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filter button is a blessing
do wt you like bro, all the best with your ”investment” !
edit
"My questions that need answering are ,
1) Is there a need for anymore cash needed before March 2021? or even at all until BALA financing?
2) When will the pilot plant be production ready to to produce 1500t/year
3) when is the BFS due for completion for phase I
Someone can find that for me, it will be really appreciated and allay my concerns
"My first questions that need answering are when will the pilot plant be production ready to to produce 1500t/year and then find out when the BFS for phase I is due"
Someone can find that for me, it will be really appreciated and allay my concerns
TRA1,
i think I will stay invested(small) here a bit longer.
I do not want to miss your two lines of valuable contributions upto now.
You keep dreaming of 171p
hello LL,
"You might be Mr. Bridgen divorced wife for what I know..lol" - LOL ok that made me chuckle
I do not take any offence here unless I am abused directly. Disagreeing is all part of the discussion.
With regards thrusting or mistrusting is my perception of the CEO..ie trust in his ability to deliver and meet timescales .
I have not been impressed with the way the financing has been dealt with upto now. I am sure cash was already tight months before Covid. If you read this chat from March to June 2020, you will read a small group of us discussed these issues at the time.
Also rightly or wrongly I have been influenced by comments made about him whilst his time at HMB. Poor communications on progress , no timescales, , share dilutions, share price erosion is what I have already last week. But could just be disgruntled shareholders who may have lost money I assume. So i need to be careful what I believe too. My fear it is repeated here too. Delays or missed timelines eats into cash and erodes shareholder value. Delivery of huge projects requires the top Management. You find many projects do not reach fruition to anything close initial expectations .
My first questions that need answering are when will the pilot plant be production ready to to produce 1500t/year and then find out when the BFS for phase I is due. ( i think many here did not know that phase 2 will require a further study)
BALA is not even in my thinking yet. It is a huge undertaking. If I start dreaming of that , I may be disappointed. Small steps
if I discredit a ceo/company I can produce multiple links at same time even before I’m asked
Hazbeen
I am listening and waiting for evidences discrediting FAR ceo, but without wanting to jump to conclusion, the very fact that you make accusations first and then need to do some research to see if what you claim is true, doesn't look good for your reputation Sir.
And yet again seems you have not learn the lesson....in your last posts you say...
"You are right Hambledom mining did reach production, but at what expense. The devil is in the detail"
referring to the period Mr. Bridgen was in charge of Hambledon .
The "devil is in the details" talks... at the moment just best describe what character you hare Hazbeen.
You claim to be invested in FAR but take every opportunity to come on this board and spread false information and negativity.
Are you bitter because unfortunately you bough FAR, full of expectation at much higher price?
Is it not this the reason why you are so negative?
Because my friend if that is not the case, I have to conclude that you are not invested here and your intentions are to deliberately discredit this company and Mr. Bridge, for some strange reasons.
You might be Mr. Bridgen divorced wife for what I know..lol
Please don't stop now with your researches, I am sure a bit more negativity from you, won't make you sell you presumed FAR shares. Awaiting evidence that discredit Mr. Bridgen ....
Hoping that nobody will take this to FAR attention for defamation in public domain.
Morning Hazbeen,
No offence intended by the discredit remark to you, it is just that LL has a very valid point in asking for supportive evidence on what you said about, for instance, the directors reputation. That is quite serious if you ask me and I think your statements were damaging for the directors and or anyone reading that as investors or potential investors.
I think if you could indeed reply to his questions with some links we could all put that to rest.
Cheers
” ..I need to re-think if I want to remain invested here or wait 6 months.”
please do not wait
Morning Mr S
I do not think it discredits me. It just means I have a different opinion or view. We are allowed to have contrarian views.
I guess it just comes to how you discuss them. I will try not be so negative in the future but I must be allowed to be honest.
I am also researching more again having stopped looking after Covid put a spanner the world.
Hambledon Mining has changed names twice since NB stepped down...so just left reading historical info if one can find it.
LL,
Great analysis and work there. Thanks for spending the time on this.
I am at work today but will try to answer some of your questions this weekend.
You are right Hambledom mining did reach production, but at what expense. The devil is in the detail, and I be honest, I did not know about the CEO's position there until recently. So I have been reading up on that too. From my initial readings, it does not read well. But I do not want to dwell on this as it has a negative view on my investment here.
