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Trump loyalists won't desert him whatever damage he does - they expect him to be radical and are totally unable or unwilling to appreciate the damage he causes - they simply like the drama and the collateral conflict he creates in their name.
However, at the end of the day there probably are not enough Trump loyalists to win the next election, so he will fail - but don't expect him to change his policies because if he does even his loyalists will abandon him.
For the rest of us that means more economic damage and a lower oil price as a result - not good.
I find it hard to see how so many US citizens continue to support Trump and believe he is collecting tariffs whereas he is just collecting it from his supporters via higher high street prices. China are just sitting back seeing people continue to order things anyway. More higher tariffs means less votes for Trump come election time next year.
romaron
Thanks for your earlier post - I completely agree!.
All the very best to all true holders tomorrow - the rest can foook off! Lol.
DD
Hi Romaron,
I've got Cuban Heels and now a small white thingy. The picture comes together. See you at the agm.
CMDGLAXXXX
Hi hitman, I was in Ikea Greenwich on Sunday evening and had fish & chips. I spent the next 2 afternoons putting together a bed and chest of drawers. When I finished I marveled at the engineering, simplification and accuracy of the instructions. I think we should get Ikea involved in the problems at Thistle. They may even have made a better stab at the FPSO technicals.
I quite like the tight rein on the price this week. Whatever we will say tomorrow its been kept under wraps judging by the price movement. An RNS at 7.00 and hopefully a listen to the CMD. I do hope some analysts turn up.
*I still had 2 plastic dowels left over and a small white thingy.
21p hitman and I am booking 6 star hotel for the family before Christmas
We know about the rising production and kraken, improved cash balances and the stabilisation of poo in the 60’s but what info will ab give to entice the red trouser brigade in the city?
Can you imagine another RI ! Lol
I’d have a bloody sh it fit
Thanks E121
With Kraken first oil in June 2017, it's taken a very long time to get right.. All the time waiting thinking maybe next quarter things will get better. Nearly 2.5 years of analysts feeling the same and giving up.. History will show the company spent a lot of money on an asset that performed badly for years but also gave investors many months/years to accumulate for the eventual upside once things were fixed.
GL : 21p and it's a fish and chip lunch at Ikea tomorrow.
Tip: free tea/coffee if you have the family card.. ( card also free)
Hello Hitman,
The OZ loan doesn't have covenants associated and can't restrict distributions. It's the RCF that restricts distributions when, alongside other conditions, the RCF balance is greater than $500 mill. The balance as of October 1st would've been $580 mill and it would be nice to read tomorrow that they've paid some more RCF debt in advance in the past couple of months.
IMO, unless Brent moves upwards of $65, Enquest will not substantially move up. This isn't Enquest specific, but will apply to every listed UK oiler. I do hope for good news tomorrow - GLA..
I can't find anything on the OZ loan restricting distributions.. only that payable back within 5 years.
I was always disappointed by the OZ hedging strategy and rate they agreed .. It was always too low but remember AB's reply.. "that's what they wanted".. I'd rather pay this back in full next year ($165m) and the scheduled $155m for 2020: total $320m
That releases the ringfenced 15% to help with the 2021 RCF repayments of $440m.
I can't see anything yet to say the Company can elect to pay the cash even if the Brent price is below $65.
The Notes accrue a fixed coupon of 7 per cent. per annum payable semi-annually in arrear.
Interest under the Notes will only be payable in cash on an interest payment date if the cash payment condition is satisfied (the "Cash Payment Condition") as further described below. If the Cash Payment Condition is not satisfied in respect of an interest payment date, interest will not be paid in cash on that interest payment date and will be capitalised and satisfied by the issue of further additional notes to holders of the Notes outstanding at such time.
Interest on the Notes is to be paid on 15 February and 15 August in each year (each, an "Interest Payment Date").
The Cash Payment Condition will cease to apply (and thereafter all payments of interest will be made in cash) upon the earlier of: (A) the repayment in full of the Senior Facilities from cash generated from assets of the Group; or (B) the repayment or refinancing in full of the Senior Facilities on terms that enable the disapplication of the Cash Payment Condition and future interest on the Additional Notes to be paid in cash.
