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Yes they will need to put in place something by September
Let's not forget the BODS agreed a new facility before Xmas last year but foolishly restructured it on the strength of the monies arriving in from the sale of LSH .I should imagine their lenders patience finally ran out when that was followed by the abortive merger with LSL
However since then the lenders can draw some comfort from H1 results .The BODS I think have hyped up the risks to make the Alchemy deal look more attractive
Overplayed their hand as H 2 will be far from gloomy
Let's get this into perspective
Countrywide still ramping up the house sales .Today showing over 16,400 recently sold.This compares v. favourably with mid July 12,200 & Feb 11,100 . That's a significant improvement putting some hay in the barn
Mix in a fresh set of BODS , a capital raise of say £15-£20m its difficult to think that lenders would not be supportive
Housebuilders are kept bouyant by the impact from help to buy. There are unqiue elements to each industry.
A healthy pipeline and 12 weeks of a booming market don't stop certain banking covenants being breached in September next year - that's the issue underpinning the need to refinance and the lenders have no patience left after 36 months of cap-in-hand re-arrangements... Without a new investor/owner... things start to get uncomfortable next year. That's the harsh truth of it.
With the debt of their backs CWD could be a force to reckon with - but it can't do that on it's own.
I see CWD getting taken out by someone, its too easy to take value out of a company in this much of a mess
Agreed.
The pipelines will be swelling and with the potential Q1 deadline on Stamp the first Q will be bumper.In addition Gov thinking of extending the deadline so it may well carry one.
any reason why a couple of major share holders join up with Alchemy ?
CWD should try and remain CWD and as you say get someone who know hows to run a EA business to just turn up.
Major
Agreed similarities though
Housebuilders SPs have bounced back a little as the market has shown greater resistance than expected in both sales and construction
The main difference with CWD is that the housebuilders have been not overly burdened with debt and well managed unlike CWD
The brands under CWD's umbrella have operated successfully this year despite the handicap of life threatening decisions by the BODS determined to derail them
Let's face it all you have to do is turn up here to make a better fist of things
Some of the brands last week were hitting new highs in sales
look at the housbuilders to see a much better baromteter of the market than this compnay.every agnet in the land are selling out of stock.
as they say in EA-its agreat time to buy !!
Despite the best efforts of the BODS to cloud the horizon with doom and gloom to sugarcoat the toxic Alchemy deal,H2 looks as if it will be very good indeed.
Many of the brands just hitting new peaks .Completions currently taking place of deals struck over the summer
Whoever wins the prize here arriving at a sweet time
Hoskings have pimped up their stake to over 20% and Connells are starting off from ground zero heading into the ring with no shares
"Certainly Paterson needs to put up or shut up"
Been quiet since voicing his objection and should imagine he has spent the last few weeks profitably sounding out the funds and investment houses .
It would be very surprising with his track record of turning around lumpy estate agents profitably that he couldn't garner any support
Yes agree with Weaving it wont be Alchemy's last word and rumours abound of a third party mounting a bid . Strap yourself in ,hang onto your hollyhocks
Who knows where this will end up
I don't there is anything for the CMA to worry about in terms of the branch network. The only area where there is clear risk is surveying - that's the only thing that would hold the deal up.
I do think we will get more 11th hour entrants in to the race and Alchemy will come back with something to stave them off.
Certainly Paterson needs to put up or shut up.
Major
Just imagine if a selection from Hamptons ,Bairstow Eves.Taylors . Surveying Services had been appointed to the BODS
First and foremost any expansion would have been oraganic with only limited selective purchases after Hamptons
There is a £100m+ saved spent on disappearing goodwill before you start
LSH paid more for the ES Group and Tushingham Moore group than they are worth today
Don't write Paterson either I am sure there are a number of the institutional investors who would be happy to support him to turn the battleship around
There is a lot of talent out there-removing the senior board will allow more expertise(skill !!) in choosing the right people to take this on. Specifically its about sorting EA out-everything else comes from that.
I hope this isn't a one horse race and Countrywide can rise form the ashes once again in its own right.