If I have little faith in the CEO, I am now asking myself whether I need to re-think if I want to remain invested here or wait 6 months.
Good morning all.
LuckyLuciano, I must say your post asking for links to support the negative statements by Hazbeen is a very justifiable one. I think it's ok to criticize something but evidence to support an accusation, let's say of incompetence, needs to be backed up by proper evidence by the accusing party. You have put a few questions to Hazbeen and I am now waiting for him to reply accordingly with the evidence required. Otherwise it would, in my view, discredit him greatly.
Fair points
ST
GM. sounds good, fits with the chart, weekly close above 11.5 will trigger the move imho__https://invst.ly/sk8pt
Your numbers look good. How they choose to finance will have an effect too. Looking for 30p to slice then leave the rest for £1+ in 2-3 years time. GLA
...As you can understand there are many variables to factor in, including the fact that I am not expert and have no time to go trough all the correct procedures, considering that in the end $2 in vanadium price difference would completely transform the end result of any calculation...for the same reason I am not taking out from total revenue the initial capita employed to develop the mine or some £75 millions. As I said only £1 per kg V price increase would bring extra £128 millions profit so better simplify everything for what is worth....
What about sp target?
Another quick and simple calculation. Share prices are compared among other factors on PE (price earning ratios)
The number of PE is simply a multiple of a company net profit. A company with a PE of say...1 means that that company every year makes a profit as big as its market value, meaning that if I was to buy that company every year I would have 100% return.
In the mining sector the PE varies between companies depending of many factors, including geographical and political risks associated with the operation, type of commodities and trends, debit attached to any specific company and so on.
So again to simplify thing lets take in consideration a PE multiple of 15. By multiplying one year net profit 15 times we get to the market capital of a potential FAR mining Bala in to the future...
The sum gives £335millions is I got this right?
Now to get to the sp target we should simply divide the £335 millions by the number of shares issued and here things start to get even more difficult.
I am assuming that initial $101 million finance for phase one is totally funded with borrowing to simplify calculations. This means that at 7% charge there would be some £5.5 million going out in financial expenses.
So a NPV of £335 millions divided current number of shares gives exactly £1 sp.
Now I apologise for spelling mistakes and approximations in may areas of my reasoning, I am sure I got many things wrong.. for what is worth at least I tried to explain and go in more details than VSA report.
Is it realistic FAR at £1 for phase one development?
Let me tell you one more thing about this.
Miners sp price tend to rise steeply in predevelopment phases often exceeding their true value. This is because news flow like PFS, explorations, financing etc are al catalyst that push the sp higher .
Funny enough during development the sp of miner tend to decrease because in this phase there are attached risks more than expectations. Many things can go wrong during development even for the best companies and teams.
During production when the money start to come in the sp of miners stabilise for a longer period.....That is when FAR sp could be £1.
Good night
So my calculation (and please any polite comment is welcomed)
I am taking in consideration only the 23 million ore reserve we know and only at phase one production rate.
Right .....Bala Phase one investment $101 million . These are money going out...add to that all the money spent to produce the staff.
So 1 million tones ore per year gives a life on mine of 23 years
production of 5,600 tones at £10 per Kg. is £ 56 millions revenue x year
(note that life of mine is 23 years and price of vanadium is at historical lows, implying that with current trend in vanadium technologies is likely that revenue will be much higher but...)
So money coming in for the life of the project is 23 years by £56 millions equal £ 1.288 billions.
Now we need to take out money going out for development and production (capex and opex)
The VSA report state that cash cost of production would be $2.3 per lb or £4 per Kg.
This would mean that the Bala mine will operate at 60% profit rate but I don't believe that.
There is also a by-product production to factor in, but I am not sure when this will kick in and what profit will it bring, so I have left it out.
So let simplify and calculate a 40% net profit on total revenue of £ 1.288 billions and we come up with £515 million NPS from phase one development.
Hi Hazbeen
right I read the VSA research and although one can't disagree with them, the fact that their estimate on NPV and price target lacks a time frame , means that the paper used to write the research would be better used in a toilet.
But before I venture to express my opinion on numbers and price targets, I like to make make few comments on one of your posts, which opens full on with negativities on FAR.
