Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
9p gone, double figures soon
Cryptic posts. I love them.
... How many teams played in the rugby 6 nations
Clever one who (really) UNDERSTAND big picture / developments will be liquidating other low impact / speculative holdings to build this one as Free share become tighter held - this is NOT investment advice, I do not care what you do.
Header say All!
Header say All and maybe help people understand what is going on here - if you want part of this Buy if not Watch!
*For me people talk about great staggering upside investment prospects (most rubbish talk) but we have REAL one here - even little research make this clear I think!
We know and expect 'circus' of posters , subtle or not subtle de-ramps etc - this is natural but we also have great wealth of knowledgeable, WELL RESEARCHED posters - thank you!
Mr Searcher - thank you for reminding us of SUMMARY / Latest BBC - State Minister highly important comments - POST 22:28 (also some financial metric Post 22:50).
Mr Adam - Very good point about £800M mkt cap target & other points at time POST 22:15 (new arrival with 'Circus' does not have this benefit of experience Lol).
Agree with mr Bangla with $1 Bn pledge by Chinese to get coal out & with close connection with Govt / Infrastructure Projects talk of Muslim country not letting non- Muslim set up in country does not make sense in really.
Think people begin to understand how all this argument put against what Header try to say & also why many small private investor will maybe always stay small - focus on ££s not Pennies.
GCM type Opportunity very very rare whatever BB posters like to say - do basic research - become very clear then! 🦉
Hi Adam
I also thing the $500 million per year cashflow benefit from the over burden in its first year is a massive plus for the companý. A nice earner while we wait for coal to come out of the ground.
“The government has set a target of generating 2,865 MW of electricity in May-June with coal without Adani. Of this, 325 MW will come from Barapukuria. It will be 2,540 MW from imported coal. Apart from this, Adani's Kodda power plant is expected to get 750 MW of electricity per day from March 26.
But the government is unable to import coal and LNG as it does not have the necessary dollars. As a result, no preparations are being made to deal with the upcoming summer load shedding.”
“According to Power Division sources, there is no shortage of production capacity to meet the power demand. However, there is a shortage in the supply of coal, LNG and fuel oil for power generation.”
https://www.dailypost.net/national/dollar-crisis----load-shedding-scare-again-rise/7501
If you read back through the last rns Christian done before he left you will see a detailed and legal examination was done on the licence and it was found to be water tight , legally binding and enforceable by international law, so it won’t be getting nationalised unless the buy it ,
As of the last RNS China has pledged 1 billion dollars to get the coal out of the ground ,they are now partners in the mine and not just the power station This in my opinion was asked for by the Bangladesh government so as they could pass it of as them doing a deal with there partners , China, The share price will be many times were it is now very soon and any future dilution will be small , there will be no need for any fundraising as soon as we start recovering the top soil minerals above the coal estimated at 17 billion , I also think is billion market cap is reasonable will a 100billion asset
Ok, so you don’t have an answer to my question. Lol
And there is nothing to stop them Nationalising the lot .
And just working with the Chinese
Tell me what the AISC costs are Adam of getting the coal out are?
I don't think GCM will be bought out Adam. As your call today intimated, GCM is going to take on a Bangladesh complexion with the new neds, and the licence will be divvied up iro profits with quite a few % to different parties in Bangladesh and to PC but I do think GCM might retain a decent % of the pie for management control which will be no easy task and as acknowledgement for years of hard work and keeping the government up to date with progress and also to permit easy fundraising as required.
Bangladesh is a muslim country with a non fungible stockmarket and they will not allow, imo, a thoroughly western company set up in their country. PIs need to be pretty reasonable over expectations with the above in mind.
This is what is being thrashed out in outline at a guess so that the change in direction can be announced with a fanfare if not the detail straight away.
I envisage 1bn shares in issue with a 50p price tag after 4 years as acceptable for them with the discount to this giving a rapid rise on approval and then a less steep rise. Potential for rerates as operational metrics are available in annual reports.
All musings imo
Shows up 24% today shre went to 9p at 9.30am bounced up and down next hour within the 12% spread.
Fell back to 7.6p by 4pm closing back at 9p .
Last Monday the spread was 9% .