Robin Paterson having a boot in both camps so to speak. Not only did he sort Hamptons out but Barnard Marcus (Connells) too
Major
Correct . Yes indeed you are right
Quite a bit of duplication within the whole Group. Its only Scotland and parts of Yorkshire that fills the gap
If push comes to shove they can jettison a few brands
Amalgamations and closures would be inevitable but Connells have a strong management team capable of undertaking the task
You would have thought that considerable thought had already been given to this before knocking at the door
This could of course encourage A N Other to arrive on the scene ?
Who knows how this is going to turn out Maybe Alchemy might arrive with an all cash offer?
Connells no doubt a ready buyer for some of the brands if Alchemy looking to splice and dice and take an early bath
Interesting times
but is this not Connells group which included all Sequence branches which is the larger more dominant brand-also Sharman Qunney, G Holman Barnard Marcus etc
Only
Possibly but they could easily jettison a few of the brands to become compliant
Take a look at both Connells and Countrywide branch network and it fits like a glove . Connells with just 180 branches have zero representation in Scotland,Wales. the The North and Cornwall so the duplication is limited
The following brands at CWD sales offcies cover areas where Connells are absent
SCOTLAND
Countrywide Scotland
Slater Hogg
WALES S&W
John Francis
THE NORTH& N WALES
Beresford Adams
Bridgfords
Clive Watkin
Sutton Kersh
Entwistle Green
Blundells
CORNWALL
Miller
Stratton Creber
in addition The Central London branches of Hamptons & John D Wood +many other towns
This is a once in a liftetime opportunity for Connells to gain nationwide coverage in one fell swoop at a bargain basement price.
On the face of it it looks like a marriage made in heaven.
Thankyou Sain@vision , Ive just taken the time to read the statement through properly . Thanks for pointing it out
Your indepth knowledge please Sain. Is there a chance the proposed takeover by Connolls will be referred to the monopolies and mergers commission bearing in mind Connells look like Countrywide "Light" in terms of a business?
Zodiac
Read the statement
"Countrywide shareholders should take no further action in connection with the proposed transaction, including the making of payments of application monies, and the submission of application forms, documents of title, proxy forms and voting instructions, until further notice."
Anyone taking up their Open Offer Entitlement .?...I'm on the verge of buying as unless I'm missing something its the chance to buy whole load shares at 135 when current market value is 205and will possibly shoot up if any more news from Connells . Seems to good to be true ?
Connells trousered a huge amount of money from the Gov during lockdown. How can they then go out Christmas shopping for £80 plus million.
Well a fruitless exercise
"Countrywide shareholders should take no further action in connection with the proposed transaction, including the making of payments of application monies, and the submission of application forms, documents of title, proxy forms and voting instructions, until further notice."
Only this set of BODS could incur yet another raft of abortive costs undertaking a corporate action before gaining shareholder's approval to the Alchemy deal
This deal was never going to happen in any event as the Connells indicative offer testifies the BODS were selling shareholders down the river
This hapless set of BODS looks like they are facing even more pursuing the Dane for £10m in the LSH saga
https://www.bisnow.com/london/news/commercial-real-estate/the-1am-email-that-killed-the-deal-inside-the-failed-sale-of-lambert-smith-hampton-106641
Great excuse the Dane using COVID as an excuse last December for not completing the deal !!
Scathing attack on Long in the FT by Alistair Osborne
thetimes.co.uk/article/finally-we-have-an-injection-of-hope-tkmcpcz2b?shareToken=209feeb17cb4a90428e1acb330a4e9dc
Guess what? Far from it being the “only” solution, Countrywide’s now disclosed that four days before the prospectus was published it received an all-cash bid approach from rival Connells at a possible 250p: a 72 per cent premium to last Friday’s close. Countrywide shares duly shot up 41 per to 205p. And Mr Long has now come over all Baldrick, saying his Alchemy deal was part of a cunning plan to “flush out interested parties”. Not that anyone should fall for that.
Great excuse him using COVID as an excuse last December for not completing the deal !!
That's exactly how I'm looking at it, I hope I haven't missed anything either haha!
Would it be prudent to say that anyone that has been offered the Open Offer Entitlement shares with CWD as I have would be foolish not to buy them at the price of 135p per share at this point or am I missing something . ?
I think the set of BODS at CWD have demonstrated quite clearly their ineptness
Their track record is in sharp contrast to Connells which has been one of success ,expanding organically and filled to the brim with individuals ,time served ,experienced and held in high esteem amongst their property peers