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Big boy pants…..too funny. Same crowd of jokers pumping this stock forever. If I had a $ for every word WW has pushed out about FOG on this board I would be as rich as Poods. : )
The reality is that going in at 5% or 22% might affect our sale price but it has nothing to do with our current share price. Tamboran are in the crapper too at 16 cent Australian and they picked up 50% of our 17.5%. theses next 6 wells sound like they are going to be the most expensive wells ever drilled in Australian history let alone the Beetaloo so being at 5% will have saved a lot of dilution whether you like POQ or not. It might reduce the final sale price but I'll bet it's likely to end up being a similar figure for us all at the end of the day. Like 500m offer at 1bn shares issued vs 1bn offered at 2bn shares issued. I know we keep saying it....wait till the next well. But let's face it all wells up till now have drilled and managed by numpties. We now have a crack team who have drilled a successful well albeit a shorty. It's enough to put us on the map but until we drill at least 6 wells in a row with decent flow rates that hold over 90 and 120 days no one is putting a decent offer in. The positives are the flow rates off the shorty were great, the fracking experts want in and bought equity and that is massive as they know rock, and the rig company also bought in for equity which is great and we have a decent team at the helm so while the share price is currently crap (and to be fair that's understandable) things will turn pretty quick if the next 6 wells stand up the geology. And still we wait for the bus to come.
Tda4falcon: Wise words to this board - I only wish some on this board would read and understand!! Some need to put on their big boy pants and deal in the realities of Falcon or sell and move on to their more perfect investment.
I'm not ecstatic about our current situation but it is what it is so I either accept it and change my expectations or sell and move on. Pretty simple really. Whining and crying about an investment doesn't help anything or anybody.
Too late for that. We ride that horse that brought us. Negative chatter does nothing but focus on the negative. When an offer comes, you can bash/cry/cheer/celebrate/ect. We all will react differently given the share price offered, and how we are all positioned. This constant "remove POQ" sentiment won't happen. Smile, and look forward to your return on investment.
The salary of execs is part of this game and was always on show. Ive seen many a company fail that paid its execs to the end. As sour as it might become, you have to suck it up if you want this type of investment opportunity to exist in the first place
I propose we replace POQ with an ATM that dispenses FOG shares. It would cost way less than the $500K we pay him annually while getting the same result.
Dear Mister Smallfish I apologize in advance I use the filter
Thanks smallfish -- but I am only expecting just enough gas to light my cigar in the next year or two -- while Tamboran gets diluted to around 3 billion shares!! Therefore -- I couldn't give a dam about how many million years it takes to drill the remaining 3.5 million acres.
Newtofo. Great job on the volumes, how many years do you think it will take to drill 3.5 million acres? 1 million? 51,000? How will the value of the gas vary over the forward life of the investment?
Appreciate the replies guys! None of us have all the information we need at this point to make an accurate call but glad to get your ideas.
Newtofo: If these next two 3K horizontals live up to expectations they will come online at about 18-19 mmcf/d. So those two wells are going to take up most of that 40 mmcf/d contract. These will typically decline over the first 6-9(?) months to the point that a third will could be drilled to backfill the contract. After that there will be no additional pipeline capacity for add'l Tamboran gas. If that is the case, then I believeTamboran will be cutting back on drilling until the gas can be sold. Maybe Tamboran will in time give us their updated plans to address this shortage of capacity. I don't believe the next 4 3km wells will be drilled until there is a place to sell the gas - that's a lot of money tied up to wait two, three or more years to begin production. Also, not an engineer, but I don't believe Tamboran would be fracking these wells if they cannot be flared/produced.
Another option I have heard is that there is a possibility that Falcon could be merged into Tamboran. I'm not sure what I think about that, but I it's something that could pop up.
Correction on my estimate of 12 TCF of gas net to Falcon from the one million acre dark blue CORE area. After redoing the numbers it looks more like 10TCF of gas to Falcon's side of the equation -- my bad. Not sure exactly what the Falcon's share of the remaining 3.5 million acres would be, but given what we know from the Amungee H1 -- I think it is very reasonable to expect that area would hold another 12 TCF to Falcon's side of the ledger.
Correction on the numbers for the 51,000 acre Postage Stamp is: – 136 wells X 18 BCF EUR = 2.44 TCF for the 51,000 acre zone. if we increase the acreage by adding on the other DSU (which is the 21,000 acres around the SSH1 drill site) -- we get to a larger 72,000 acres for a potential of 192 wells at 18 BCF = 3.45 TCF.
That’s a massive 48 TCF over the 1 million acres. So a net 10 TCF to Falcon over the dark blue CORE area.
WetWater, just a minor correction, that I believe is correct.