I am sure he won't mind me doing this, but here is another re-post from Pappi on the 12th March at 8.10am
Reading that article from yesterday 'Fulbari holds $83 billion worth of coal and $17 billion worth of other resources' the company has told us it will take 2 years to strip the overburden and get to first coal, so my simplistic first thought was so if we roughly dig a third to start there is going to be almost $5billion in cash flow in the first 2-3 years before we even get to the coal, So ichecked it out with someone who would know how this works though mine was a simplistic view it was on the right track the way the overburden business actually works is it would be stripped over the 30 year mine life it's an ongoing process a prorata estimate would be appx $500m a year at little cost (other than some processing and stockpiling } as the mine carries the extraction cost, what this means is that we could have positive cash flow in months after starting the overburden removal
Just thought it was worth re-posting this from the excellent article from Pappi's posted this morning for those that may of missed it, -
A summary of Interview with State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid :-
1) “Country's coal mines will be presented to the Prime Minister by April and approval will be sought.”
2) Phulbari, Dighipara and Khalashpi all to be put forward as proposed mines to be developed
3) Bangladesh is preparing to extract its own coal to reduce energy crisis and import dependency in the future, where there are also plans to extract coal in the open system.
4) If coal extraction is approved at this stage, it will be possible to lift coal within the next three years by starting mining work.
5) Nasrul Hamid said 3,000 tonnes of coal is currently extracted daily from Barapukuria. There are more possibilities and it is possible to extract 8,000 to 9,000 tons of coal a day.
6) Recommendation for open-pit coal mining
7) Considering the energy crisis and future energy security, the energy division plans to extract coal from three new coal mines – Phulbari, Dighipara and Khalashpi.
8) The state minister told BBC Bangla that among these three, Phulbari can be made open pit and the remaining two are underground.
9) In this situation, energy experts see the need to take a quick decision on domestic coal extraction.
I’ll answer for you Duster, previously we were at £8 per share with a target price of £21 thats a £800 million mcap for approval when the coal price was lower, no partners, none of the studies completed the past 15 years, a path to commercialisation that would’ve taken considerably longer with many obstacles, so yeah a billion is definitely within reach and for your metrics that’s 1% of asset value, which is a below minimum metric reading for any book you might recommend. Lol
Fyi i’m of the opinion we get bought out before any coal is sold, the Chinese will be all over this once approved. Paying a billion $ mcap value for a 100 billion asset is good business, wouldn’t you agree?
My response wasn’t from GCM - i contacted our Nomad and asked to speak to the person listed on RNS, he wasn’t available so spoke to a colleague who was very forthcoming.
Advised them of our predicament and any advice is appreciated, he asked which company i was calling about and was super helpful discussing in more detail than i expected (all of which I can’t write on here - but if anyone needs peace of mind, it’s definitely worth a call).
Duster the last time this WAS ABOUT to get given the go ahead it had a mcap of over 300 million, that was when the price of coal was considerably less than what it is now, before we had a financier and partner in Power China providing us with an avenue to actually extract the coal, before agreements were reached with locals to move them out.
If we were a 300 mcap on ‘potential’ approval then, what would we have been if given it??? Add into that all of the above and you’ll come to the realisation that you’re the one talking crap.
What value would you put on a 100 billion $ resource? Given we have a path to commercialisation lined up already
Don't talk nonsence
This is not going to shoot to a billion market cap on approval just because you have a value in the ground does not equate to the market cap of any company.
You need to read a book and learn value metrics .
And stop spouting carp unrealistic valuations some fools might believe you .
Adam - wrt your response from GCM today, why did you call them as opposed to emailing first? Or perhaps you did email first?
Fyi - there’s a 17 billion resource available to us while getting through to the bigger 83 billion coal resource (2-3 years) so we’ll be making considerable cash along the way.
Main short term goal is approval, that will automatically put us at a billion pound mcap AT LEAST which is many many multiples of today’s SP.
Tarkadahl 100%
Last ditch attempt at a de-ramp before this goes off tomorrow! Good going people 👏🏼 Don’t forget the bigger picture and how close this is! Production may be a long way off but the deal is very much as close as it ever has been!!!
Trawling old advfn messages I found this
29 September 2020
Polo Resources Limited
( " Polo " or the " Company ")
AIM Delisting
Polo Resources Limited (AIM: POL), the multi-sector investment company with interests in oil, gold, coal, copper, phosphate, lithium, iron and vanadium, has been unable to appoint an AIM Nominated Adviser within the timeframe set by the AIM Rules. The Company's shares will therefore be delisted with effect from 30 (th) September 2020 and will no longer trade on the AIM exchange.