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Hazbeen,
I must admit I am starting to appreciate your critical eye here. I too hold shares here and will not sell after doing my research. I agree with your "conspiracy" on the 170ish target price in order to enable the offloading of shares. However, the mine's potential, in my view, warrants an investment here for the medium to long term.
The directors holdings' bodes well in my view, though limits the power of any future major institutional investors should the decide to buy in. Good or bad, there are two schools of thought here.
FAR is currently suffering from the power cuts to help it move on, which I believe should be resolved in the 1Q 2021. Plus the current global crisis all companies in the world are going through. Rough seas indeed.
However, despite what you say about the directors I trust they understand what they own here and the potential this mine has and I am sure they want to make serious money out of it, like all those invested here.
I think if you can offer a more balanced critical view, which I have sensed lately that you have, your comments will be valuable for us all. Let's not be blind but also not over the top.
Thanks
ST
LL,
No offence taken . Never seriously looked at Bush minerals either .
Hopefully some of your questions are answered.
Ok Hazbeen maybe is me paranoid with claiming that you belong to the Bush brigade, my apologies try to understand my feeling when some came to this board of recent ...Alfacomp and Libero to name few.
Nice reply will get back to you tomorrow as I am off to work right now.
Thanks for the VSA report I was wondering what it was, possibly have not read it yet.
Bye
Eyeguy
It is not that I do not want the share to go up.
You are right it may still go up, nothing I can say makes a difference anyway
But I like to discuss the fundamentals of the Co and progress or lack of it and the risks involved .
Just because I am invested , I do not get emotionally attached to the Co or valuations . The story can change positive or negatively and I change my position on my investment accordingly .
Also
If not already I urge you to read the final results . It has plenty of detail about questions that you may have and certainly I had
Final results
Mon, 29th Jun 2020 07:00
Also the VSA note , if you have not read it , but this paid research by the Co
which the Crux interview pulled him up on ..
http://www.ferro-alloy.com/en/news/VSA%20Research%2012%20May%202020.pdf
I am not good with figures, but you seem to have a better understanding than me .
Btw I have no twiiter account either , glad I don’t as I would be annoying as I do you guys here .. sorry
Hi LL,
Firstly let me say , I do believe the asset and resource is world class but I strongly believe the management will fall short and will not deliver the Bala project on timescales expected or at all .But that does not mean there is no money to be made here. I maintain selling the asset is their best hope.
I have a strong mistrust of the CEO. His track record in other projects in Kaz justifies my reasons . He does have the right team in place either.
I continue to hold my shares but no intention of buying more yet as there is time to see how the next 6 months pan out .
If you have time there are posts from a poster name Redroy, who I respect a lot as his balanced views and research was appreciated .i am not sure if he is still invested here though .
VSA broker note mentions that it includes 45m share dilution for the $5m required to ramp up the pilot plant . The big share price valuations tend to achieved once debt has been paid down and Co is producing nameplate and profitability as expected . If you follow miners in early stage to production , you will realise it takes years to achieve valuations to anywhere broker targets , many never get close . So I always take that with a pinch of salt .
I maintain more cash is required for the BFS and electric furnace. I think it is too early to get an off take agreement at present .
From the final results in June
The Company is currently carrying out an expansion project which will lower the average cost of production and as part of this project, will be connecting to a larger capacity and more reliable power supply as described above. Although a substantial part of this expansion has already been completed, the plans include completion of the link to the adjacent high voltage powerline and the installation of an electric arc furnace. The full benefits of the expansion depend upon the raising of sufficient finance and the successful completion of these projects.
The BFS/DFS study is only planned for phase I of the project , so any valuations stated for the whole Phase I and 2 project will be years away . Covid has delayed the study and ramp as you know .
Do not expect the BFS study for phase I this year. Q1 2021 at the earliest .
Balasausqandiq
In parallel with existing operations discussed above, and using the resulting cash flows, the Company plans to continue development of the Balasausqandiq vanadium deposit. The western bankable feasibility study has been initiated with leading consulting companies in the industry. The current study is for Phase 1 of the development plan, including construction of a process facility to treat one million tonnes per year of ore, producing some 5,600 tonnes per year of vanadium pentoxide, plus by-products which are likely to amount to around a third of revenue. A subsequent expansion is planned which will increase vanadium pentoxide production to 22,400 tonnes per year, plus by-products, but this will not be included in the currently
What are the problems at Bushveld Minerals that some of its shareholders are so determined to post repeatedly and negatively on the FAR board?
