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Thanks and my pleasure.
The mental arithmetic was becoming too leborious so a spreadsheet was in order.
Personally I would now just be happy with the lower end valuation so I could wipe my debts and stick some away for the long term and stop checking this website 15 times a day (no offence to anyone, its an addiction)
Maybe lamtree will appear one day and cheer us all up again just before fireworks night!
Hi aandi, thanks for sharing. Your valuations sit around the same range as the ACF report, my own calculations, and many other investors calculations from this board and the telegram group. We have all been rather conservative and came to very similar valuations so that is a good indicator. Don't think we can all be wrong. Exciting times ahead! Cheers!
Great work aandi, previous valuations have IMO been very conservative looking forward to some stellar updates from the company over the next few months.
ACF weren’t keen to pay attention to
that elephant in the room either.
I haven't taken this into account no. But I am sure someone said that c1/c2 resources are usually required to be 40% accurate, so I take this to mean +/- 20%?
Basically I just ignored this elephant in the room for two reasons...
1 they have been exploring this area for a long time and the geology is known, there are other mines in the area, and we know that at w.k the actual recoveries seen came in much higher than the initial indicated/inferred resource. So yes it could be less, but including the remaining unexplored 25moz, the likely scenario is that it is much more.
Add to this there is a processing plant on the doorstep and the very low production costs and the Sinosteel contract already in place..
Aandi,
Thanks, your posts are some of the few sensible things on here
Can I ask in your comparison of values with other companies if you have taken the resource/reserve classification into account?
The Russians use A, B, C1, C2 and P1 to P3
1M oz. of C1 worth a lot more than P1, so the 11% and 20% would vary with that classification
https://www.intercontinentalmining.com/russian-reserves-resources-reporting-system/
Values are
This doesn't include the silver.
Easy to mine open pit.
Lowest cost curve producer.
Pd price has fallen 30%.
Other targets and assets.
Sinosteel contract ready to go.
aandi, thanks for all of the effort you’re putting in and sharing the info, it’s really good of you and a nice little aside. When you’re talking about that kind of value you need top board members to hammer out where the next steps take the company, and that is exactly what we’ve got.
ATB, Pete
Good work aandi
The behemoth will awaken soon.
Graeme
For 15moz
11% gives £1.52B = 54.7p
20% gives £2.7B = 97.2p
For 40moz
11% gives 145.86p
20% gives 259p
All just for MT
Say a company had a license on land with no resources, but the exclusive option to apply for a license on the flanks with an estimated 25M oz of PGM. How much would that be worth?
I think this should be added to all calculations of the value of 15M oz.
I multiplied by 7.9, you say use 8.5
I used 30m tonnes, I see on the website it says 28m tonnes. These two cancel each other out
Good man! I use spreadsheets for nearly everything, so like your style.
This is a prime example of why the BoD should not try and rush a sale. As much as everyone wants us to come out of suspension or hear news of a sale soon. The BoD have a very good bargaining position, moreso because we already have the funding in place to go it alone also. There’s no reason for them to rush a sale and accept any low ball offers. I’d much rather us sit tight for 6 months and get another couple of $100m on the price.
The only thing we’ve got against us is there’s only a select few that can actually afford to make an offer and we’re relying on a number of them to actual make offers.
Either way, good times ahead.
But the problem here is that 1.9moz and 15moz are Pd equivalent values. Need to know the tonnage and break down of the different metals in the flanks estimates to calculate a true value for today's metal values. If gold and Pt prices have gone up and Pd Value has gone down since the 15moz Pd(eq) estimate, then today the Pd(eq) value will be higher
I already did multiply, I used 15moz/1.9moz to get 7.9
The only data I did not add was the estimated metal values for the flanks at MT. Couldn't find them in a hurry. I used the 1.9moz metal figures only. Not sure if thee flanks have higher or lower Pd, pt, au quantities?
Aandi.
Top effort. Clearly a good amount of time has gone into your research, Thankyou.
Over the past 6 months, I’ve held back and always kept a level, and grounded head when it’s come to the valuation of Eurasias and it’s associated assets.
But perhaps today the penny has dropped (for me) and the value of MT alone is now between ‘significant’ all the way to ‘historically collosal’ for an AIM listed company.
Unbelievable.
I have converted all metal contents on the top right into decimal percent, where 100% = 1
I have compiled a spreadsheet of the various metal prices over the last 15 years and what each contained metal would be worth historically at Monchatundra,
NAP sold for Canadian$1000m (for 80%) oct 2019 but the spreadsheet uses 2018 reserve estimates
Kevitsa (Boliden) sold for $712m in 2016
The two projects sold for 20% (NAP) and 11% (BOL) metal in ground valve at the time of sale.
That makes todays valve between $2.38B and $4.22B. convert to £ and take away the 20% not owned then it is £1.52B and £2.7B. These other two mines already had working mines I believe, but extraction costs were much higher per Oz. So extrapolate as you wish.
For some reason I get the total resource valve at $21B todays valve. I had thought before it was $30B+, must have been using PD and PT historical high prices to get that valuation.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UiWJO8XU05UpSELupJtl2mUa1l5Q7MzF/view?usp=sharing
Sorry that there is not more notes and the spreadsheet is quite jumbled.
Let me know anyones feedback.