Tamboran is planning for two 3km horizontals at the new SSH2/H3 site for later this year -- and then four more in 2025 for a total of six 3km horizontals before the end of 2025. This will be six new wells that will be required for the 40mm proposed flow rate going to the Amadeus pipeline in 2026. There could be a seventh drilled in 2027 to keep the production running at 40 mm cu.ft per day when the natural decline rate is taken into account. That could potentially lead to very little additional drilling after 2026 by Tamboran -- until the big new pipeline by APA to the East Coast is completed by 2028??
However, I believe that scenario may not be taking into account what the next two full length horizontals are going to indicate from that tiny -- almost Postage Stamp area of 51,000 acres -- that POQ has very wisely decided to let Tamboran and Sheffield spend $400 to $500 million Aussie dollars proving up!!
A very quick off the cuff calculation (based on 136 full length horizontals, that Riddle said could be drilled on that Postage Stamp 51,000 acres-- indicates that there is a potential of 3 TCF of recoverable gas in just that 51,000 acres alone. This would seem to indicate that there are approximately another 20 Postage Stamps in just the dark blue CORE one million acres alone!!
Those kinds of numbers would seem to indicate a massive 60 TCF of recoverable gas in just the CORE area -- with a potential of 12 TCF to Falcon's side of the equation.
Given what is indicated for recoverable gas in just the dark blue CORE area of one million acres -- I think that (with the slowdown in any new giant shale gas fields in the US, along with the bigger companies like Chesapeake buying Southwestern -- just to get added volumes and new drilling locations), -- that there is some possibility of serious interest from the US after the next two horizontals?? I think it is very possible that we might get companies like EQT, Chesapeake, or any number of mid-sized shale gas explorers that could step in and take Falcon out at a ridiculously low 50 cents per share -- after the next two horizontals?
Even though the big new APA pipeline back East hasn't even gotten to the first stage and will be at least 3 to 4 years away -- I am wondering whether big players like EQT, or Chesapeake -- or possibly others in the US that would buy out Falcon's very realistic potential of 12 TCF in the CORE area (and potentially another 12 TCF in the remaining 3 million acres), would look very closely at joining up with Tamboran and Sheffield to build a much shorter, less expensive and faster to complete -- 600 km smaller pipeline to Darwin that could feed gas into either the Inpex LNG system, into Santo's LNG plant, or alternately into a third LNG train that Riddle wants to build?? With Sheffield fully involved -- the success of the next two horizontals will be big news in Texas.
Gonoles,
To me that's our best hope. That BS tries to come in w a lowball offer and it sparks several interested parties to do their own bidding. There are probably several people saying "hey let's let TMB and BS prove up these wells and we'll sit and wait". That's why I think when his lowball offer comes in- if it's the only one, the shareholders will jump on it. A double at this time would look pretty good. While 3-5 more years isn't the end of the world, when I look at the oppty cost of the cash I've had tied up for 7,8,9 years....
Yeah I'd be surprised if it hadn't been bought by Christmas 2025 if the two wells this year are decent.
I think BS will buy it way before then to keep his price down. He knows the prize and I'm sure he has the funding to do it. If POQ is busy talking on the side to other suitors which we won't find out unless someone else jumps in -- either way I see this stock going up over time. Been in for almost 20 years -- so I can still wait, but think it will come sooner than later to keep BS price down.
Wet, unfortunately, I and a few others have been saying this for awhile. There is no reason for anyone to buy FOG anytime soon. I also think that 27-28 is probably on the early side. There is no reason to buy FOG until it is producing revenue. We can sit here and say someone may want a piece of it just to control the gas down the line and is willing to pay for it now. Maybe that will happen- but I doubt it. Add into the issues that in 4-5 years the social and political landscape may be entirely different. When that lowball offer from BS comes in (if it does), it's going to look very good to long term shareholders. I said that before the results of the last well came in that I was hoping to cut my holdings by about half- good or bad. I haven't, because the stock price has been so pitiful. I wish I had sold at $.16 obviously but hindsight and all that. As someone pointed out, it's true I don't know who may be interested- that maybe there are many. Given the stock price and the volume however, I doubt many believe that.
