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FRES should be £14 at least...and with PM prices so high £20 wouldn't be frowned upon. So at the price levels of today its certainly a keeper this one
1 hour of trading left. come on fres show us your true value!
HI T123
I think we are all in the same boat. Financials ( to be confirmed tomorrow) should be stellar.
Inflation 'transitory' for now, but could pop higher.
Silver squeeze possible.
SP massively under where it has been historically.
We hope it plays catch up. Lets see what tomorrow brings. I can wait for the market to change its mind on this one.
So lets say $1.7bn revenue, and full year profit after tax of what? $1bn, is that too high? With 737 million shares in issue, you would be looking at EPS of around $1.35 or about 95p per share. Assuming they maintain the dividend policy at 50% of EPS, that could well be a 45-50p dividend, or around 6% yield at todays price.. and with a $1bn cash pile already, would they consider adding a special dividend on top as well to return cash to shareholders? Or a share buyback possibly while the SP is so artificially low.. ?
So what am I missing here? why on earth is this share only at 800p today when these kind of results could get announced tomorrow? I mean we already know from the production figures that they are on track.. perhaps they are concerned about the effects of inflation impacting on costs / profits? Its the only thing I can think of.. the mexican peso has been fairly stable against the USD this year as well - so no real impact from FX rates..
regards,
T123
Filling gaps, retests etc etc all a load of bumf. It'll either go up or go down or even sideways and I'm no Mistic Meg.
i hope i have been a little conservative on the sale prices so maybe round it up to $1.7bn in revenue
Yep Thank You JMT 1234.
Next add Lead and Zinc revenues ....Hopefully the analysts will get close to $1.675 billion...
Hi oliverthehardy, production for H1 2021 is as per recent report . I have estimate selling prices for over the first half.
silver 27,500,000 oz selling price $25?
gold 428,ooo oz selling price $1800?
lead 31,726 tonnes selling price $2,100?
zinc 53,568 tonnes selling price $2,800?
that makes $1.675 bn in revenue. I think you were missing lead and zinc sales.
What does everyone else have?
Lesson 2:
Take Last Year's Revenue $1,054,900. Then adjust Last Year's Silver production figure in the RNS and increase it by the % uplift figure in last week RNS .and then scale up the Silver Price by the increase in prices over the last year..... and multiply together.
Repeat this calculation for Gold with both the increases in production and prices.
Did you get an estimated H1 Revenue figure for FRES in the region of $1,364,00?
Then put in the spreadsheet.... Did the indicative share price go up? YES....
break 821p then retest of 833p
gap closed. now gap to the upside need filling! break 825p and its off to the races!
almost all miners are throwing off cash and massive dividend hikes. RIO BHP etc etc M&A seems to be muted as the execs learned their lessons from last bull market where they went mad. The only miner that is not at a multi year is this one. Bizzare.
carvegyber, Do I need to educate the analysts?
Lesson 1. Take H1 2020 Silver revenue x Silver Price 1.39 x Silver production x 1.027 = Estimated FRES Silver revenue for H1 2021.
Take H1 2020 Gold Revenue x Gold price x 1.058 x Gold Production x 1.127 = Estimate FRES Gold revenue for H1.
Then put the figures in the spreadsheet left by the previous financial analysts.
DOH.
RBC raisers fres to 1025 outperform, but then JP Morgan cuts fres to 1000 neutral rating, you can't make it up.
You do have a point that I fear. Initially I felt that for 15 min when the production report came out and then the SP rose and rose. Up 10% from the lows.
We can only wait and see. GDX is poised for a breakout so let's see if the trend reverses. I am hoping that there will be a slew of positive results across the world's miners thus setting off a bull.
The obsession with gaps over at the ADVFN chat goes on...maybe someone can point out a gap at £13.92 needs filling from 20th Feb 18. That the one I'm interested in
the thing that has me concerned is this. Who will be surprised at tomorrows results being mega? Surely everyone can see this and thus perhaps the whole sector is just out of favour. Another spark may be needed to generate interest.
Oliver, crazy we are at this price isn't it? I am really keen to see the analyst reaction over the next few days after the results are out. If there is a slew of upgrades on ratings, then we know the analysts are backward looking rather than being able to work out what is coming.....
P45 in the post for CHRI55.
FRES Results tomorrow.....
H1 2020 vs H1 2021: Silver Price UP 39% and Silver Production UP 2.7%
Gold Price UP 5.8% and Gold Production UP 12.7%...
How good are the analyst in the CIty?
Silver holding up much better than gold recently. Normally it's the other way around.
so much for 8.33 at open !
Someone let the fizz out. Just dreading the return of the bears now. LMAO....
looking good for monday. results out Tuesday. I would not want to be out!!
volume on this is actually still relatively good but trading sideways. Spread still tight so any gold upside should see this break upwards.