The "Cash Payment Condition" will be satisfied in respect of an Interest Payment Date (as determined by the Issuer) if (i) the average of the Daily Brent Oil Prices during the period of six calendar months immediately preceding the Cash Payment Condition Determination Date is equal to or above US$65.00; and (ii) as at the relevant Cash Payment Condition Determination Date, no payment "Event of Default" (as defined in the senior, secured revolving credit and letter of credit facilities agreement entered into by the Issuer dated 6 March 2012 (the "RCF Agreement") under the RCF Agreement has occurred and is continuing (which shall include, for the avoidance of doubt, any such event of default arising as a result of the aggregate amount of the loans and letters of credit outstanding thereunder exceeding the aggregate commitments under the RCFapplicable at such time).
Romaron, just got a messege and GKB volunteer to trawl through the T & C's of the PIK
Hitman
You made it sound before like that all debt must be cleared and 2022...cant say the word more.
KGB is listening
Exactly Romaron, think you nailed it their!
Pelle 15.46 - maybe it's time to remove the stabilisers (those little wheels on a child's bicycle). It would do wonders for the Retail Bond and in turn the stock price. However, would we be allowed to do it or is it tied down in the terms and conditions.
Looking for a volunteer to trawl through the T & C's of the PIK?
Yes Pelle, I agree the accumulated PIK restricts the dividend payout. Can't recall the RCF amount at the moment..Net debt / actual debt. so little bit of timing issue.. anyway too early for them..
Good E:-) and these PIK on bonds can be cleared "any" day with cash?
But with oil below 65, PIK will appear again unless they can change this condition somehow?
Hello P - yes, you're right. At this time, we won't be that far away from the threshold though!!!
Hitman
I thought we concluded before here that restriction for dividend is
RCF below 500 mill
Bonds PIK around 130 mill to be repayed.
Is it not correct?
actually that $ not £.. so 2.2p
Share price might improve to 22p/36p range: call it 29p
From memory the share repurchase scheme is limited to $50m / annum.. so if you wanted to spend the same on annual dividends, I think Enquest could afford it.. about 3p/share.
SP would improve to 30p/50p range. (lower end).. I just don't think Dividends are on the thing to do now, but an indication of when they might do so, would improve the SP.
Hi KO, returns to shareholders should be discussed at a CMD tomorrow but the answer on dividends will be the same.. once the covenants restricting distributions have been removed, and that can only happed once the debt is cleared. I think 2022 sound reasonable.? Otherwise it's special permission from the banks to deploy the share repurchase program or pay out a dividend. I once asked IR about the share repurchase program and whether AB could act in the same way whilst we waited , and he seems to be doing his bit.. so lets see the SP tomorrow.. nearly always the SP declines after a major speech.. even during the speech itself form memories of the 2018 AGM. So its major upgrade on financials and guidance for 2020 tomorrow .. otherwise why not have a CMD in Jan next year.
One thing that could take us by surprise is from JS.. refinancing. Cashflows are clearly better and refinancing everything excluding the bonds at lower interest rates for slightly longer with no restrictions on distributions could be a quick fix to restoring the market cap.. IIs would be happier with a initial small dividend progressing upwards as annual interest costs decline as debts are cleared.
If that were the case Hitman why on Gods earth would any of the directors buy any Shares. The market needs to know what to expect over the next few years, Dividends have to be a target for the future and must be discussed tomorrow.
Hi E121, you might be right about 2020 guidance. but they should like PMO , give Oct 2019 production by itself, plus the annual average.. so we can make a best guess for Q4 2019..
Surely they can talk about expected EBITDA for 2020 of over $1b.. ( nothing to be embarrassed about), Happy to be corrected tomorrow. ( nearer $1.25b) if 75k at say $66. Baffles me why we are below RI price of 21p, unless no II expects any of this money to go to equity over the remaining years, or all has to get spent on replacing reserves.. so no returns for ever, but plenty of jobs created and sustained over many years..