Golones: The problem I foresee with the Beetaloo is that we are going to be stuck in a holding pattern before we will receive an offer many of us will find acceptable. It's a bit of the 'cart before the horse' issue. Tamboran's production date is early 2026 - that is soon after the first two pilot wells are to be drilled. That gas will be going into the Amadeus pipeline and if memory serves me well, Tamboran has contracted a 40 mmcf/d take or pay contract with the pipeline. Doing an AI search on Amadeus Pipeline indicates that currently there is no excess capacity - I assume 'no excess capacity' allows for the contracted 40 mmcf/d but the question is just how much excess capacity above the 40 mmcf/d might there be? The pipeline's total capacity is only about 165 - 175 mmcf/d which isn't that large. The point I am getting at is that Tamboran will likely be holding up on drilling the SS5H, SS6H, SS7H wells. The SS4H will likely be drilled sometime in 2026 to backfill Tamboran's 40 mmcf/d contract as there will be a typical Marcellus decline curve over the first 6-8 months of these first two wells. Tamboran doesn't have the funds available nor the inclination to punch holes in the ground without a market for its production. Tamboran is correctly informing the market of first production in 2026, but in typical Tamboran fashion, they fail to tell the market the 'rest of the story'.
With all this said, any 2025/2026 offers for Falcon will be based on the next two-three wells and not the full 6 well pilot program. That's not saying an offer can't come at any time, but IMO, the big guys are not buying into something that is not well proven - they would rather pay-up when the field is better proven/understood.
From my understanding, the new APA proposed pipeline hasn't even begun permitting. Building a large enough capacity line to handle even the next 10 years production is going to be a major project and cost billions of dollars. We could be looking at 2027 - 2028 before that might be completed.
Bottom line is that to receive the price many of us want, we might be looking at a lot more patience - what's three more years at this point - assuming I'm still around :^) IMO, Falcon owes it to its stockholders to shoot straight on the current timeline on a proposed sale. No one can predict with certainty when a legit offer might be received, but I believe if we stockholders might potentially be looking at 2027 or 2028 before a sale, then the stockholders need to understand this as a possibility.
GLA
Although I firmly believe the Sheffield family is putting a lot of money and effort to control everything. I also feel that others are looking at what is happening in the area, and when push comes to shove -- others may look at pulling the trigger too.
This is the time to just sit back and let the cards play out. Long term -- someone will see the value as the next two wells start to prove out the value.
Although I have earned my money from oil and gas all my life, FOG is a very bitter lesson for me that has lasted an infinitely long ~15 years since entering the Beetaloo and will last a few more years. I estimate that a total of $1 billion will be invested before the first molecule of natural gas is sold from the beetaloo. This long pay back time is a torture for most of us here. At the moment I see the risk that Mr. Philip O'Quigley jeopardizes the long-awaited financial success for the long time share holders by his inactivity, not communicating the strategy for monetizing and perhaps allowing BS (who is a great oil man) to rip off long term FOG`s share holders.
....
The Beetaloo is in north-central Australia and underlies some 7 million acres of outback flanked on its northwestern corner by Daly Waters, a town on Australia’s 1,900-mile Highway 1 that stretches from Darwin to Adelaide.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources’ Beetaloo Basin leasehold includes its and prior explorers’ appraisal wells. (Source: Tamboran Resources)
In several decades of exploration, including in 2015 by the late Chesapeake Energy Corp. co-founder Aubrey McClendon, explorers have invested more than $600 million in testing the Beetaloo’s Middle Velkerri B Formation that Tamboran has found to resemble the Marcellus Shale in its geophysical properties, according to the S-1.
The target is at more than 6,000 feet.
Tamboran has drilled six appraisal wells in the leasehold, including two early wells with a partner at the time, Santos Ltd.
Tamboran currently owns the six wells. They are shut in, awaiting gathering to connect to big pipe that travels alongside Highway 1, operated by Australia-based pipe and electric power company APA Group (not related to U.S.-based APA Corp., the owner of Apache Corp.).
Tamboran expects takeaway will be up to 2 Bcf/d from its leasehold upon full field development.
Including tests by others, 21 wells have been drilled through the Middle Velkerri Formation, according to the S-1.
In addition to Stoneburner, board members include Fred Barrett, co-founder and former CEO of U.S. tight-rock explorer Bill Barrett Corp.
Tamboran management includes Faron Thibodeaux, COO, who was Australia manager for Apache Corp. before Apache sold its Australian business in 2015.
Its CEO is Joel Riddle, who was previously with offshore explorer Cobalt International Energy.
Joint book-running managers for the IPO are BofA Securities, Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets. Co-managers are Johnson Rice & Co. and Piper Sandler.
Australia United States Marcellus Eagle Ford Haynesville
ASX: TBN
Tamboran Resources Ltd.
NYSE: PXD
Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
269.62 +38.2%
NYSE: XOM
Exxon Mobil Corp.
116 +10.55%
NYSE: LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.
21.64 +80.25%
NYSE: HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc.
38.47 +25.45%
Https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/us-shale-catters-ipo-australian-shale-explorer-nyse-209061
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources Corp. is majority owned by Permian wildcatter Bryan Sheffield and chaired by Haynesville and Eagle Ford discovery co-leader Stoneburner.