By the way how is it going your investment in Bushveld Mineral?
Maybe that is where Twitter theory comes from right?
My world please someone save them poor souls invested in bush...now if there is no ramping going on in that board where else.
Today I ventured to say that technically there will be some resistance on the share price and everyone was against me.
Some resolved even to insults lol.
As soon as the sp drift a bit you get out the usual suspects with links and ramping .... what have we come to.
agree Tra1. Hazbeen- you don't like the share but you cannot predict a future event. The fact that you do not want the shares to go up does not mean that they wont.
Had the same on BZT when I bought a lot of shares at 0.11p. I was warned of the doom and gloom, told of shareholders action groups, warned there would be delays etc. 3 weeks later the shares up 4 fold, now 3 fold and the people making such negative predictions don't seem to post any more. funny that.
Hazbeen
you might be right ...one more reason to buy this shares. If Citadel had to resource to such conspiracy theory to unload their share now, when they could have done it at 70/60/50p etc it goes a long way to show how incompetent they are (not that I endorse you paranoid theory mate).
Couldn't it be that maybe after 8th October positive production RNS update, news has circulated around and it hit Tweeter as well?
I am saying so because honestly I don't even have Tweeter and yet I find my self here invested never than less.
simple, you do not like this share, you can move on, and leave us in our blessed ignorance -;) exactly like the guys who provided ”balanced view on ncyt at 90p and toople at 08. and vela at 036. now watch from a distance this one shooting over 20 soon GLA
I am cynical here , but has no-one thought how come a large twitter brigade has turned up ramping the share price and Co the same time Citadel wanted to sell 41m shares onto the market .That just stinks to me .
I think Citadel have been trying to sell for a long time but could not find a market or buyer for the stock .probably why he has fallen so low.
I will move on from this and talk about the project
Hazbeen please do I very welcome more knowledge and researches.
...one last thing
about profitability of bala mine in coming up with 208p potential sp I mention 12.5%.
Obviously its a joke, mining in Kazakhstan produce huge returns, for example Kaz Minerals copper producer, has margins of 56% gross and operating profit at some 30%.
LL
That is more like it
No ramping there but valid discussion points
I will reply later . I agree with most of what you write
I have no agenda , you will see that eventually
Company presentation:
Only the first (of five known) ore-body has been explored to full depth, giving a reserve of 23 million tonnes, it is considered likely that after full exploration of the other ore-bodies, the Balasausqandiq deposit will be large enough to support an operation of up to 10 Mtpa of ore, producing about 55,000 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide per year. However, to avoid oversupply to the market, engineering risks, and to reduce shareholder dilution, FAR plans to develop more slowly, in steps that are more in tune with both the natural expansion of the vanadium market and at a pace which allows the later stages to be substantially financed from earnings of the earlier stages. This relatively slow development plan can be revised if there is a significant increase in demand, for example, for vanadium flow batteries for energy storage.
================================================
Now just a quick calculation of were does come from the 171p target price:
Potentially 55,000 tones of vanadium pentoxide per year at let say £10x Kg. gives £550 million annual revenue.
At 12.5% net profit makes some £68 million at a PE as low as 10 is a company with a market capital of £680 millions.
In case the operation is all financed by debits (which is not going to happen of course) still we have £680millions divided by current share issued equal a share price of 208 p.
You can imagine there are many variable to consider, most of all the price of vanadium and the fact that FAR will produce not only vanadium pentoxide but also much higher priced ferro vanadium and vanadium for batteries.
Anyway this is ramping and I try not to do that, future projections may or may not happen.
The two unconfutable facts that make me like FAR are production increasing almost 10 folds, cheep if not the cheapest mining project, and I am sure potential financiers will like that too.
You shouldn't trust anyone that is paid to post
Usually I would keep and idiot like Haz to balance views on a share but after reading hundreds of the guys relentless deramping posts I had to filter him as he definitely has an agenda and it certainly isn't to see FAR go far. GLA
Right although 171p broker target seems a fantasy, if is considered in a specific time frame could as well be achieved.
I am not going to calculate potential profit target and PE once Bala will be up and running....maybe latter, but I agree with you some wild claims without any calculated explanation on how and when are just that....wild.
Right rising the holly cash....how can this happen?!
