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Sain. As a former CWD employee of many years standing perhaps I can give you my opinion. With very few exceptions anyone with either the knowledge, ability or desire to promote themselves forward actually remain within Countrywide at the required level. It was frightening to see how many capable MD's and many at director level were either forced out during the Platt era or simply could not stomach the crazy ' retail ' strategy which she and her appointed successor to Bob Scarff tried to implement. Those that remained were happy to go along with a strategy they knew to flawed ( and privately admitted was madness ). What do these people who were then responsible for the almost total financial collapse of this business say when questioned by any prospective board or employer on taking up another role elsewhere? Pretty sure Connells won't be fooled for too long post takeover.
Agree with the comments regarding any takeover in so much that the people who should be worried are sadly ( with a few exceptions) all wearing a CWD hat currently. Two Regional Managers covering the same patch? Two MD's ? etc. etc. I don't think so. Branch staff fairly safe I suspect as they were not the reason why CWD got into a mess and based upon my own experience no one listened to your opinion anyway. The yes men/women who went along with the crazy ' retail ' strategy when they privately knew it to be flawed are the ones who should be worried if the Connells deal succeeds and i for one would like to hear how they try to dig themselves out of that hole. Trust me I'm an Estate Agent!
As a former CWD employee I also doubt anyone other than the BODS held anywhere near 400k worth of shares but still a fair point made but hopefully most like me saw the share price start to move south rapidly and stopped their monthly salary sacrifice which was indeed capped at £150 a month. Fortunately I didn't lose too much by stopping my payments but I suspect others did and that must have left a bitter taste. Amazing how the people responsible for the almost total collapse of this once proud business making one bad decision after the next can ride off into the sunset as if it was everyone else's fault but theirs. I'm not bitter just angry.
In reality very few former business owners who sold out to CWD mostly for ludicrously excessive sums indeed remain. The majority either swiftly departed to enjoy a well earned early retirement, promoted their siblings as part of the sale and then like plenty simply waited for their 18 month lockout period to end and set up again around the corner. Of those I spoke to personally the last thing on their mind was getting involved with the day to day running of CWD as it was considered a desk job sat with a lap top at best ( albeit well paid ) but too far removed from the coalface to be of interest to someone used to calling the shots with hands on involvement.
Unfortunately Sain you are correct in so much that the people who actually had a positive influence on the business have long since departed being either pushed out or just couldn't stand by without voicing their opinion during the disastrous Platt led era. Those that remained were more than happy to promote a ludicrously flawed business model which they knew to be madness but as a Regional MD for example on circa 100k and a big mortgage to pay happy to go along with it in public. Some very good people left CWD as a consequence of refusing to back this 'retail' vision taking their knowledge and experience with them and like me then took no pleasure i can assure anyone interested in seeing the place then run by clueless sheep only intent on lining their own pockets.
Unfortunately the quite ridiculous spending spree on buying up mainly Lettings books and whole Lettings businesses has backfired on them pretty spectacularly when at the end of the agreed lock out period ( normally 2 years ) the very people who couldn't believe their luck with the amount of cash ( not shares ) thrown at them by the muppets at CWD simply opened in in some cases around the corner from their previous location and quietly took back the clients worth having ( long term investors ) and left the rest. The reality I'd that the majority of these businesses were small independent family run and no one therefore with the relavent experience needed to head up the CWD behemoth. The truth is a little more simple in my opinion in that the real talent had already seen the writing on the wall during the Platt/Tyrer debacle and either ran out the door in horror or took their payoff and ran for the hills. Sadly only yes men/women left so good luck to whoever is given the poison chalice they will need plenty of it.
In answer to an earlier question whether to hold or buy I will probably hold for a while longer to see whether Paterson has the stomach or financial backing for a fight as otherwise the current deal will be absolutely toxic for smaller shareholders like me. Hard to see this above 150p at close with all the negative press as Alchemy appear to be the only winners here having seemingly already received a nod and a wink from the BODS or whomever else is running the show behind the scenes. Baaa!
What an absolute mess and yet another example of the wool being pulled over the eyes of the smaller share holders and staff who continue to be utterly shafted by whoever is effectively running this train wreck. The BODS have all been next to useless as demonstrated by their complete lack of direction and any forceful input into the running of the business over the last few years as it went down the drain and most of them are now soon to be culled ( good riddance ) should the proposed Alchemy deal proceed with no doubt fat pay offs to all. Sheep the lot of them and that's probably being unkind to our woolly friends.
There can be no doubt that after months of inactivity the property market is currently riding on a crest of a wave and assuming a majority of these recent sales complete then that will be welcome income into many businesses including CWD and good luck to them. But don't forget furlough is due to end in October and with the Government seemingly determined to get workers back into their offices it is unlikely to be extended at least anywhere near it's current eye watering level of support and then what? Hopefully not daily reporting of more and more job losses with small businesses continuing to go bust and now it's looks like even Christmas is cancelled. Think now is a good time to move and increase your mortgage? Maybe not. Not much life left in this old dog me thinks but as always best of luck to all.
Agreed MT too hard to call.
