The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Correct Boyo. Sorry there a few words missing or mispelt ....
I agree with your comments Tartine -
Assume you meant ' doesn't ' here though:
......the management does really have much influence over what they and cant do. ?
Good morning Hydrogen,
Let s say the letter if what I wrote might be a bit off but the spirit is valid I think.
I am not questioning your numbers, I did not check them and dont want to get into that kind of argument. I prefer to read your various analysis if the situation.
My understanding was that coming out of 2018 the production was above 37k bopd and the average for 2019 is going to more ore less the same (maybe a bit under).
As I am invested here I do see some potential but the 5 years view I have (like many here) does tell me that it is still very risky and more importantly the management does really have much influence over what they and cant do.
The recent dip in share price shows that also it is a highly corrupt environment. Probably the stop to the payment was well know to the people controlling the share and we hear about it 1 month later.
As I wrote about 2 years ago, Russia is definitely behind the shaping of the energy scene in Kurdistan, their influence in the region is huge.
When they agreed the deal they want with the KRG, then we will be told "guys that is what you get" and we wont have a say in it. It might be good, it might be quite slim, we will see.
Reading from Hawkey article, the simple resumption of payments in january is not as straight forward as has been claimed maybe.
I genuinely hope I turns out OK.
GLA.
Tartine.
3rd tab just below the 'share discussion for Genel energy' button Hydro - great summary btw
A fair summary by Tartine in my view.
Success and 'transformation' for G invariably seem to be just beyond its grasp.
Thought you were taking a break..
Genel Rocks......
Hawkey
Every share board you have posted on you post the same, dog of share, cra p ...until other posters get fed up with you.
Why would you buy Genl and then constantly ***** about it...it’s a ‘dog of a share’ etc..but still you buy, why the hell would any sensible person buy a share after the way you feel about this one, makes no sense, in fact it’s bloody ridiculous ...you really are a strange individual.
Of course not everything in the Genel garden is rosy..but I don’t go worrying about every up and down it does....that’s shares, especially oil ones.
Go find yourself another hobby
At least tartine sums it up, filter away, really not bothered. Just state facts, people constantly ramping are far more harmful than me
You speak like it’s my fault hydrogen? Bina bawi is over a year late. Gas assets have been touted for at least 8 years. No farm out in Africa , no M&A since January , all of which we have been strung along by this year- ‘exciting year’ etc. Genel is not a bank they have over $400 million to play with. These are all facts. The money is no good sat there accumulating whilst shareholders lose theirs. Instead you tell me what they have done this year that should increase the value of the shares? Sarta is still 6 months away and needs to be proven up- you don’t just sit around waiting for it- what if it isn’t what is expected? Then what? The lifting costs Genel have are ridiculously cheap and oil at $66 is a gift. The ftse is up this year. Most blue chip stocks are up recently, how can you think a year of consolidation is good. 18 months ago the prospects alone saw the shares rise to 300p. It’s because they haven’t delivered what they are claiming we are sat at 180p. It’s what the market thinks not me, I’m on record saying this should be much much higher so how is that deramping? I’ll take a break from here and say nothing, makes no difference the shares fall no matter what I or any of us say. If you think that an oil company with a rising cash balance m, booming market and oil price dropping is worth celebrating then no point me arguing
Not a 'no' bunks. 66 x 3.05 = 201.3, subtract 3.75 = 197.55. Do forgive me for rounding it up to 198.
Why dont you guys just filter him. I did this 10 days ago and it works!
Personnally I think most if you are looking and have been looking at this share with pink tinted glasses.
Yes there is a potential but it has a very long history of disappointing.
A year ago, BH was saying oh yes I would like to see a doubling of production within 18 months ... 1 year on ... production for 2019 will be lower than 2018 if I am not mistaken.
Taqtaq has been on life support for a few years now.
Tawke just reading the numbers is gradually declining.
Pheshkabir is doing well.
The rest are projects until they start producing ...
Sarta, Qara dagh we will see
Morrocco nothing for years
Somaliland ... very difficult area to operate from ... difficult political situation
Payment have been stopped again (yes there is probably a good reason but given history, it is highly damaging in terms of perception of the share).
