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Desertsands - very good point...who is hoovering up these shares? of course there is exchange rate risk..
Maybe some punters who hope there will be a bidding war too....infact some Darktrace Directors may know first if Jeffries is seriously trying to start a bidding war....
honestly not worth the trouble buying unless there is a new higher bidder
Undecided atm, I'm in no rush but CLON, POLB and SVML are all on my radar.
AI - “ Question: Can Thoma Bravo or someone aligned with them just hoover up these shares being sold in order to increase their percentage of shares for the vote? “
HKK - “ Makes total sense - why pay 620 when you can hoover them up at 600 now”
Wouldn’t this be considered a closed period ?
KCRCR where will you invest next :)
Today the Fed Powell will make announcement , tonight watch
He will say inflation still too high and at best maintain current interest rates (any cut delayed). Therefore dollar strenght most likely in next 3 to 6 months , and implied Pound weekness....also UK might cut interest rates earlier than USA
so 620 p achievable
However I am not that interested in the exchange rate, i am more interested in whether Jeffries or others can find a new buyer at higher price within 6 weeks
Fully agree, if you only expect 620 will happen at best, sell now and invest elsewhere.
If you believe extra bidder will come within 6 weeks then Hold
Well I was planning to be a lth here having been invested since 2022 but after all the shenanigans of last years failed takeover and the latest "offer" I've decided to take my profit thank you very much. The difference between 602 now and 620 in 6 months time is negligible after taking account of interest rates on cash and speculation of fx rates. In the meantime I will watch from a distance how this pans out and can always get back in if the bid should fail. GLA.
Not results - rns!
Market would know who is buying large quantities of shares as those would have to notified by results when the various thresholds reached.
Remember there is no legal binding agreement here yet; just a RECOMMENDED acceptance by board SUBJECT to shareholder vote so they can do what they want ...
You can't go bust by banking a profit and many will be in that position. On the other hand holding for the agreed £6.20 (depending on your guess at future fx rates) will return a 3.3% increase based on current SP. Meanwhile there remains the albeit low probability of an increased bid. Outside chance is that present offer will not go through and SP will dive - doesn't concern me since I would expect DT to grow much higher soonish. I know what I will do but you literally pays yer money takes yer choice.
$7.50 vs $7.75 sound logic
Makes total sense - why pay 620 when you can hoover them up at 600 now
Question: Can Thoma Bravo or someone aligned with them just hoover up these shares being sold in order to increase their percentage of shares for the vote?
Just as with any share, punters will have different, and often diametrically opposed , views. So if you think the offer will fail, you may want to sell, and re-buy later. If you think a higher offer is on the cards then you may want to buy. The numbers of buyers always matches the number of sellers so the price will range in value reflecting the balance between the price those wanting to buy are willing to pay and the price wanting to sell are willing to sell for. Or they may wish to hold, for various reasons depending on their own circumstances and views.
JP Morgan, for one, cast doubt on pound strengthening but, in any case, if confident that pound/dollar rate will rise to 1.27 etc then best bet would be to trade that guess on the market.
Brighton Park Capital Mgt are selling in large 1million+ parcels, at £6.03 and £6.09 - so they clearly expect no further bids to come in. They have now started their off-loads, so expect to see a bunch more Form 8.3's from them going forwards. It won't harm the share price now, as effectively it is underpinned by TB's offer; but it gives you a really good sign, as to how they feel about the situation and anything else happening. Clearly, they think that it's a 'done deal' here with the TB offer. Follow the II's not the PI's!! 🫡
Sorry, relatively new to this. Why are there still big buys? Will they hold til the deal goes through hoping for £6.20?
* Shorting
It’s exactly what makes the London Stock Exchange a joke & why others stay well away from investing here - City Boys have lost it & the UK culture of shoring our great companies has slowly eroded the LSE into a failing exchange for any form of decent forward growth.
Most forecasts suggest 1.27 to 1.28 delta from 1.25 when deal was announced ($7.75 / £6.20) which could push GBP realised on buyout (should it be approved) at £6.05 which is why it will hover around 595-605
Most forecasts don’t suggest that
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/currency-forecasts/pound-to-dollar-forecast
BUT there are many variables & unknowns at play for the next 6-8 months; inflation, interest rates, conflicts, oil/energy prices, employment etc on both sides of the pond - they are ploughing so much into Ukraine & Israel (as are we) so it could go either way but sentiment is generally GBP will move stronger against USD
Not much more from me now, til we hear timetable, and I expect a new bid to happened maybe 3 to 6 weeks from today
Fingers crossed
This means more chance that 620 p according to exchange rate in next 3/4 months could be maintained...ie strong dollar
Powell will annouce today
Thanks Win,
This time cautiously optimistic...that a better offer somehow can happen
In fact, may I say, any of you who believe a higher bid very unlikely then why not sell out now and invest in a better share/shares and not waste months on Dark?
Its in my interest all retail sell out now, ie those who might vote yes to the current offer, so higher chance to block current bid and get higher offer