For start it seems to me that there are out there traded company that command some billions shares in issue. If FAR was a 1 billion shares company right now, it would have not just the cash that YOU CLAIM are needed for for finalising production ramp up etc, but also the cash to complete phase 1 mining of bala.
...and now in you mind pops up the word dilution right Haz ?
It seems that you are using this word to scaremonger people, hoping that some don't know its meaning.
So what it means dilution ?
First of all if FAR was to rise 700 million shares tomorrow to get to 1 billion, is crucial to know at what price those shares would be issued, dilution of investor holding would happen only if those shares were to be issued lower than current price right? Is this going to happen? Citadel is moving on and the sp is rising, many other news catalyst point to sp increase (note I am not talking about sp targets).
That is one way to rise cash. Another is issuing bonds or borrowing money directly from banks. this investments will command a coupons that as long as is covered by cash flow will warrant the development of Bala mine, possibly the way is going to happen is a mix of those two.
You Haz insist on this question of Director rising cash but all info. point to the fact that they don't need to rise any cash at all.
Intention are the finish improvement work out of cash flow as stated by latest RNS, which bring me to the conclusion that ...again you are in this board only to deramp with the hope to redirect some investor to the other side....you know what I neannnnn
Not very successful according to current sp movement
Yes I popped up as new RNS has popped up which is expected with the volume lately
But I am expecting a new holding RNS as well
Not negative as such , just stating the facts and trying to understand the BoD strategy here of
Raising cash and why not the whole amount needed in one go.
Let’s hear you ramping theory , all part of the discussion
For the record my problem is with the Twitter brigade ramping without debate or discussion
And just 171p broker targets as their only reason to buy .
If there have an alternative to dilution or debt then that would be much better for shareholders I would expect
Hazbeen
why you ask me I am not the company director, and although I have my theories right now can't be bothered to divulge it including the fact that I could be called ramper by you, (not that I care much but..)
You seems to pop up on this board every time there is a positive new/momentum and I would venture to say that your account exist exclusively to deramp other shares to the benefit of the competition ....you know what I meannnn.
Anyway please keep going I will be using you fluteless posts on here as a contrarian signal to top up. Thank you.
Hazbeen
Your BYE BYE didn't last long.
Apologies fat fingers on the phone , retyped it better I hope
luckyL
So news out . So it was Citadel as I said earlier .
The directors own nearly 43.2% of the company, with Nicholas Bridgen owning 20.7% and Andrey Kuznetsov 22.4%. The other major shareholders are Citadel Equity Fund with 13.4% and AM2 (Bermuda) Ltd with 4.99%. These shareholders maintained their stake at the time of the flotation.
So once citadel sell out completely which is now on the cards , no major institutional holders left ... hmmm
I think I understand why there has bee drip fund raisings via dilution and also by debt bonds now - since directors are only
Major shareholders left and the CEO needs to sell at least 30m+ shares, the last thing he would want to see is his holding diluted away so he would have to sell a lot more than he wishes to
Be interesting to see if another major holder has come on board as 41m shares cannot just be PIs can it ?
Also wonder what funding options he can now use to avoid further dilution ... which I see will be inevitable .
Btw I read I Twitter is on overdrive again with a 15p so the rampers can get out who are still holding .
A far drop from the 171p ramping earlier
luckyL
So news out . So it was Citadel as I said earlier .
The directors own nearly 43.2% of the company, with Nicholas Bridgen owning 20.7% and Andrey Kuznetsov 22.4%. The other major shareholders are Citadel Equity Fund with 13.4% and AM2 (Bermuda) Ltd with 4.99%. These shareholders maintained their stake at the time of the flotation.
So once citadel sell out completely which is now on the cards , no major institutional holders
I think I understand why there has bee drip fund raisings via dilution and also by debt bonds now - since directors are only
Major shareholders and the CEO needs to at least 30m+ shares, the last thing he would not see is his holding diluted away so he would have to sell a lot more he wishes to
Be interesting to see if another major holder has come on board as 41m shares cannot just be PIs can it ?
Also wonder what funding options he can now use to avoid further dilution ... which just see will be inevitable .
Btw I read I Twitter is on overdrive again with a 15p so the rampers can get out who are still holding .
A far drop from the 171p ramping earlier
Yes this share may not fly but to know that Citadel has reduce holdings from 13% to less than 5% is good news.
Less selling pressure going forward .....