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Well if those at CWD who prepare valuation reports have not been drafted back in yet another bad decision by the BODS .As usual liitle news emanating from CWD
Their Twitter account says it all .Their last entry some self -applauding backslapping of an historic Awards ceremony
No reaching out whatsoever
https://twitter.com/CountrywideUK
I believe lots of surveyors (inc CWD) are still on furlough so that could explain delays in getting valuations done .
An agent was complaining on Twitter that deals were being held up as valuers are too busy .Citing a case that its taking over a month before they can inspect for a mortgage valuation report .This ties in with what the Head of CWD Surveying Services was saying that they have never been so busy .
Plenty of valuation fees coming in but slowing down the arrival of the more lucrative sale fees!
Sales still coming in thick and fast amongst the brands but looks like peaking out which is only to be expected
Trendz, I would imagine they will give a trading update with the interim announcement which according to their financial calendar is in September/October 2020. So pretty soon I would think.
Hi guys - i'm thinking of investing here. Would someone kindly let me know when the next trading update is expected?
There is always a clear and present danger of some of the more talented / heavyweight staff becoming impatient and leaving the fold under a lame duck administration . Not prepared to gamble their futures on uncertainty
Hamptons have recently lost their Head of Sales Peter Everett a seasoned veteran responsible for the many Hamptons branches outside London . They have been doing particularly well easing out of lockdown
Shareholders can possibly take some comfort from Hunters Est.Agents reporting today
"Achieved record sales activity in each of June, July and August. August instructions being 38% ahead of last year and leaving a network pipeline ahead +43%"
Open letter to Robin Paterson
Patters
It was so refreshing to read your open letter to the BODS at CWD .Suspect it had been sitting in Long's in tray gathering dust
From someone who has considerable skin in the game ,involved in building Hamptons up a to a success story and capable of negotaiting a good deal as evidenced by your timely sale of them to CWD
I hope that you are in earnest discussions with Hoskings who have built up a stake and won them over I guess Oaktree might be the difficult one unless there is a place reserved at the top table and they can enjoy the merry dance yet again
Its a crying shame that you haven't appeared before.
'
You must be further heartened that the market has been kind recently with increased scores at the door . Mindful that now the sails need to be trimmed to keep on course .Cessation of bad practice of Blackwall caulk to keep the ship afloat.
"Fortiter ac fideliter !
If I may borrow a motto from your alma mater
I am sure many small investors will join me in saluting you and welcoming on board and hopefully you will soon be wearing the Bicorne and replacing Captain Pugwash
From the 1st October the Gov't contribution on furloughing reduces to 60% from 80% .Certainly time to make some difficult decisions but these need to be undertaken by those who will be leading CWD forward The succession needs to be resolved asap
https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-cumber-36a54538/?originalSubdomain=uk
Well certainly encouraging news that most CWD services are buzzing. Should imagine LSH are a little quieter Fresh instructions in September looking robust with inventory currently just a whisper under 21k .
CWD starting to look like areal opportunity at this level for some fresh faces to arrive
I'm presuming Countrywide Surveying Services are part of CWD. I'm afraid I don't know much about CWD even though I'm a shareholder!
https://www.mortgageintroducer.com/has-normal-service-resumed/
They are still bashing away Dixons Willenhall. 2 properties freshly listed today already under offer and they don't appear to be recycled .
Https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/branch/dixons-estate-agents-willenhall-sales-willenhall-28297/
The 36k barrier has been breached today of total instructions to include recently sold Certainly been galloping along
It must be very confusing for buyers amongst CWD brands where the words "under offer" , sold subject to contact and a new one "sold subject to status"which doesn't mean very sold at all are bandied around
Certainly unless a contract has been exchanged under offer will suffice .Many a drop falleth betwixt cup and lip .
As a seller you don't want to put off a potential purchaser ready willing and able to go ahead thinking the property has been sold whilst holding out for a buyer hoping his job might get unfurloughed
"Data analysts @TwentyCi estimate it now takes an average of 125 days from offers being accepted to exchange of contracts, compared with 107 days a year ago."
So certainly acknowledged within the industry but gratfication deferred
Raleigh.
I would say that article accurately reflects the current situation and acknowledged by many agents .Deals are taking much longer to get over the line post agreement .Uncertainty about the future hanging over many of the chains and perhaps a little over hyping of price increases . A difficult market where a good agent comes into their own .
Having said that deals are being done and in greater numbers quite considerably so amongst a number of CWD branches. Certainly a country mile in excess of this time last year.
