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BBack is holding the price up fairly well today imo - o. p pump yesterday is in reverse today seemingly
Profitable buying by Genel today:
162,048 ordinary shares at a volume weighted average price per share of 179.0656 pence
A fair response by G to the increase in OP during the afternoon. Nothing exceptional though - the G:OP ratio holding at an unremarkable 3.01 x.
The last five trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bqjia
All the runners and riders from Peak Oil April: https://invst.ly/bqjkk
And from Peak Oil October: https://invst.ly/bqjla
With Brent only a tad lower since Friday’s close but G, after a positive spike, ending about 2% down since that previous close - G’s tree got a good shake today https://invst.ly/bpk0b . Yes, the day ended on a ‘gravestone’ doji but, given everything else (including the Bollingers shown here) it doesn’t look that significant.
If the initial spike, echoed by DNO and GKP, teased out some buying interest (sorry Hawkey) and the drop back then flushed out sellers at the low end then, assuming buybacks did happen today, the strategy appears to have worked a treat. We’ll know better when we see an RNS with the numbers. It’s worth remembering that the buybacks are a value accretive exercise - the intention is to acquire shares as low as possible, rather than push the price up and pay over the odds. The G/OP ratio that I bang on about was still over 3.0 at the close, 3.01 in fact, so no ground materially lost but, equally, no progress either. https://invst.ly/bpjb7
With Brent’s decline pausing at about $57.5, G announcing the resumption of buybacks and GKP’s own buybacks seeming to pick up again, there was a welcome step up for both G and GKP in the casino hour. The market got a bit ahead of itself with G, however, and the sp moderated pretty quickly, finally ending at a healthier 175. DNO remained on the launchpad but, in fairness, there was no particular reason for it to do otherwise.
https://invst.ly/bn10e
In fact, it’s worth looking back over the entire buyback period as, today, GKP drew level and overtook G in a comparison of price over the period from 25/6/19 inclusive. In this chart DNO probably gives a slightly exaggerated indication of where G might have been had buybacks not happened - it would probably have been 10% (15p) rather than 17% down but who knows? GKP’s buybacks have been effective from 8th July, the blue vertical line: https://invst.ly/bn0su
Here are all the runners and riders since Brent’s last 2019 peak in April: https://invst.ly/bn0z0
It’s satisfying when something as unpredictable as Brent seems to stick to the chart. Although whether it will stop, or even pause, at orange here remains to be seen as $50 to $53 seems highly possible (wider view):
https://invst.ly/bm73u
Wider view: https://invst.ly/bm7jm
This is not a time to be rash with G - either buying or selling. Smaller tranches so that you can minimise risk and average out losses or profits whilst the market is moving, are often a good idea.
The last five days of G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bm6zq show that G strengthened against OP yesterday (red closing well above green) and held onto about half of that margin today. G:Brent ratio (169:56.4) down to exactly 3.0. (OANDA should give a similar result at the moment). ‘Easy does it’ would be my advice - I bought 1k on the basis that I think there’s only a 50/50 chance of bottom here.
Over at GKP I think the buy-back boys have eased off whilst the knife drops - there’s no point swimming against such a tide (to mix as many metaphors as possible).
It’s a pity I can’t share the interactive version of the ‘runners and riders from October’ chart https://invst.ly/bm8su because it allows me to easily read off all the sp s from dates when the OP was at today’s level. Would you believe that on Jan 3rd G closed at 180p with Brent at $56? So, unless you think oil is doomed to stay below $60 and that G is now weaker than it was then, you might think sub 170 is an attractive price. Keep cash handy though.
The last five days of G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bkrhl
Which shows that G has tracked Brent quite faithfully up to this morning (H1 Report), upon which G stepped up from 178 to nearly 183 initially but eventually dropped back to179 as OP continued to weaken towards $59.5. The ratio of g/$bbl being just about 3.01x at the close - about average for the year and matching the post-buyback level.
Looking at all the runners and riders from this year’s Peak OP of $74.6 in April, we can see that G is about middle of the pack, with RDS, DNO and PMO being the most disappointing over the last couple of weeks with the first two releasing poorly accepted results and OP continuing to fall https://invst.ly/bkr6z . At least G’s results didn’t trigger a similar immediate reaction.
