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Pretty sure they won’t be selling more going by the Chief Exec of Calculus’ (John Glencross) post on LinkedIn. “ Few people know that Calculus was the founder investor in Genedrive and remains a significant shareholder” David Budd said he is appreciative of their support in the comments.
The seller has created opportunity - they won't be around forever. Near 10M traded the last few days. With the PR being cranked up I would not want to be out of this when approvals and contracts start landing (and that's before sales). David effectively said the muted period is over - time to shout about GDR from the roof tops. I think we could have a 15-20M trading week and so where that takes us! Exciting week and month(s) ahead
@miggy ha yeh exactly, my expectation continues to be set at 0% until we’re told otherwise
Scart- that would be nice:) but expectation is the mother of all disappointments so I won’t expect it but if it does happen then it’s a bonus. Yes the 200,000 does include antibody tests.
@miggy I don’t think people have said GDR wouldn’t be dealing with them, I think it’s been posters putting down the ramps that we would be the exclusive provider (me included).
NCYT will he supplying about 20% of the 200,000 a week (based on known contracts) and my understanding is antibody tests are included in this total as well. If we could get something like 20%, even 10%, then I’m certainly not going to be unhappy about that. But if that’s the case, then given the 200,000 target starts tomorrow you’d think we’d already have to be onboard... which means we’d get an RNS tomorrow imo
The TR1s on Friday all had 44,870,071 as total number of shares.
...confusingly the same page stills says further down that....
"Issued Share Capital: The total number of genedrive plc ordinary shares of 1.5p each in issue is 34,870,701....and....
"This data was updated on 22nd April 2020."
I've sent them an email to upadte this page correctly.
Agreed Miggy007 - referenced multiple times in Sky interview.
Whilst appreciate bigger fish in sea, would be nice to see product put to use in NHS.
Expect would be green light from UK investor perspective as well.
Probably nothing but I’ve just had a tweet that Genedrive are now following NHS England. Considering that there has been a lot of comment about GDR not dealing with them CEO did reference them quite a bit in one of the interviews last week. Be interesting to see if anything develops on that front.
What I'm not sure on, is if say an institution held say 2.5% and they took another 2% in the placing, in theory they would then hold 4.5%, but if they forward sold using their original holding, they would never actually ever breach the 3% limit
My expectation is the in theory would never be made official, hence any of these types would also fall through our net of tracking who has done what
The reason I also believe this to be the case is re examining the result of placing rns, it comes across as though they stated BGF were part of placing because BGF were already a >3% holder, not because they have loan notes
Hence on reflection I think if calculus had been part of placing I reckon they would have appeared on that result rns as well
We know BGF forward sold, plus they sold a bit more too
They was more selling Friday so this could also have been calculus and BGF getting their final amounts sold
It is my expectation that a fair chunk of the placing shares went to those that would never breach 3% so they would not pop up
For example somebody held 1%, they took up another 1% in placing, and so forward sold their original 1%, we will just never know about those types
@marve ah yeh ok, I've got my head around what you were saying now, thanks :-)
I appreciate IIs behaviour is different, it's just we thought it was due to forward selling which made sense.
@scart
We know calculus have been selling shares
The 28 May holding rns is not a changed in shares, it's only a change in percentage holding because of the placing
The calculus CEO could hardly be tweeting that they own Genedrive shares while in the middle of them selling
Which tells me calculus have now stopped selling and are happy with what they got to go forward with
As always institutions won't act like us private investors
Looks like Twitter must read this board, few retweet of the calculus guys tweet
Lets have a storming start to June, hopefully various different news not far away
@marve I didn’t really get what you were saying about Calculus... if they’re tweeting etc and promoting the company, then why wouldn’t they have taken placing shares and why are they selling i.e. when they don’t have shares to forward sell?
Genedrive website for significant holders
http://www.genedriveplc.com/investor-relations/shareholders.php
It is only up to date for the 8.30am RNS from Friday and so could be a few more tomorrow which will include Friday's action
For example BGF had 4.459m shares before placing announcement and by end of 28 May they had 3.506m, so we know they got rid 0.953m plus the 1.563m they took in the placing, meaning they have at least shifted 2.516m
That said some new institution could have got 1.34m in the placing and only been 2.99% overall so we would never know about them
Great interview. Fills me with confidence. Had to laugh about 1 min 30 from the end where he referenced the “end of the world” instead of the “end of the year” in a Freudian slip LMAO
This ties in my post yesterday re Calculus that they are promoting the C19 test in their site. I too think they’ve finished.
I saw a lot of talk about GDR on Friday in another group I am in. The talk was promoting it in the run up to the interviews then some clearly pulled out after. Maybe it was simply traders that took us down on Friday as they weren’t happy with what they saw.
They’ll be back.
CEO and Co Founder of Calculus has today tweeted the proactive interview
https://mobile.twitter.com/GlencrossJohn/status/1267037301877637125
The last time he tweeted about Genedrive was on 5 May about the Hepatitis WHO approval
Since then Calculus have been selling some shares
The RNS on 28 May shows the impact of the placing on Calculus, 15.11% of 34,870,871 is same as 11.74% of 44,870,871
I therefore do not think Calculus took any shares in the placing, they were also not mentioned in the RNS on 5 May for the placing result, like BGF were who also had over 10% pre placing
What does all this mean? Calculus must now be finished selling, FINISHED
Their extra selling as well as placing holders has also held us back