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Good luck to you, Poods.
As said before, for the share price to reach 28p on expectation that the moratorium would be lifted, to stand still at 25p on the day it was lifted, and then fall to 5p, is not rational.
As Schopenhauer observed, man is not rational.
I was hoping to buy in the .07s but .....u set .10 seems. Nice.
Longknife-
Added another 250,000 today as the shares were available and nothing has changed except the day on the calendar or another day's pay at FOG HQ's. POODS
Darn it,
Or.....they just offered him more money.
Darnit
Much of the frustrations on this board is well founded but with Santos now active,Tamboran also,we are heading into 2 yrs of , what I believe will be decent delivery by Org given government inducement etc. and Empire moving at speed.
Santos activity alone will pressure org into action.
Since the moratorium ended,it has been difficult to get any momentum and hence the share price has suffered by a seller,lack of news and shareholder apathy.Once we get clarity on the kyalla,the runway opens up for the next few years.
Tolstoy once said "the two greatest soldiers are patience and time"
I might have inserted "extreme patience and eternity"in our case.
Best of luck
Ss
Sneaky, " What would you have done differently this year given the cards we were dealt with the kyalla we'll still pending and how you would see things panning out for 2022 in your scenario."
I will dodge that question, and simply respond that Origin's guy--David Close--with boots, ears and eyes on the ground--left. He didn't leave the Beetaloo, as he went to Santos. That should be confirmation enough that he felt a lack of support from Origin. He probably had to battle for every thing he wanted to do. Perhaps if he had sponsored a volleyball team with Origin Tee shirts they might have taken him more seriously.
There are some things Org is doing I like.
But sometimes Org shows actions, you do not see in the oil patch usually and that drives me mad. Like perforate, start production, stop the work, come back and start again, stop, start again and the years are gone. Oil companies are proud to manage drilling in the tundra or in the desert or in 3.000 m water depth 24/7. And in Australia, they cannot manage operations for 365 days? Yes, I know the nasty dirt roads in the outback during rain myself, but hay, that should not stop a real oil company. Bring in one of the big Hoover crafts from GB and use it as a shuttle between highway and drilling location or what ever ...
Or the hints that they got the Sw and cut off wrong perhaps - okay, other company get this wrong too, sometimes. But you are not very popular anymore when your log, your interpretation showed reservoir water during testing.
The 2021 work programme is expected to include the following:
Resume clean-up operations of Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 (“ Kyalla 117 ”) and commence an extended production test (“ EPT ”)
Drill Velkerri 76 S2-1 vertical well (“ Velkerri 76 ”)
Perform a production test at Amungee NW 1H
Drilling one onshore well, some testing and intervention? There could be done much more within 1 year. Even a tiny company with small headcount as Fog alone could manage this program itself.
Perhaps this Mr Close moved from Org to Sto after he realised the risk/ possibility that he drilled into the water??? No idea I am speculating. But why should you do this move when Fog+Org got the filet of the Beetaloo?
You earn the costs with the gas but the big $ will be earned with the hydrocarbon condensate. And that's the reason that the Org/Fog asset is the filet, the sweet spot of the Beetaloo - as long as this vision is not wrong.
Sneakysnake etal-
The seller seems to be under a perhaps self-imposed deadline which is good. The sooner those shares are sold, the sooner the price should adjust to whatever is the right level. Personally I believe it will go back to a range of 15-20p, and move up or down based on drilling results. Again, we either have inept management and / or seller. If one side or the other had called the other and say we would like to sell or buy the remaining, then the broker could determine at what price the block would trade. In all my many years I have never seen should ineptness. Pain will continue until someone at the controls uses their brain. Don't hold your breath. I will be adding again as at various times. POODS
Darnit
You really are frustrated.
I would ask you and Oleo what you would do differently then?
What would you have done differently this year given the cards we were dealt with the kyalla we'll still pending and how you would see things panning out for 2022 in your scenario.
Of course,we have a budget that needs to be adhered to so as to avoid any further fund raises.
Oleo,you are in the business so you might help me out .
We all know the velkerri dry has to be further appraised but how would you deal with the liquids rich areas given their economic benefit vs dry gas?
Santos don't have any options as their area is exclusively dry gas.
Ss
Oleo,
Thanks for setting the discussion on a truer course. If Seismic really pinpointed shale sweet spots, with the years of seismic and core study, we'd be toasting with champagne. If you want to know what you've got you drill. The Cheaper and quicker you drill the more you can drill and see what's down there. DFIT also leans towards the value of seismic, which is a poor tool for really seeing what's the prospect's true nature. This cluster f*** has failed on so many levels due to Origin's lack of experience and lack of intelligence in E&P shale. They could have bought good management and holding contest to see who might help is just adding insult to injury. Darn right I'm pulling for Santos and Empire.
Long knife
The departure of David Close was a hammer blow to Org and their Beetaloo plans.It was Santos's gain .
This year, Santos will hopefully demonstrate flow rate that show a path to commerciality of the velkerri dry gas and that will be huge for us.
We have other fish to fry with our liquids rich plays that would be a game changer if successful,an option Santos don't have as they are exclusively chasing dry gas.
Poods is bang on regards being careful how we spend our budget.Who wants another round of dilution?
Ss
Poods, you are right, when we talk about conventional O&G exploration.
But this workflow for shale gas, oil is not so critical . The sweet spot (=best h,k with moveable hydrocarbon) has to be identified and the optimum recipe for hydraulic fracturing has to be developed for commercial production. Shale gas, oil often use the trial, error approach just by drilling more wells to get a learning curve. I would be surprised positively if you could find the sweetest spot with the seismic in the Beetaloo after Fog kept the area which they think is the sweet spot already. Rather I would expect to see the learning curve getting better with a higher number of wells.
Poods,
No- I have never been in this business and I get what you’re saying but the Amungee, velkerri and Kyalla are all different areas, levels right? Shouldn’t we be starting on each of those now? I mean why wouldn’t we have tried to additionally prove up the Amungee last year while we were doing the Kyalla?
Longknife-
You ask a fair question. I do not know if you have ever been in the drilling, if so, you would understand the value of knowing everything you can before selecting a new location to drill. You can waste a lot of money, which FOG does not have, if you drill willy nilly. Each new well provides new information. After a couple well spaced and successful wells, one can pick up the drilling pace. We are not there yet. POODS
Green,
So when I read this I see some hype and the fact that Empire plans to drill one horizontal well this year?
I get why people want to jump from Falcon but it still seems to me that Origin is the farthest along the path to commercialization. Whether it will stay that way I don’t know. If the Kyalla had flowed good numbers last fall and we were working on new wells this year I think most would be fairly happy. I don’t have the technical know how to tell you if they screwed that well up but I assume Halliburton knows what it’s doing? My biggest complaint is everything seems to be done in a linear fashion here. Why can’t we drill 10 different wells at the same time??
EMPIRE ENERGY STEPPING ON THE GAS WITH BEETALOO EXPANSION
Beetaloo Basin gas explorer Empire Energy Group, has strengthened its position as a serious player in the Territory’s on shore gas industry.