Nissa Darbonne
Oil and Gas Investor
Sat, 05/04/2024 - 02:08 PM
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources Corp. is majority owned by Permian wildcatter Bryan Sheffield and chaired by Haynesville and Eagle Ford discovery co-leader Stoneburner. (Source: Shutterstock.com, Tamboran)
U.S. shale-catters, chaired by the Haynesville and Eagle Ford shale discoveries’ co-leader Stoneburner, have filed an S-1 for an IPO of Australian shale-gas explorer Tamboran Resources Corp.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Stoneburner (Source: Tamboran)
The group plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange as TBN, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The S-1 did not include an estimate of the total funds to be raised or the price-per-share range.
Australia-listed Tamboran’s (ASX: TBN) largest shareholder is Bryan Sheffield, founder of Permian shale developer Parsley Energy Inc., which he sold to Pioneer Natural Resources in 2021 for $7.6 billion.
Pioneer was bought by Exxon Mobil Corp. last week for $59.5 billion in stock.
Stoneburner, a career geologist, co-led Petrohawk Energy Corp. in the early days of leasehold capture and delineating the shale-gas Haynesville play in northwestern Louisiana, beginning in late 2007.
In 2008, Petrohawk made the liquids-rich Eagle Ford discovery well.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Bryan Sheffield (Source: Hart Energy)
Upon selling Petrohawk to BHP Billiton in 2012 for $15.1 billion, Stoneburner was president of BHP’s new North American shale division.
In addition to Sheffield, Tamboran investors include leading U.S. shale pressure-pumper Liberty Energy Inc., which sent one of its frac spreads to complete the most recent well, Shenandoah South #1H, in December.
The well had a 30-day IP of 3.2 MMcf/d from a 1,644-foot section of lateral that was completed with 10 stages. The 60-day flow was 3.0 MMcf/d; the 90-day flow, 2.9 MMcf/d, according to the S-1.
Normalized for a 10,000-foot lateral, the 30-day flow is equivalent to 19.5 MMcf/d, Tamboran reported in the S-1.
Another investor, Helmerich & Payne Inc., a leading U.S. shale driller, drilled the well with one of its newest FlexRigs, which are operated onsite as well as remotely from H&P’s Tulsa, Okla., headquarters.
Resembles Marcellus
Sydney-based Tamboran holds 4.7 million contiguous gross acres in the targeted Beetaloo Basin; net, 1.9 million acres, according to the S-1.
Thank you Newtofo for the Infos!
Beetaloo, that is just a legal requirement that is in every financial Prospectus -- due to the fact that the funding agreement with the underwriters (some heavyweights with Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets) is only proposed right now!! I think that with these heavyweights taking up the underwriting on the NYSE -- the funding on the first stage anyway should go through in next few months.
Fortunately -- Falcon with it's current $20 million Aussie dollars ($12 million US) appears to be covered for their 5% share of the Full Pilot program -- with both Tamboran and Sheffield having to cover the remaining $195 million EACH in Aussie dollars.
Thank you Newtofo, quick question:
how do you rate this sentence?
"Additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all’"
???
After reading that Tamboran's share of the "Full" Pilot Production plan (six wells, 20 mile pipeline, and compressioin facility) could be as high as $250 million Aussie dollars -- POQ's corporate decision to reduce Falcon's exposure to only 5% -- (while we let Riddle and Sheffield prove up the Beetaloo) is looking much better!! The last two paragraphs below (from the Tamboran prospectus) indicates that Tamboran may have to go other routes (like handing more control to Sheffield etc) if all the funding required by Tamboran, with the new listing in the US, can't be raised??
"We estimate the capital required to deliver the first development phase to production will be approximately $125 million (A$195 million) to $165 million (A$250 million) net to Tamboran. We expect to spend approximately $70 million (A$105 million) to $80 million (A$125 million) net on drilling and completion costs, $10 million (A$15 million) to $13 million (A$20 million) net on costs related to the development of the compression facility, $23 million (A$35 million) to $30 million (A$45 million) net on related pad construction and gathering infrastructure and $26 million (A$40 million) to $40 million (A$60 million) net on transaction and general and administrative expenses".
"We estimate that we will need to invest approximately $57 million for fiscal year 2024 in order to progress our development plans. We expect the proceeds of this offering, together with our existing cash on hand (which is $33 million), to be sufficient to fund our planned drilling and testing program at least through the end of fiscal year 2025".
"However, we may require significant additional funds earlier than we currently expect in order to execute our strategy as planned. We may seek additional funding through asset sales or public or private financings. Additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all".