth options to avoid a decline in its gold output by the middle of this decade.
Despite Newcrest’s strong balance sheet – it has a gearing ratio below 11 per cent and an investment grade credit rating – the company said on Friday it would not buy the 5 per cent stake at the price determined by the independent valuer.
“We’re happy with our 70 per cent stake,” said Newcrest chief executive Sandeep Biswas on Friday.
Mr Biswas said the price published by the valuer did not meet Newcrest’s investment hurdles.
“We didn’t think it would deliver the sort of returns and the sort of thinking our shareholders would expect from an owners’ mindset,” he said.
“We have got a lot of projects to allocate capital to and we have got our shareholders to think about too.”