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Darnit, while there is no doubt that being subservient to Origin would be a major roadblock for outfits like Santos , it may not be as big of an issue for someone like Inpex.
Inpex's primary driver -- if they did buyout Falcon's 22% interest -- would be to secure that 22% of gas for the additional two LNG trains in Darwin that Inpex wants to build, but must have something close to another 10 TCF of secure gas resources before proceeding on the next two trains. I would think that Origin would be amenable to having a minority partner whose main interest was just an offtake of 22% of the gas being produced and in return would be more than willing to let Origin make all the decisions on production.
The real bonus with someone like Inpex (or possibly Conoco Phillips with the other LNG termininal in Darwin) is they don't need to sell their portion of the Beetaloo gas into the open market and then wait to see how much profit may be derived after all the other gathering, distribution and selling costs are incurred. Inpex would be happy to just take their share of the gas as feedstock into the two new LNG trains and get their profit out the other end when the LNG is transported to Japan and China.
new, " The fact that Inpex agreed to apply for that small Falcon acreage is a very good thing. It shows that Inpex is extremely interested in securing on shore gas for the next two LNG trains, and with the lands they hold not being very prospective -- Inpex might find it much easier and cheaper to just buy out Falcon's 22% interest. There are already fairly good indications that Falcon's 22% of the Beetaloo contains more recoverable gas than Inpex found in the offshore Browse Basin."
Here's the fly in the ointment. Inpex would hold a subservient position to Origin, thus, Origin would be in the driver's seat and Inpex would be on for the ride. Now, if Inpex bought both Falcon and Origin's positions, then it would be viable.
tnbird, just so you (nor anyone else) is counting on Origin drilling those two horizontals at the Kyalla 117 well pad -- there has been no final decision that those two horizontals will be proceeding.
It would be fantastic if the final flow numbers on the 117 well are strong enough for Origin to go ahead with drilling two more full length 3km horizontals, but that decision has not been made at this point and won't be made until they get the final flow numbers -- most likely into July.
The recent NT approvals on for two more horizontals into the lower Kyalla -- were applied for just over a year ago, and have only now been added to the NT's approved list of horizontal fracked wells. Origin put in the EMP submission's for two more horizontals "just in case" they really liked the flow results -- so that there would be no time wasted if the flow results are great. Origin also submitted an EMP to do the Velkerri 76 flank well -- and that was approved last Fall -- so they can shift drilling in that direction as well -- if or when they so decide.
Inpex has always been very high on POQ's target list of buyers, due to their very massive expenditure on the Browse Basin and the two LNG trains at Darwin. Inpex has already notified the NT government that they want to build two more LNG trains beside the existing two, and there is no doubt that they would be following every development in the Beetaloo closely.
There is a chance that Inpex's existing permit in the Beetaloo -- may not ever proceed to full scale exploration -- unless there are better indications that the area they now hold a permit on -- shows better promise for shale gas. Falcon had to relinquish approximately 15% of the total lands Falcon owned in the Beetaloo back to the NT government around 7 years ago -- under a drill or forfeit agreement with the NT Minerals dept. Falcon gave back the least prospective portion of the Beetaloo permits and the NT gov't convinced Inpex that they should take up that small area that Falcon released back to the NT Minerals dept.
The fact that Inpex agreed to apply for that small Falcon acreage is a very good thing. It shows that Inpex is extremely interested in securing on shore gas for the next two LNG trains, and with the lands they hold not being very prospective -- Inpex might find it much easier and cheaper to just buy out Falcon's 22% interest. There are already fairly good indications that Falcon's 22% of the Beetaloo contains more recoverable gas than Inpex found in the offshore Browse Basin.
Stebol......My guess..... if it is not Origin likely will be INPEX.......I'm hopeful if we get good numbers on the two new horizontals just approved and they improve the recent shows on liquids we will get some folks knocking on the door.....if Origin and FOG don't already have a back of the napkin deal on the table a bidding war could evolve and INPEX obviously has the dough to fight for more space in the BEETALOO
Encouraging to see the gov't have a clear strategy and want to speed things up. Commitment to the beetaloo is clear and maybe, just maybe, there is some sort of end in sight. Pleased to see Inpex have a permit application pending. I've always fancied them as potential buyers of our stake but that's probably just wishful thinking!
I have tiny holding of Origin, I bought with the few extra $$, plus they paying dividends so did not look like bad deal. Only problem I bought it using OTC market (OGFGF) , so I will never be able to sell with the current demand.
very good find tnbird. What great communication from Origin. Makes them look as though they are in partnership with the Aus govt on this. At least the document list FOG as one of the companies involved in the development of the Beetaloo. If only FOG would take a leaf out of the more communicative companies' books. Does anyone on this board hold Origin as well as FOG ? by the way, all the bleaters we get on here bleating about the FOG share price should check out the long term history of the Origin share price since it listed in 2000 (?) , currently 50% of what is was a couple of years ago, so pretty much the same story with Origin as it is with FOG (in some respects - Troll deflector mode "on") . The name of the game hasn't changed for a long time..............three most important things to remember about FOG are 1) be patient 2) be patient 3) be bloody patient Look at the timescale in the document tnbird kindly dug up for us, another few years then 20-40 years of production. FOG will be sold once the reserves are proven and there is a path towards production