Until some fresh blood is brought in then this business is going nowhere fast. Sadly no one capable internally because anyone worth their salt either left or were pushed out sometime ago post Mrs Platt and those that then remained at the top table clearly had nothing to offer. Doubtful if the business as it now stands can remain in it's current form which is truly sad to see. Just look at Connells for example and what can be achieved with experienced directors and long serving management teams. Then rewind 6 years and the crumbling of CWD since that time is truly astonishing.
Not a takeover target yet as still too much debt to carry and too many clowns still dressed up in their lion costumes. Will be interesting to see the response from the likes of Oaktree but doubt they will show their hand publicly. Hard to call yet but no doubt someone in the game at last who has come up with a sensible plan rather than the back to basics crap that was previously being spun. Now remind me again how that played out?
Seems very clear now why Catalist Partners took another chunk of shares as they believe that they can extract value by forcing the selling off of most the profitable parts of the business i.e surveying, financial services and LSH. Interesting they ignored conveyancing but assume they have other plans for that. So basically close more Branches and chuck more staff out the window, move to a hub operation similar to the Haart proposal and recruit a whole new layer of senior management to replace the existing clowns. Oh and the IT is useless too. What an absolute disaster and how inspiring for anybody still working there as they struggle to earn a living. Good luck with the new CEO appointment after this statement of intent.
Agreed needs to be someone who can lead from the front and gain immediate respect from the troops and their investors. Appointing Alison Platt was actually not seen initially as a mistake what she did subsequently was where it all went wrong and by recruiting a clueless midget from carphone warehouse to front up the Agency business which ironically was the one area that needed a hardnose so and so to replace Bob Scarff ( who was shown the door pretty quickly) who had previous experience in the game not someone who picked it up as they went along. If it's done right this time then there is still hope it will certainly stick in a lot of the current team if Mr Long continues to draw a paycheque by remaining on the board his recent track record if you include the debacle at The Post Office is hardly a new broom. Only my opinion of course.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Share price seems to be holding up remarkably well given that the two head honchos have decided they are not able or capable of making some tough decisions moving forwards and in truth both being responsible to some degree for the catastrophic fall in the share price over the last 3 years and some dreadful business decisions sending the business into a huge tailspin. What is probably most telling is in the BODS search for external replacements they openly admit that there is no one capable internally to step up to the plate when in the pre-Platt era there were plenty of candidates potentially but they all either jumped ship rather than agree to business suicide or were pushed out the door because they spoke their mind. Hopefully the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train headlight. Good luck to all.
Would be interesting to know if the 3 massive buys within the past week are from the same source as the majority of buys seem what you would expect from buyers looking for a punt and another quick profit and then get out. Maybe they are second guessing the market but if so it could be an expensive gamble as very few pundits are expecting any real growth in this sector once the current activity falls away once we approach autumn and the Spector of unemployment starts to bite.
Still no news from CWD regarding re-opening the remaining 30% branches which remain shut and still relying on the by now ludicrous reason of them awaiting a Covid audit. Interesting to see that Haart a major competitor have today announced that they are to reopen all of their Branches within the next 10 days and by comparison Connells their largest competitor by Branch network reopened ALL of their Branches some weeks ago. As I pointed out in an earlier post they closed 129 Branches in 2019 and clear that plenty more will be culled in 2020 or maybe the there really is a cunning plan in place.
Ismailia
Sain is more than capable of answering for himself. But for what it maybe worth I agree with your post. However this is an open forum set up for discussion on the merits or otherwise of a particular share and there is no doubt in my mind at least that any shareholder who was looking for growth based upon the lamentable performance of the BODS in recent times has long since disappeared and those in for the short term have taken their recent profits with them. For the future who knows but buried in their 2019 report was confirmation of 129 Branch closures and there are still 30% closed under lockdown and yet to re-open. I continue to have a modest holding based upon sentiment more than anything as I took a more than decent profit at 620p ( pre-consolidation) back in the day so a current like for like of 3p doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the current BODS stewardship. But only my opinion and time will tell.
Seems clear to me that the decision taken to NOT re-open around 30% of their Branch network has nothing to do with " a Covid 19 risk assessment " but more a financial move to continue taking the Government cash until the BODS decide whether to shut another chunk of Branches for good. I doubt those that remain shut were the top performers pre-lockdown as that would make no business sense so covering their stock remotely by a nearby Branch is a no brainier. The BODS hopefully have a cunning plan up their sleeves but I for one won't bet on it being the right one. Time will tell.
If the figures quoted by Sain are accurate it does seem strange that such a large operation as CWD have only opened such a relatively small number of Branches when their High Street competitors all seem to be up and running. They must have had plenty of time to organise themselves for a re-start so maybe a cost cutting exercise in not re-opening some Branches and continue taking the Governments cash? Not a great time for those staff still on furlough who maybe worried about their Branch when it can be covered remotely elsewhere. Time will tell but if this is part of a cunning plan but wouldn't bet on it given the BODS recent track record in second guessing the market.
Blue storm
See post below from sain which pretty much sums up their current position perfectly. As to the future who knows? Maybe there is some Hope value but short to medium term gains very doubtful in my opinion as there can be no quick fix to the current economic situation and would you consider moving home when you don’t even know whether you will still have a job in 6 months time? We are all well aware past performance is no indicator of future returns. But as always the very best of luck if that’s your mantra.