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sounds great, all these wonderful Chinese power stations being build and financed by Beijing. 50% - but what if we are in the 50% not being built and financed by China. On the other hand, it seems impossible to believe that Bangladesh is planning / building all this capacity without using its own fuel. When Hasina looks at the spreadsheets, even she is going to have to recognise that importing vast quantities of coal is going to hammer their balance of payments + at some point, the debts / loans to China, Japan etc...will need to be repaid. As for the carbon bomb - do we really think China cares, they look across the Pacific at Trump and his fracking frenzy...………..nah, they'll just get on with their B&I initiative. …..ignore the sceptics and the activists. C'mon Prime Minister Hasina - sign off the Phulbari project and ignore world opinion too.
China is set to add new coal-fired power plants equivalent to the EU’s entire capacity, as the world’s biggest energy consumer ignores global pressure to rein in carbon emissions in its bid to boost a slowing economy. Across the country, 148GW of coal-fired plants are either being built or are about to begin construction, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit group that monitors coal stations. The current capacity of the entire EU coal fleet is 149GW.While the rest of the world has been largely reducing coal-powered capacity over the past two years, China is building so much coal power that it more than offsets the decline elsewhere.
is what it remains, until we hear from GCM. When we do hear, I don't expect it to be pretty - ongoing discussions, new partners etc... Intransigence by the GOB and a reluctance to commit to anything concrete going forward will be the theme. At 50p / share, the Chinese or Petrobangla could snap up GCM. But they haven't and I find that aspect the most disturbing. Drive the company down to nil value and then seize the asset. Standard AIM practice with the tiddlers and wipes out the shareholders. BUT - Michael Tang is a lawyer and he and his associates hold a lot of the equity / payment promises...…..there is a big incentive there to keep fighting and I feel comfortable that the legal ties will be fairly water-tight. We truly need some luck in our direction,
Jazzers, Genuine question, Under what circumstances do you think GCM would see a penny if GOB decided not to proceed with the development plan submitted, sorry discussed for submission in Jan 2019 which has yet to be submitted in November 2019? GCM are a private enterprise, apart from paying for a license that allows them to prepare for development they have nothing. If GOB remove the license then GCM will have had to have broken the rules, they haven't. Ergo no payout. The question you should be asking is "what going to last longer, the GOB decision making process once submission has taken place OR GCM liquidity status?" China wont hang around forever without movement and GCM can't loose £1.3m a year forever either. The GOB have proven over the last 14 years that coal can remain in the ground as long as it suits them. Fusion98
Granted China have "won" laugh, a lot of contracts to build infrastructure all with money on a loan agreement from... oh yer China and the PM may be playing the "look at your new railway in 56 months time" card we need power for building a future. However if you google map the town/city of phulbari, the people are dirt poor and I personally think she is choosing projects with the biggest impact with least resistance, better transport being a fine example. The loans will mount up through and the question will be, will she sign up for more than they can afford (Tony Blair and his 99 year rent lease on hospitals - which lasts longer the loan or the hospital?) or worst still turn the country into the next African state with crippling repayment plans? (no Bang is not in Africa before you shout) Ironically no one seems to have noticed SXX and the similarities, get the approval and immedaitly dilute all share holders out of existance on the same day, that would be ironic after 14 years of waiting. Thoughts? (happy clappers need not apply, i'm sure i'll be listed as a "deramper" laugh, or better yet maybe i'll be upgraded to a broker trying to get in cheaper (ffs really?) Let the hate message commence......
Sheikh Hasina hasn't signed off phulbari due to 50,000 people standing up to the original development plan over 10 years ago, if they kicked off that would be a riot to watch. She is leaving at the end of this period and not standing for the next. Who is to say she doesn't sign it off before walking out the door only to be cancelled by the next pm? Well it wouldn't do her legacy any good would it and for that reason alone i dont think she ever will. Roll onto the next PM please.
Tang has brought the Chinese on board as not only have the ability to produce the Project, but they also have the influence to sway Hasina and the GoB. All the Chinese projects in BD provide leverage for that decision. The successful outcome of the other Chinese projects is important and why having these deals agreed and succeed is important to us.
China wins US$3 billion bid to build rail line in Bangladesh - will we ever see the same headline for 6000 MW power project at Phulbari. Its pretty obvious from all the articles GP has posted, that China is deeply embedded in the current and future development of Bangladesh. However, does Hasina still think that she can get away with importing huge amounts of coal, when everyone is telling her that Phulbari must go ahead to help protect the foreign exchange account. Bangladesh's own supply of high grade thermal coal provides such a cushion from the vagaries of the market as well as lower generation costs. A 'No-brainer'..??……...not to her it isn't, she sees civil unrest, population displacement and the loss of agriculturally important land.