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Check now Squif
hi pelle - you can email me on squifsquif33@gmail.com
The Primary Vision US Frac Spread Count is 255 for the week ending March 27th, 2020. @PrimaryVision #frac It was 280 the previous week . We should see much lower numbers by end of April as well as much lower rigs . Perhaps zero if we get 3 months of lock down if pipeline carriers are already telling producers to cut back . Texas commissioner should act and instruct all to produce 50% until further notice. Act now . All drilling and frac needs to stop now due to CV risk anyway .
Squif,
Do you have email?
Good for you bfath. I hope it works for you. Just ready an article on Bloomberg this morning.
“In physical oil markets, barrels are already changing hands for less than $10”
**** that can’t be true right ?
Hi Pelle - yes i guess we are aligned on average price but maybe differ on break even. What Do you use? I went for 38 but that is maybe too optimistic. Regardless the world now has a huge problem on their hands - enquest break even is far less than most parts of the world and no debt to repay for at least a year. That is not the case for most. My goodness - you have sovereign wealth funds cashing in shares after 18 days - can you even conceive What they Will Do after 100 days!!!!!
Just trying to claw back my 4K of losses on tlw
Ammu I am hyper trading and buying and selling even on a swing of 0.2 of a pence. Whilst we are quiet in work I am not going to sit on my hands. I made 704 quid last week.
Squif,
March, you said oil average 35 and I used the 65 hedge at 50% volume then I got realised oil price 50.
And FCF 3 mill at my excel in March it’s basically +-0.
I am surprised few here even comment the lack of future hedge.
With a normal hedge position 50% 6 months we could have continued with very good FCF as opex/capex will come down in the next months.
SP would also not fall as much as now done.
My guess is AB felt safe before oil crashed just like he did autumn 2018.
There been several possibilities hedge at 65 but they didn’t do it.
65 would have made this excellent investment.
If oil would have gone to 80-90 we could have looked forward to even better future hedges.
I would not be angry that they did things better safe then sorry.
Bfath so you down on your last trade ? And hoping for trading update to save you ?
Squif we also are awaiting to hear about the net profit and free cash flow from 2019. Also Jan & Feb were very strong months for enq as oil was sitting between 70 & 55 dollars.
Enq are in a far better position with their debt levels than pmo and tlw and not one bank will send any company down at present as they know together with people defaulting on their mortgages that this will trigger a complete collapse of the banking sector.
There are going to be so so many zombie companies being propped up who are making huge losses and the banks just keep on offering up more credit to them.
Enq is a low cost and highly profitable business with poo above $50
Ammu I am trading enq and tlw daily when I get the time it is the only way.
I of course feel concerned over the current state of the economy and long term oil prices but if this is the response from the us government after 18 days and we hear that oil sovereign wealth funds are selling stocks, russia is uneasy, Canadian oil Sands are getting shut in and North Dakota oil prices are negative then this should surely be sorted out by june. That is to say if these guys are on their knees after 18 days What is going to happen after 90????? Pelle - if the hedges were q1 only then i disagree with you that enquest was fcf neutral. They would have cashed them all in. I stand by my claim that enquest went at least 23m fcf plus and they should now have 290m cash available. In the worst case They Will burn through 100m in cash this quarter. They have Done a smart thing with the PiK and i am not sure how many other oil companies have Done the same. G20 stands for over 85% of global gdp. It includes russia, ksa, china and usa so They could reach an unconvential solution to avoid What could turn out to be a very messy time for the one Resource the world cannot Do without - oil. Everyone is suffering at these levels and many have covenant tests.
Oh so you bought back in now bfath ?
Cannot sustain this pricing for much longer than a month:
https://www.ibtimes.com/oil-prices-trump-administration-urges-saudi-arabia-end-price-war-russia-amid-2948591