We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Ha! It may well go higher bunks (though I doubt anytime soon) but if you are contemplating buying G then you'd primarily be interested in whether it might go lower. Yes, it could bounce off that trend line or - more likely IMV, continue down to the next.
All the 'news' driven indications suggest the odds are in favour of it heading lower. The chart (which for Oil is notoriously subject to quick changes of direction) suggests that it might settle in the $57-$62 region but that anything down to $42 is quite possible with $30 ( remember Jan 2016?) not entirely impossible, albeit for a very short time .
What is it about OP News and this chart https://invst.ly/glmkd that makes you think Brent definitely won't go any higher this winter?
H: Wish I could but no funds until Nov.....
Just as well H. Do you never wait and see?
What is it about OP News and this chart https://invst.ly/glmkd that makes you think Brent definitely won't go any lower this winter?
Good man,
Wish I could but no funds until Nov.
Crazy cheap. Buy and Forget. Reinvest dividends.... Job Done...
Hawkey
Comical share price given cash balance, just reflects how inept the company management are. Will trade and not comment to not annoy the board in general as some nice people on here
Grabbed a few too. Hopefully the clowns running this can get bina up and running after 2 years. Will trade regardless as they are deadwood
I've just taken a couple more.
ATB
I just know it’s getting close to my add a few more price :)
we're down because we got away with it yesterday - simple - im not complaining btw
RDSB -0.24%
GKP-0.90%
PMO -1.26%
TLW-1.07%
G -2.63%
Let’s hope this morning’s weakness in OP is just part of an overshoot as the price normalises after the recent spike. Sub $57 would not be good at this time of year as it would be indicative of worse to come. https://invst.ly/gcmd3
G has responded accordingly and similarly to RDS
Great analysis Boyo and truly appreciated....
Hawkey
Worth a comment today - a good day for G which is back up to near 3.2x OP - like it was prior to the attacks on the KSA infrastructure. So a good positive gap between the red and green price lines here:
https://invst.ly/g4foz
GKP falling in line with the other Kurdies today:
https://invst.ly/g4dob
3rdOctober marks One Year since OP peaked at $86.
https://invst.ly/g42hd
All the oil cos in the chart are down since then but, whilst Brent has fallen 33%,
the Kurdies are all a tad stronger v OP at roughly 25% down (GKP 23%, G 26%, DNO 27%). Big Oil RDS is only 15% down and BP 18%.
PMO, for those that are interested, is 47% down. Ouch!
There’s actually nothing much in it between G & GKP over the 12 months and both obey pretty simple rules regarding sp v OP - as does RDS, although the equation there is slightly more complicated and, at first glance, seems to follow a pattern like ($OP+100)x15 = RDS sp
So, stating the obvious: no matter how big the company, if it is in the oil game its long term average sp has a relationship with it which only changes slowly over time or if something fundamental happens…...
Spot on boyo. The only mystery to me is why the heck are Genel team not doing things and announcing news anyone would think they don’t want the share to move up!!! Depending on their next move I may reassess, they have had all year I’m getting bored lol
There used to be a lot of frustration and angst expressed on this BB when G did or did not react to OP as folks expected. I rather hope that this issue has now become much less of a mystery. It’s hopefully become very obvious that G’s sp does not need much explanation when it stays within the range of 2.9 - 3.2 x Brent, ie within about +/- 5% of its long term average ratio. That range held good throughout the turbulence of this past week and I also found it quite interesting to note that the buybacks ceased after that relationship seemed to have been restored after a difficult patch at the end of May.
It seems that only if it strays outside of that range might it point to a more fundamental change and be worth discussing further. The historic trend, support and resistance levels will inevitably continue to apply, of course, providing occasional but temporary barriers to G’s movement in response to the underlying driver of OP.
So, provided G continues as it has over the past few weeks, I’m going to take a break from the daily commentary. Here’s the last chart for the time being: https://invst.ly/ccaap
Looking at the trading week since last Thursday’s close, it’s clear that the increase in OP due to events in the KSA has not materially affected the market’s long term view of G. Whilst Oil is up about 6%, G and GKP are up only 2%, after a further drop this morning: https://invst.ly/cb-7v
In fact, whereas G was about 12p up on 3xOP last Friday, it is now only 3p - so the week’s increase in OP has been largely discounted.
All pretty much back to normal sp-wise: Brent settling back into the low $60s and G probably the low 190s. https://invst.ly/cbqem The second phase of Buybacks supposedly finished yesterday with only just over half of the $10m spent according to the G website, so no immediate prospect of any stimulus.
Here’s the 24x7 detail of the last five trading days: https://invst.ly/cbqeu
Interestingly all three Kurdish based producers have lost ground in their Brent relationship since this time last week.
