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We have a $200M+ capex commitment for drilling that was agreed to when the agreement with Origin was executed. There was also a reasonable timeline to completion that was unfortunately given up on the last amendment in return fir increased spend. I get all the delays that have been out of their control but to move slow now is completely ridiculous. That’s why I strongly feel something is going to happen sooner than later. Nothing adds up right now and while it’s easy to call the respective parties incompetent, I don’t believe that’s a reflection of what’s truly going on. We will know soon enough.
Oilcountry99 "The present arrangement no longer works for me." While I am totally in agreement with losing patience -- as I am sure is the case for just about every other long term shareholder!!! However, -- we are all stuck in this mess until Origin or one of the other more aggressive drillers next door shows a real path to commerciality. The only way out for anyone with more than a few hundred thousand shares (that would tank this stock to almost zero with any significant level of selling) is to wait for either Origin or Santos or Tamboran to show the way forward to production. Once we see production is clearly on the horizon -- then I expect POQ to begin to follow the long term plan of monetizing Falcon's interest -- but it won't happen before we see that on the horizon.
Newtofo - if there was a plan to expedite exploration with a detailed plan with committed dates, I’d be fine hanging in here for 2 more years. Unfortunately, after 12 years and no appreciation in my investment, I’ve lost patience and would be happy to take a net present value of a future valuation, assuming it’s reasonable. I’d also be very supportive of receiving shares in exchange for mine in a new co that would be run by an organization with the capital and expertise to aggressively develop the property. The present arrangement no longer works for me.
If Origin is negotiating a farm out I didn't think that Falcon would have any say in the matter if its own % remains the same. Or am I mistaken?
Newto,
Thanks for NOT parading out the Unicorns and Rainbows and giving a commonsense and thoughtful argument.
Oilcountry99 and dprussky,
While the possibility of some sort of deal with Origin (or others) being in works is certainly plausible (given what is already known and what is anticipated for gas assets across the Falcon permits) -- I do not believe, and certainly hope, that a deal is not already in the works.
There are a number of reasons for Falcon to be biding it's time currently -- not the least of which is the lack of proven commerciality so far in either the Falcon permits or the neighboring permits. With only a 22% interest in the 6.6 TCF of "CONTINGENT" resources around the greater Amungee H1 well, (and no real success anywhere else across the thousands of square km remaining to be tested) -- any deal in the works now would be at a very lowball level.
I don't believe that either POQ, after ten long years with Falcon, nor the three large block stock holders after even more time, -- are interested in selling until we get a better picture on both the dry and liquid gas potential across all three permits. There will be any number of very positive announcements coming both later this year and next year from the Falcon permits and from our neighbors -- that will put a much higher value cap on any deal than what would be on the table now. Any firm deal for Falcon's interest in the Beetaloo currently would pale in comparison what is most likely only two years away, and after all this time and with all of Australia excited about the Beetaloo -- I don't want and certainly don't expect to hear about any deal for at least another year.
While there most certainly are a number of interested parties in Falcon's 22.5% interest, -- given the massive level of support by governments and industry, -- I don't believe for a second that POQ has entered into or is entertaining any offers until he has a much clearer picture of what the true value may be with our Beetaloo permits.
The upcoming Overriding Royalty payment of $7.5 million is certainly a problem, but with more than enough cash in the bank, or possibly another extension, or maybe a private placement -- this can certainly be handled before the end of August.
The Extension highlights are as follows:
Allows Falcon to exercise its 30% share of the call option up to and including 31 August 2021.
Falcon to pay US$500,000 to the TOG Group for granting the Extension
The cost of exercising Falcon’s portion of the call option increases from US$4.5m to US$7.5m.
Correction - The overriding interest payment is due in August 2021 not July….so this may play out a little longer. If we here about another extension to the ORI…all bets are off.
Dprussky - your theory provides further support to mine. I think there was speculation that Origin was going to present a progress update a week back that didn’t occur….at least that I’m aware. I was actually happy that didn’t happen, as it lends further credibility to the possibility they are working to finalize a deal. The silence is deafening and our share price is at 2 year low, when things have never been brighter. Makes zero sense unless a deal is in the works.
I’m still of the opinion our stock is being intentionally suppressed to prevent any speculative trading and so that “any” deal will look good for our current stock price. Still feel it will be around $1.
We have the deferred overriding interest payment due in July (if memory serves me correctly). That’s another reason I feel a deal will be announced by the end of this month.
If it all plays out as suspected, the frustration caused by the lack of communication will all make sense. Fingers crossed we’re close to knowing the truth soon.
Article in guardian re federal labour support for developing the Beetaloo and the gas industry in Oz.
Hard to see with all the political support that we won't eventually see some serious progress here.
Tired of the excuses, its nothing more complicated than years of incompetence. I think that is Theory # 10,973 that is pulled out of some ones a$$, with or without the so called reliable sources that some of the clowns boast about on here. Completely made up hooey for the most part, luckily most of these posters have disappeared but will return in time. People here just want this to succeed, keep it real.
Green, you're almost in "basher" mode!
Does anyone know where you can pick up some of the stuff dprussky is smoking because that might be the thing that makes me feel better!
The only difficulty I have dprussky is that as far as I'm concerned Origin were going to continue and we would at some stage hear news about the continued testing and we have a schedule though not specific details re drilling this year. Personally speaking I would rather see process more testing and drilling and moving the sp forward rather than waiting with no news as to what's going on. In my experience this often leads to a down trend in the sp. Also, if they don't have something to inform us re testing stopped for example I would rather that be communicated. Lack of communication I don't think gives a good feeling re progress.
Hopefully we will get some news in the next couple of weeks as it is heading towards the end of the first half of the year.
Atb,
Northern
I concur. There has to be a significant reason for the lack of activity (communication and site performance). Your hypothesis makes good sense. Let’s hope you are correct and we see closure soon.
Your scenario would explain why people who have always had a reply from Falcon didn't even get the courtesy of a 1 line "expect a press release soon" or some such.
The good news is that if you're right then negotiations are on a deadline. Maybe the only time the rainy season has had a plus side!
I can't think of any other feasible reason for the complete radio silence so your theory makes sense to me.
I spend some time thinking about where we are with Falcon and what is next. It is been strange and sometimes difficult, but I think I finally have something that may lift the spirits of everyone on this board. But first you need to make few assumptions:
1. POQ is working for us and is not playing golf or having beers.
2. Origin is not looser and they know what they doing.
So with this in mind lets review current situation. Origin just started to move on Kaylla , satellite images showing some activity but not much. Origin also looking for another partner this news came out 3 months ago. Maybe already found one. The logic is simple if you are negotiating the deal with another partner you need to stop your operations. The potential partner maybe is doing discovery and what that means everything has to stay frozen while this discovery is happening and NDA are strictly enforced. I am 80% sure that is what is happening.
Now Falcon - with 20 something %% sitting in the great position to negotiate. Here is the deal lets say we have someone like Inpex huge Japanese company. They will be only interested in the equal or majority position, so If you split Origin position in half, Falcon becomes major and deciding vote in this partnership. Ether Origin or Impex will not want that... So that is where negotiations are happening and POQ earning his paycheck.