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Bunks - I can understand that ceasing the buybacks might seem to imply that the company believes the shares are now ‘up to value’ (what a killer that would be!) but I don’t think that’s the case. Buying until the shares were up to full value would not be ‘value accretive’ - where would the additional value come from? I’m guessing they’ll use the shares for remuneration/incentives and needed to stock up as I believe there used to be a lot more in treasury. Sensible to do that at relatively low prices. I think they achieved a surprising and excellent boost in mar-cap for just $5m
From a self interested POV, I wish they’d have spent the whole $10m - hence my estimates at the time of what that might have achieved in terms of sp, .but TBH I’m not sure they would have doubled the rise in sp, ie the return was likely to diminish the more they spent
I wouldn't say my view is negative, just one of frustration at the management for their part in the low valuation. I want this share to fly as much as anyone and when i see all the reasons to be cheerful (although i would scrub broker ratings and director deals from the list) it annoys me that we aren't valued at the same rate as comparable industry peers. That's all really and whilst i'm at it, Higgsy has bought £40K worth of shares in the last couple of months. It's not a huge amount and personally i would like to see more to reflect the same view of share holders that this stock is undervalued.
Yes Hawkey the question is why a few have a different and seemingly negative views?
They may have facts we are not aware of, we need to know to make an informed decision to continue holding? Or cut our holdings to lessen the massive exposure of our investment to G? Or even sell the lots?
I am happy to listen to the few and they may turn out to right and doing a great favour..
Please enlighten us...where are the negatives facts in G?.
Blimey, almost as good as the REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL..... But not quite.
I'm with you 100% Hasiba.
The bit I struggle with is you and I and a few other luns around here seem to be in the minority.....
The question is why..?
Hawkey....
You can lead them to water but you cannot make them drink......
It's a trap - I'm not falling for it
Apart from the sp at the current level....is there anything els negative about Genl?
I really want someone to tell me something I have missed in this..
Yes I see only positive here apart of location of G!
Cash piling up
Great dividends
Recent Share BB
P/E is far lower than most peers if not all
ev/ebitda is one of the best and improved over the last couple of years dramatically
Price/book value is very low and very undervalued
Analysts targets are much higher than present Sp.
Directors recent share buying
Positive investment growth outlook
Positive recent rns
Growing investment growth
Massive assets in oil and gas in progress to be exploited
Good bod with a world class new ceo
Potential M&A
Etc...
More reasons to be very positive than negative imo.
Please tell me the negatives points if you have any...that may help to change my mind!
further down the line (not link) - soz
In terms of the buyback, one fairly minor observation, in the initial buyback announcement they say the current share price does not accurately reflect the value of the Company's assets and that utilising its balance sheet to repurchase shares represents a value accretive use of its cash resources.
But in the subsequent resumption of the buyback announcement they say Genel believes that the current share price 'significantly' undervalues the Company's assets, and that utilising its balance sheet to repurchase shares represents a value accretive use of its cash resources.
I find it difficult to believe that they considered the objectives met without the full investment, more like they think there is limited further upside to fully investing the 10$ million. Hard to measure the outcome until much further down the link obviously.
In terms of the forward financial diary, they have a bit of form for not keeping it up-to-date i'm afraid. Maybe ask IR and it might miraculously appear Jimmy.
Ha! On OP then like everyone - including the experts - WTFDIK?
Very mixed messages - The price was potentially set to soften between now and January but the KSA situation has reversed that for the moment. It's not clear how long it will take to get KSA production back up to speed. In the meantime they and the US will use reserves to plug the gap whilst telling the world that everything is fine. Whatever happens, US production progressively reduces from $50 WTI downwards. So $55 - $65 (Brent) would be my guess for the price range until end January provided that the KSA problem is resolved as quickly as they are saying.
Yes. That was a well measured and strong reply.
Still can anyone answer as to why they haven't updated their financial calendar to provide a date for the next trading update. They always used to have these dates published in the past.
There we have it.......
Great Post Boyo....
Where you you think, guess, forsee oil going in the next few months..
Hawkey
The BB programme’s declared purpose was to reduce capital at a time when the company believed that the share price did not accurately reflect the value of the Company's assets, and that utilising its balance sheet to repurchase shares represented a value accretive use of its cash resources. The budget for this was up to $10m .
Because the buybacks ceased before the announced end date and before the budget was used, it seems reasonable to conclude that the company’s objectives were met. In terms of market cap v OP, I think the value is about 12% up in relation to OP following the buybacks. The OP was coincidentally 64.5 (similar to today) just before the buybacks started and the sp was 177 - so a 20p boost at least partly, if not entirely, due to the buybacks.
The buybacks didn't boost the sp as much as I had hoped but that, of course, was not the purpose. I'm not complaining about a 10% + lift in sp and certainly don't regard it as incompetent for a $5m outlay.
Fair point although I don't think I would call a new board which has achieved what ours has incompetent.
It may be that the plan hS changed due to things we don't know about yet... Could be Bina etc...
I'm not interested in hearing from the board to much and would prefer they just crack on with their roles.
There has never ever been a better time to be buyi g Genel.
WTFDIK...
Hawkey
Announced a 10$ million buy back and possibly more to come.
Yes, but don't announce it and then only partially do it. They (management team) can't complain about accusations of incompetence when they do something like this. Shareholder value will only be obtained through action and not through giving lip service - i.e. placating those like me calling for a share buy back and then only doing some of it.
Ho Leem1,
That the beauty of this board. A group of people with different views and agendas....
I note you comment about Genel generation cash and not doing anything with it. And your correct apart from....
Doubling expenditure this year against last year.
Commencing a dividend which pay a great amount. Not sure but certainly over 7%.
Announced a 10$ million buy back and possibly more to come.
Bought into 2 new assets Sarta and Quara Dagh....
Just get buying and stay away from the noise......
Hawkey
Hi Hawkey, i will give him the benefit of the doubt but my last two emails (sent to correct email address) have not been replied to. It seems that the one thing that everyone is unanimously agreed upon is that we are undervalued compared to our industry peers. This has been the case for sometime now and this failure rests solely with the management team. Whats the point of announcing a buy back programme (whether it's the right move or not) and then not committing to it. If they didn't believe in it then they shouldn't have done it at all. Also, why can't they even post the date of the next trading update?
Hawkey, I see where your coming from but respectfully disagree with some of it. My reasons are the RSA was money that was owed and helped pay it down. The rest was because of DNO rescuing Genel with the phenomenal success at Tawke and Pesh. Coupled with oil price rise and the books have turned for sure. The last 18 months with a clean slate the board have done very little (and that’s been generous) with exception of Sarta- yet to be proven could be absolutely amazing but don’t know yet. All just imo anyway. I don’t contest that Genel are certainly in a good place now but shareholders are seeing no benefit from it. Cash mounting up but not being used etc
Just my opinion but I think the whole Genel team have done and continue to do an amazing job.
They were very very clear that the last presentations that the strategy is boring and predictable. Increasing production, increasing free cash flow, progressive dividend.....
For those that have been around a while you will remember 2 years ago we had massive debts and declining production. Such a turn around in a small time period is amazing....
I get everybodies frustration in the share price but its journey is only going one way..
Patience needed, quite a lot and you will be handsomely rewarded.....
Well done Genel board...
Hawkey