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Why would they do a fundraise in q4 when the warrants are going to be converted in q4? Also there is a share right for vb to purchase after fesability. This is all @ 9p mind but is 6M$ coming in. My thoughts are of a fund raise next year after negotiations have been reached for the carbon black offtake. Would be supprised if the plant isn't profitable now, as long as pre purchased concentrates keep coming in & vanadium price stays stable, should generate a 40% margin I believe (that's from the May presentation).
Definite fund raise coming, my thought is in October.
They made a significant loss in 2022 on $6m turnover ($4m loss) with the expectation for an operational profit of 20%.
Unfortunately the pilot plant will never profitable, regardless of logistic costs having come down. Expect a significant discounted fund raise in the coming months.
I recall they talked about using it as an additive to making the tyre walls with, in place of if Carbon Black which is environmentally poor because of the burning process etc 🤞
I hope you're right! After some research, it seems to me the said grade of carbon can be substituted in tyres, as is already from recycled black plastics and tyres but the price isn't very high. I think 12% of a tyre can be made of recycled plastic rubbish, certainly the tread anyway.... Definatly something to ask at the agm.
NB - fcf calculation is based on FAR not being successful entering the tyre market. If this market were able to be penetrated then fcf would likely to be double.
I’ve looked at the financials in some detail and have come to the conclusion that based on current relevant commodity prices to FAR:
Phase 1 £75m fcf. With 40% of this being paid as dividends (£30m). Based on 1,000,000,000 shares outstanding this equates to 30p share price, providing a 10% div yield.
Phase 2 being x 4 so £300m fcf and £120m paid out in dividends. Share price being 120p.
This assumes that there are no further share issues apart from the dilution for the plant build. With phase 1 profits being used for the phase 2 build I can’t see the stock price rising substantially in the short term.
Seen it already;
https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/crude-oil-production
I suspect there is a lag between KAZ oil production & catalyst supply. There are currently power outage problems to get production back up to target from another recent downturn, am expecting things to be ok and like the Bridgen says, we should be earning some much needed cashflow and be able to obtain enough catalysts as they are spent. For what it's worth, I feel his 640k buy on the open market shows this is likely the case....
Https://1lo.co/ATDdf Investors Meet Video.
Spread is high due to the high volatility in the last couple of days (due to the buyer thus/fri), supposed to put traders off so the market makers don't lose money if the share drops as is procedure with a stock which has been trading sideways for some time.
Guess the speculator last week was counting on all the holders who lost money over the last few years & sold at a loss would be tempted back in straight after the first positive update. Not likely, I think we need to consolidate around 11.6 to be confident of higher prices from here, other than that it's just continuous bag holding in the hope of favourable financing terms for phase 1 next year. I expect can get libor+3% on some bonds from Kaz developement bank and Vision blue (along with the 6.7M 9p warrants) will do the equity portion above 10p (12.5?) which is why the Bridgen bought in a load @10p. If were really lucky the fesability study for phase 1 will show us extemely profitable.
We only need an equivalent aisc below $3.50 @ 7.50$ lb v205 for meaningful upside here on phase 1, thats a foreward pe of 2 after only the 9 & 12p investment rights.
Indeed, it's good to see some solid forward progress after the hiatus. The 8.5% spread isn't going to help and upward momentum for the moment but it's still a promising update.
Excellent to see such strong operational performance from Ferro-Alloy.
With all process upgrades now complete and in operation. And, with all the roasting equipment switching to natural liquid gas, rather than diesel, from Q3 2023. And, CEO Nick Bridgrns comments that "With the plant now operating in steady-state and additional concentrate supply contracts in place going into the second half of the year, we expect production to continue on this upward trajectory" I expect to see this increased production and reduced cost reflected in significantly increased FCF going forwards.
With the ongoing operations upgraded, stabilised and throwing off cash hopefully Ferro-Alloy can move forwards with a greater focus on develoemt of the Giant Balasausqandiq vanadium project.
Nice move today and this last week.
Valuation was hammered due to reduced revenue fron issues with delivery of reagents. Last update this had been overcome. Operations update expected soon. Hoping the positive price action hints towards a positive earning update
Not excited yet, also from a technical perspective, have just broken through the 50 week moving average and need to hold 11.6 to be confident of a trend reversal here imo. Wonder what was said in London this week?
I like the long garment analogy too - throne, glass of champagne, sell or hold longer as the only worry...!
Long garment is good too! 😊
Obv that’s long game 🤦♂️
Strategy is long garment here for me
Sitting happy - I have no concerns about 40p+ and then into far bigger share price territory.
Thanks, I probably bought your shares, aswell as a lot more.
I have a big Holding with Invinity, their market is growing rapidly and the batteries are becoming enormous, Vanadium is going to be needed in huge Volumes.
FAR will provide the cheapest Vanadium on the Market.
Decided to take my 7% profit here and run to the door. I might come back after the placing which I think they will definitely need soon.
Good luck guys !
Wouldn't think the Bridgen would have bought in a big chunk a few Months back if he foresaw a placing although the 10M$ operating profit is likely out of reach given the consolidation in vanadium prices & inflation of supplies etc. (broker says 5M$). Steppe Cement reported today and no mention of rail freight back logs so hopefully FAR are getting all the supplies needed too. Disappointing not to get a Monthly update yet so expect something is a miss, if they need money it's to finish the feasability study i'll bet! Still bag holding here but getting tired of the delusions of grandure from the board, missed targets and lack of profitability.
They raised USD10m last September, stated that they had USD 4m+ at bank at end 2022 and have since announced grant awards, plus have stated that operations are going much much better in 2023 than in 2022, so hopefully now cashflow positive, so a raise seems rather unlilely to me, but of course anything is possible!
I wonder if FAR is now profitable. Looking at ADVFN, post suggesting possible fund raise. Would be very disappointing if this was the case. Can’t be long now until a RNS release.