His final paragraph resonates .nothing more important than to get the succession in place asap
"The best agents are looking beyond the current ‘honeymoon period’ and are now thinking about how they can maximise their longer term pipelines to insulate their businesses from the possibility of further market turbulence. "
Here is a slightly different take across the industry.
https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/features/2020/9/insight--whats-really-going-on-in-the-market
The position on the 17th July was 20.814 sales inventory to include recently sold a total of 32,626
Today the current inventory being maintained 20,815 whilst the gap with recently sold has increased significantly to 35.771 .This likely to continue for another 2 months
It's frustrating that the company is effectively in limboland as the sleeping giant awakes .Time for some effective leadership to take control and harness this momentum at the gate.,
Despite the fact that many of the brands and branches are currently enjoying an uplift in sale still too many passengers in the group . Some selective pruning required but that needs a new leadership not the lame duck adminsitration we have now .
This ponderous set of BODS aren't doing shareholders any favours
Still too many branches with a sales inventory of under 30 with about 25% sold STC with just a handful of sales pcm which in some cases is not even keeping the lights on
I guess furloughing is just delaying the decision .
What seems to haves escaped the attention is that Hoskings have built up a 10% stake in July.
Not slow in coming forward to have a say in changes
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/74969-hosking-partners-moves-against-flybe-groups-board
No doubt Paterson has been having some interesting conversations but surely both Oaktree and Brandes have been unhappy with the way Creffield and Long have run this
Brandes have done their Bo***** on their shareholdings here. Lets hope they have done some serious hedging to mitigate
Even better is Dundee where the shelves have been cleared .Going faster than toilet paper at the beginning of lockdown
With just 8 sales instructions an average listing time of just 4 weeks .
Only 2 currently available rest sold STC
Of the 2 still available one listed in September and the oldest listed on the 26th August !
Https://www.zoopla.co.uk/find-agents/branch/slater-hogg-and-howison-dundee-sales-dundee-89083/
Slater Hogg and Hewson are the other Scottish band with CWD Scotland .They are scorching a trail too
Current inventory 499 but 1166 to include recently sold Very healthy
Here is 1 of their smallish Glasgow branch offices
Https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/branch/slater-hogg-and-howison-bishopbriggs-bishopbriggs-28598/
Just 30 instructions but 7 of those freshly instructed in September
Of the other 23 they have 16 away.
Not only that the oldest instruction is March !
Increasing your mortgage has little bearing on your monthly outlay at the moment, Rates have dropped significantly, so to borrow the extra amount, doesn't actually cost The movers that much each month. Plus with the stamp duty benefits it’s no wonder the market Is Booming at the moment, buy-to-let investors coming back in to get deals before March. I can only see this as an upward trend until March next year.
Remember that if people can’t pay their mortgage they get repossessed, the agents still make money out of repos. Lots of life left, it’s only just begun.
Speaking from my pocket now so have a vested interest!Confirmation bias.
For the last 3/4 years the story has been all about reducing the millstone debt .The banks have had their hands around CWD's throat and for once the last couple of months has witnessed the coffers filling up has at least given them some slack
This Gov't whose main task has to be get Brexit over the line is more than likely to extend furloughing in some shape or form until next year and damn the consequences .
Like the Severn Bore even when the tide turns the wave like a rolling ball continues to Gloucester So scores on the door likely to head into the new year and make significant inroads into the debt
Today the company is valued at £55m with say £75-85m worth of debt. An entry price for less than £150m With the lightweights leaving the regime Opportunity knocks to get in and let the merry dance start up again.
Lookls like somebody is moving in on Foxtons Its time to play
I reckon they have been selling 1,500 properties pcm more than last year and 700pcm above Dec/Jan
Some of the branches have experienced unprecedented sales with many showing over 70% sold STC September has also been good for fresh instructions and some branches without any unsold from last calendar year Even some of the loss making Central London branches are at least treading water
At HQ today a steady 20,680 sales instructions but an increasing total to includes old . Now 35.516 over 35k for the first time for a long time
There can be no doubt that after months of inactivity the property market is currently riding on a crest of a wave and assuming a majority of these recent sales complete then that will be welcome income into many businesses including CWD and good luck to them. But don't forget furlough is due to end in October and with the Government seemingly determined to get workers back into their offices it is unlikely to be extended at least anywhere near it's current eye watering level of support and then what? Hopefully not daily reporting of more and more job losses with small businesses continuing to go bust and now it's looks like even Christmas is cancelled. Think now is a good time to move and increase your mortgage? Maybe not. Not much life left in this old dog me thinks but as always best of luck to all.