Over the longer timescale, from October’s peak, the leader board looks a little different because DNO enjoyed some excellent months earlier in the year before falling back equally spectacularly: https://invst.ly/bkr4u
After tending to lag behind until January and vying for position for some months, GKP eventually overtook G as OP fell back in mid May and still remains ahead of G over this period, with buybacks presumably supporting the price as OP has fallen over the last couple of weeks.
Bearing in mind that the H1 results have confirmed what the market should already have expected, it is perhaps not surprising to see the sp hold roughly constant in relation to today’s OP. The sp does seem to be low but maybe that’s a simple reflection of the risks that the market perceives about the region in which G operates and its naturally direct exposure to OP: https://invst.ly/bku1m
A correction:
Earlier I commented on the five day G/GKP/DNO v Brent chart that:
‘Brent’s fall of just over 4% during the five days of the chart have been matched by just over 7% drop in G - which does indicate that G is being disproportionately hit [by the drop in Bent]‘
But when I rolled forward to prepare for tomorrow’s chart I found that G was perfectly ‘in sync’ with Bent for four of the five days - not disproportionately hit by Brent’s fall as I’d suggested:
https://invst.ly/bk1uo
Explanation? Well, on reviewing this evening’s chart
https://invst.ly/bjs08
I realised that G actually took a hit last Tuesday, when DNO’s results were announced, and it fell vs Brent at that stage. So DNO’s results appear to have caused half of G’s drop over the last week, whilst Brent only contributed the other half. No disproportionate effect at all.
Just to put that last Brent chart in perspective...here's a wider view: https://invst.ly/bjxq3
Thanks for the alert OHG.
That's particularly nasty, given it dropped through a supporting trend line in the process:
https://invst.ly/bjwzc
Not much of a safety net below $58 until $52 - has everyone noticed that OP has a characteristic near vertical drop line?
What's the steepest rollercoaster you've been on?
Maybe I should have bailed out with JL - too late now methinks.
Vs what, 60.8 when the market closed?
Hopefully we can buck the trend tomorrow, squeaky bum time - good luck all holders.
oil at 59.8$
For those that might worry (needlessly most of the time) about the difference between crude prices (eg OANDA or XBR) and the more commonly quoted ‘front month’ future LCO, the two are shown on this chart today - XBR being darker green and LCO lighter - to show that it usually makes little difference chart-wise providing you consistently use one or the other.
The last 5 days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bjs08
Pretty much everything went south today along with G: just check out RDSb in the chart at the end! Having done relatively well on Friday G appeared to be hit a bit harder today. Anyhoo, Brent’s fall of just over 4% during the five days of the above chart have been matched by just over 7% drop in G - which does indicate that G is being disproportionately hit. Consequently the good old multiple of Gs sp to $/bbl has dropped from the recently solid 3.0x to below 2.9x and the ‘buyback boost’ might consequently be starting to erode - can’t say for definite until OP stops falling and G flattens out again,
Tempted to buy? I wasn’t - having added at the 180 resistance/trend level on Friday, 175 wasn’t sufficiently lower to bring out the essential reserve. You always need to leave some spare cash after buying G at a supposed low because it very often drops a bit further - especially with OP in the driving seat. At 170 I think I’d have committed a bit more.
Meanwhile, if you are hankering after switching cash into RDS it’s worth keeping an eye on -
The other runners and riders since last October’s good times: https://invst.ly/bjrzu
If we get an update that says we are pumping, lets say, 10% more oil and a restart of the buy back, I can so no reason that we'll be heading towards £2 again...aimho
Maybe Ocelot. G down to below 2.9x Brent - let's see if it recovers by the close.
There'll be a strong pull towards 170 now, unfortunately. A lot of buyers would hang back I think.
Here's the last five days, with OP moves during the night/weekend shown: https://invst.ly/bjf9m
At $61.10, Brent down about $1.10 v Friday's close of stock market level of about $62.20, getting on for 2%.
At 176.20, Genel down 4.2%.
