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And I'd humbly suggest a sense of realism and business nous?
Don't think I'd have waited a year before the major decided they didnae want to play whilst hanging on a strong and updating accordingly?
You stick to your COS (or PoS) calls Adna but, you need a little more than that to be successful I'd wager? (LOL).
One of the requirements of the job is knowing how COS is calculated....
No why Gibbers?
It has to be said Hugh didn't really earn that much for a role of that responsibility?
Dunders, have you applied for the vacant position of CEO yet?
Hey Taccy. You seem the miserable one bruv, not me. I'm just posting facts. You're personally entitled to your subjective opinion buddy. I may not disagree with your hunch as well, as I hold EOG shares. Wtgr you do your own research regarding other potential competitive assets, as again this is subjective, as to what risks and Capex/ opex costs there maybe, regarding bringing onstream "possible" resources.
A couple of corrections though
1. I would not be happy if there was a dry hole.
2. I don't discuss my shares with my GF as they don't make me miserable enough to do so, as I've been very lucky with majority of them and to further reinforce that, if I lost all of their value my life ain't going to change one jot, so why be miserable about that?!
All above imho and as ever dyor.
It goes against the grain to take your bait Dunders, but I will reply.
The prospect must be good enough for terms to have been agreed by a NW division of a Major.
It has no competition that I know of next to an exceptional highly commercial operation.
In my opinion and several others , the chances of it being commercial are good.
You're the only one that is almost looking forward to it being dry it seems.
Nothing wrong with living alone, I'm glad that you have someone apart from us to share your
misery with. Nothing personal of course.
Dunders, I think you say it as you see it, speak your mind. I find myself agreeing with many things you have said, you mirror many of my own views. This is the real world no rose tinted glasses.
What of that list do you disagree with Tac?
Me, I purchased because I'm still gambling against the odds.
That's why we buy shares isn't it - to spot "imperfections" in the market.
No mate I don't live alone but is there something wrong with that?!
Wry smile from me.
Oh Dunders, you do yourself no favours at all, its no wonder posters take issue with you. Do you realise what you have just posted.
If the prospect were any good , it would have gone already.
It has competition with others,
Chances are it wont be commercial,
Forecast for a dry shot.
Then you wish everyone Good Luck
I'm not bothered by your forecasts / possibilities, and I'm certainly not looking for confrontation, but there's not a positive bone in your body. Can't you see what you are doing. I just take it all with a large pinch of salt accompanied with a wry smile. Do you live alone.
FGS it doesnt matter.
If it were really that good an expectation it would have gone already.
Dont forget it will naturally be ranked against other local prospects as well.
I know perfectly well how pos is assessed and reviewed having QC'd various LoF models across various differing Geological and financial areas many (many) eons ago!!
I am not denying the pos is "good" for an exploration prospect but as I say it is not that simple and the "chances are" it will not be commercial. I know it looks appealing amongst a well balanced asset / drilling inventory but not for a single shot well!
Having close potential tie back to existing infrastructure could push a lower discovery over the line of course.
As EVER fully caveated as all imho and DYOR.
If indeed it does come dry at some point in the future I'll be accused of gloating when the reality is, all I am saying let's not think it's a discovery just yet!!
Best of luck all.
Yes, it's a multiplication of the percentages, ADNATROB.
Simple COS example:
Probability of Success
Risk Factor Risk (0-1.0)
? Probability hydrocarbon charge 0.80
? Probability of good reservoir 0.80
? Probability of a trap 0.70
(Multiply all the factors) Chance of Success 0.44
Source: http://pages.geo.wvu.edu/~jtoro/Petroleum/21_Prospect%20Evaluation.pdf
Agree, as you say,1 in 3 is actually quite good.
BW
Adna honestly matey you really are boring.
I can assure you I am aware fully of what is and isn't a good pos.
But there you go, this is exactly why I come back and remind people later, as to be very very clear there is still a 2 in 3 chance of it not discovering hcs.
May I ask what exactly is your background?
Not sure Dunderhead is familiar with how COS is calculated as 1 in 3 is actually quite good.