G may be down but performing nicely today, along with the other Kurdies, and not over-reacting to the pull-back in OP: https://invst.ly/cbidg
Red is back above Green - and consequently the sp:OP ratio is slowly improving
Tonight I will mention GKP first - given that I had a brief exchange with Ocelot this morning in which I mentioned a wedge pattern that seemed to be holding G back. I said that GKP had no similar ‘influence’. For clarification, GKP does have a similar wedge but it is not yet in play: https://invst.ly/cbb0p . I don’t really follow GKP much but it does have a similar relationship with OP to G, the factor being about 3.3x.
GKP had been outperforming G in terms of response to the last few day’s gain in OP however that may all change tomorrow given the fall back in Brent tonight.
Here’s the 24x7 detail of the last five days: https://invst.ly/cbb2g
G investors may like a risk but they are not, generally it seems, fools. There was a fair chance that the OP spike would not last and G ‘s post weekend sp increase was cautious to say the least, so my next trading target ‘off-load’ point didn’t get hit. Here‘s the current G:OP chart: https://invst.ly/cbbcn . G is now ahead of Brent again, until tomorrow, with a closing ratio of just over 3 - the best this week!
For the moment, Boyobach, I prefer to accept your wedge, because it may be signalling a break-out!
Yes-Ocelot quite perplexing. I'm not entirely convinced about the wedge 'thing' in this instance - it's a different matter when an sp is cycling up to the line more frequently. Also, GKP is responding much like G and there's no similar wedge evident there.
One thing is for sure, the market is quite cautious about the sudden rise in OP and the circumstances that surround it.
Sitting on your orange line now, Boyobach!
G does seem to be encountering some difficulty breaking through the upper orange line of the wedge pattern seen here: https://invst.ly/cazmm
Whether this is just a technicality remains to be seen as the sp is not performing as it should with respect to OP and should have been comfortably over 200 and potentially up to 217 today.
Today's G v 3xBrent Chart shows the red G price line has fallen below the green Brent price line today: https://invst.ly/cao-u
This immediately indicates that the G:OP ratio has slipped to below 3x. It was 2.93 at the close and has since become even lower. G should, by now have been comfortably around 215p by last week’s standards, when the ratio reached 3.2x. So a pretty poor performance.
The G/GKP/DNO v Brent chart gives a more detailed view of the same picture - basically that G has slipped from where it was a few days ago and has not kept pace with Brent’s rise since Friday: https://invst.ly/cap06
G is not alone it seems - presumably the market does not yet believe the current hike in Brent will last. Here are the usual group from OP Peak in April: https://invst.ly/cap6c
Quite a roller-coaster so far this week. The KSA and Opec+ seemed keen to talk OP up (the $100 oil fantasy) in the face of their own forecasts and the oncoming winter season, which can herald weaker OP at the best of times. Not a time I’d ordinarily be thinking of topping-up in G or other oil-related stocks without good reason. It’s ‘wait and see’ time for me, especially after the experience of last autumn. Happy to hold, however, with a better safety margin in terms of book cost per share this time round. Winter volatility will hopefully create some trading opportunities again.
With LCO at 59.1 and G at 190 the ratio was 3.2x at the close - possibly the strongest it’s been for a couple of months. Just two weeks ago that OP would have matched up with G at 180. Here are the last five days, which show G hanging on at the re-base 0% line whilst all the others, including Brent have moved down: https://invst.ly/c85yg
The chartists view doesn’t look too clever to me - but I’m not a Bollinger reader. The long upward tails on the candles suggest to me that the last two days have tested the higher ground without success and today’s close that G may not cling onto that red trend line: https://invst.ly/c861i
This is how the rest of the pack are doing (rebased from April Peak OP):
https://invst.ly/c86n7
It’s quite interesting to note that there’s virtually nothing separating G and GKP over either this period or the rebase to last October Peak OP. So, if you find G disappointing then, logically, you’d find GKP equally so - unless you were very lucky/astute with your ‘buy’ points.
It may seem disappointing that the sp fell back by today’s close but, nevertheless, the G:OP ratio is currently ‘up’ and stands at 3.19, putting the sp at nearly 12p above the 3xBrent figure. Although the sp is much lower than we'd like, September has been a good month for G and today’s closing G:OP ratio was better than at the end of April when OP was at $73 and G was 231p - a ratio of 3.16. It’s a welcome reason to be cheerful when news sources later today were generally pointing to a weakening outlook for OP: https://invst.ly/c75tm
Here are the last five days with DNO reinstated: https://invst.ly/c75tj
It looks a bit odd because of the anomaly in DNO last Thursday (maybe a big after- hours trade?). Whatever the reason, DNO is certainly making a comeback and regaining its position amongst the runners since last October’s peak OP:
https://invst.ly/c769g
All the oil companies here, except PMO, are now bunching back together and, rather importantly nearly twelve months on, are above Brent by 7-15% - indicating a general strengthening of their respective sps.