You mentioned that there somewhere there was a time scale plan for the development of Bala and that it as not happened.
Please any link info were this is stated by the company? (if is to do with covid related delay please don't bother everybody knows that already)
You mentioned that beside delays in time scale probably Bala will not be developed at all. Wow...any concrete evidence in this regard? (please if is something to do with Nick divorce.. don't bother)
You state that you have deep mistrust of the Ceo...his past track record in Kazakhstan ect etc...any concrete evidence on that?
But please I need documented specific facts, not just voices like he left Hambledon mining, I need to know why and have concrete prove that that he was incompetent.
Because from my little research I done on that front I managed to find out that he was the founder of that once exploration mine and he managed to lead the company all the way to commissioning and gold production. Pl let me know more.
Lastly regard you negativity the right team in place....been the wrong one. Now I am not disputing the fact that you are able to judge an value if a mining team is the right one or not. What is difficult to comprehend is how can you compare a team or workers trained to carry out the current operation at FAR, with a future team that will be needed to build the mine infrastructure, mine the ground and produce the metal? Of course these are two completely different operations and of course there will be the need to employ new peoples.
Now the VSA research:
On NPV (net present value)
There is a formula to calculate NPV but to simplify everything let say that NPV is the sum of the profit an operation will produce in a given time frame. In other words total money coming in less total money going out (simple version)
As you can imagine been the time frame a very long period there are many variables that inevitably will result in almost all calculating of NPV inaccurate. Never than less when deciding if to go ahead with a project or and investment, there has to be a benchmark a starting point of reference to compare different kind of investible projects, to decide which is more profitable. (sorry to drag on)
Sorry if this seems a stupid question, S.A. stands for South Africa yes?
Hazbeen, thanks and I agree that is an issue, which the power lines should address in my view. I can only picture the precarious temporary situation they had to deal with till this power line is in place. I have electrical engineering background and can just picture the situation where higher consumption levels can place on underpowered systems can case to the network. The need of more powerful substations and the need to replace current low grade power lines for higher capacity ones. I assume the work being carried out at the moment will definitely meet the needs on the consumer side. It's in the Kazakhstan government as well for the mine to be producing so I expect all to be concluded soon. What is 5 to 6 months in the grand scheme?
As per the directors not responding to emails it all depends on the number of small investors, etc, send them emails and assuming covid might have made things worse. I sent a couple of emails to AVACTA and not a single reply to date, for instance, go and figure. I know they replied to someone on Avacta's BB ( so they said). :0)
The same happened on BPC where someone tried to call their head office in the Isle of Man and someone answered and they didn't know who or what BPC was! Now that's worrying. AIM shares to you.
If anyone is happy to send me a copy of the email they sent to FAR I am happy to email it on my side to see if I get a reply.
I am a late arrival here so benefited of a lower entry point and am happy to hold and ride the ups and downs.
Cheers
ST
Eyeguy
I have already replied to you below :-)
Hazbeen- yes or no. Do you own any shares here?
MR SpaceT,
Regarding production suffering from power outages . funny you mention that . I have been reading through the RNS’, and I realised there are risks of increased power outages the coming months because of the potential bad winter weather . I say potential as this is unpredictable .
What has surprised is that nothing was mentioned about this in any of the operational updates in early 2020 when these problems were encountered in Q4 of 2019.
I then annoyingly found a couple of small lines in the June Results !
In the fourth quarter of 2019 we experienced significant outages of power due to heavy winter conditions affecting the existing line which resulted in high costs for back-up power generation and reduced production.
Frankly the new power line cannot come quick enough .
Thanks MR S appreciate that .
I guess I was fed up when the herd arrived .
I have been here pre Covid with just a handful of us discussing the Co
Well it looks to be settling down as genuine investors are appearing .
I like to hear more detailed update and timelines on progress on the important issues regarding the BFS and upgrading of the plant .so I am digging deeper into the info we have . At least we all know the power line should be ready by April 2021.
Also previous poster tried very hard to communicate with Co several times and directly with BoD.
But never received a single acknowledgement or reply .
If I compare the CEO and BOD with one or two other miners I follow , this Co comes across very badly with no regard to shareholders .But I will give it another 6 months and see we are where we should be.
Haz
eua comes to mind when warrants were getting exercised around 3-4p if i remember correctly in Dec last year today around 30p