Looks a bit excessive.
Casino wasn't pretty but not really worth looking in before tomorrow as mm will be taking every opportunity to inject fear before the update - it takes courage for sure but I'm not reading too much in to todays drop
It's worth noting that when Brent hit $61 last week the market was closed and the price had recovered by the next open, so this is effectively the lowest G has seen since before the buybacks. The 15p boost that those introduced is now looking fragile.
At least G stuck to the playbook this morning following the bigger than anticipated drop in OP overnight quite predictably.
https://invst.ly/bhm1z
Good to see the 15p buyback differential has held - so far - with G/OP ratio just under 3 at around 2.95, otherwise we'd have been sub 170. Keeping some powder dry for that possibility.
As a pure play on OP these days, I picked a few up at 180
Suspect the results will be same old same old. This year has turned into a total let down. I suspect I’ll soon be out of Genel and moving to gold or something like fresnillo. I’m sick and tired of this market, oil never going anywhere and this share never doing anything and the company executing nothing whatsoever, I’ll go in quiet mode but sure some will be glad to hear I’ve pretty much given up
Last five trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bhd46
Of the usual runners and riders, it was the turn of RDS and DNO to suffer today following their respective results.
For G it was business as usual, albeit a bit weaker, and back under 3x OP. GKP presumably continuing to benefit from buybacks with G second today in terms of the day’s performance: https://invst.ly/bhdbl
Although I’m hoping to see company activity and results on the 6th point to improved sp prospects for G, yesterday’s performance by DNO didn’t bode well. I’m certainly not anticipating the plus 300p levels that some analysts were recently touting as targets for G, I’d love to either know what they really think or what they are smoking. In the meantime I'm revising my view of G downward as a 180p -210p share - at least on that basis I'm not forever being disappointed and there's still a 20-30p trading margin in prospect.
G’s FY guidance, I believe, was based on average OP for the year of $65 and my amateur record puts it currently at $65.5 for the calendar year to date. There’ll undoubtedly be some blips but I’m quite convinced by the rationale that OPEC+ will moderate the price as required to encourage US shale to pump themselves dry as fast as possible for minimal overall profit. $60 to $65 (with WTI around $10 lower) rather looks like their sweet spot. I gather the true cost of producing US Shale tends to be obscured because borrowing costs are often omitted - some sources suggest per bbl costs are often up to $70, which is staggering.
Last five trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bgxzr
For all the sp fireworks, DNO’s results enabled their sp to just about keep up with Brent over the last five days, which is more than can be said for G, where the sp woke up about mid-morning only to promptly hit a ceiling at 194 before sliding back below 192. If that was a preview of next week then guess how that’s going to run.
G was 228 in early March when Brent was $65.7. So we’ve seen a 35p + drop due to the poorly received annual statement and/or alleged selling by a major holder. G’s sp is much the same as it was last November 20th when Brent was $62, so around seven months with no improvement in sp despite continued cash accrual, the Chevron deal and increased production guidance - plenty of supposedly good news but offset, it appears, by deep disappointment about gas and the Miran write down. The Miran thing can be spun as much as G likes - but it looks like it was seriously bad news as far as the market was concerned.
GKP, meanwhile, is doing well. To be fair it’s currently a straightforward proposition - we’ll pump Shaikan dry and pass the profits to shareholders and, once it’s over, our job is done.
Just to add, GKP was around 2.5% up over the day in a rather obvious mirror action - this (and the opposite) does happen at times which always begs the question about whether cash is being shifted from one to the other....
Last five trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bgg84
It ‘s arguably been the worst day for G for a while, now back under 3x OP, despite Brent itself being up. DNO suddenly dropped about 5% after a 1% spike up near yesterday’s close and this was echoed to a lesser extent by G losing around 1.25%. Not sure about the reasons or any linkage as I write.
G has remained fairly flat at nominally 190 for nine days so, according to its usual behaviour, it is due to shift either up or down in the next week or so
https://invst.ly/bgglt
Forgot to say.... the Buyback uplift (15p / 8.5% ) is still there - a pretty resilient strategy it seems:
https://invst.ly/bf-wn