On the plus side, the company is profitable and has started paying a dividend (a good one), however it is still a very risky share and it might come good one day but I disagree with a few of you that is a one way ticket to riches
N.B: I am a holder, I have been for a few years and in a fairly big way.
Coming back to Leem1, whilst he sometimes has some valid points, his constant moaning is not constructive and therefore I filtered him, easy to do and it works a treat.
GLA
Tartine.
Just beautiful Hydrogen......Beautiful...
It’s a strange world.... You never really know what agendas people on there boards have..!!
Hawkey
And besides why am I supposed to be super positive whilst I’m losing money in an oil company when the oil price is at 4 month highs and this at year lows?... whilst the ftse rallies. I have a holding still but less than I did. If Genel delivered the prospects you and them keep saying all year round this would be £4+ and we would all be on here saying well done and what a good investment if is
It’s either that or list hundreds of reasons to be cheerful whilst the share drops and goes nowhere every week hawkey. It’s frustrating that this performs so badly when it should not- and that’s all there is to it. If management deliver something good I’ll be shouting about it like you but still waiting!
Doctor Doom,
Why on earth do you come on here day after day spouting your constant negativity and pouring cold water on a share you allegedly hold.
Your are either slightly bonkers or have another agenda.....
You even said yourself yesterday there were much better opportunities than Genel but still you produce your unhelpful constantly biased negative views.....Very weird.
Hawkey
I take that as no then, 4p is over 2% at this price so shouldn't be ignored imo
Many disillusioned shareholders probably giving up. The lack of Bina Bawi deal this year after all the promises (it might not even be Genel to blame) is a real kick in the.
The share price reflects the disappointment. One things for sure once this bottoms out all the traders will pile in and make the gains if news does land... whilst long term sufferers get squat for remaining loyal
Ex div discount would only account for the value of the dividend - 4p top whack Bunks.
G is 20p down on 'average performance' for the year and 50p down on top performance for the year based on current OP and the multiples (3.05x and 3.5x respectively)that it has achieved during 2019. Today's price is about as dismal as it gets.
does that consider ex dividend?
Not surprised that this isn’t performing- I think we are all used to it by now- but the oil price has to be good for the bottom line (if they get paid!). I think the payments will be ok, I’m actually more concerned as I always have been about the total lack of progress that Genel seems to make on everything (Sarta being the exception, likely as Chevron are involved)
With LCO knocking on the $66 door (OANDA about $0.5 ahead of it), G should be comfortably at 198p today
The impact of KRG shenanigans on the sp is not hard to evaluate.
DNO appears to have issued two buy back notices, hence the price resilience:
Oslo, 16 December 2019 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, has today purchased 1,200,000 own shares at an average price of NOK 10.7412 per share.
Oslo, 17 December 2019 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, has today purchased 1,500,000 own shares at an average price of NOK 11.0491 per share.
Following this [last] transaction, DNO holds 88,700,000 own shares.
Yes Whitehat - as soon as G starts to run faster it invariably encounters banana skins. And people wonder why the market supposedly undervalues it.
Plainly the sp is now totally becalmed and drifting - the stiff breeze of strong revenue is not driving it anywhere for the moment.
We may as well all switch off till mid January - the 16th to be precise. At that point 'no news' and lack of credible explanation will see it tank for sure.
Echo your thoughts. Before hawkey jumps on me for being negative it’s because the company could and should be doing so much better than this. Wasnt production around 39k or so briefly around this time last year. How can a whole year go by since January with no real production change, no more M&A, no BB deal, no Taq Taq development (at one stage bill said this had some new potential), even Tawke has gone quiet which DNO usually speak about. Cash and the oil price is growing and this is going backwards with the entire market going forward. Something has to change at Genel buying back shares and dishing out a divi because they have no other ideas? Let’s buy in to Sarta, let chevron do the heavy lifting and we can do nothing all year? What are they being paid to do?
GKP doing circa 2% better .....
They have been buying back every day since their buyback announcement - so comparisons with GKP not especially useful at the moment. Presumably they pre-planned the buybacks to commence when they announced the payment delay - it would be only logical to do so.
For the time being G is pumping oil but receiving no revenue - so much for cash accumulation for value accretive investment. What are the odds that this will get tacked onto the Receivables deal?