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Ian
The whole email is on an earlier thread, about a week ago FYI
Following intra day fluctuation can drive people mad, if u look back to history of capita price. When it was around these levels people mustav regretted not having patience to have held when it reached £10 plus. This is one of very few shares that is at a level when covid hit and since, dow and ftse 100 is near pre covid levels. So this is due some upward moment imho
JV68 thanks for sharing that info. Sounds promising. My buy order executed 32.9.
Mcaps fallen far to low for such a huge business. Let’s hope they deliver on that sustainable free cash flow - you ask which year and the email is not clear on that. The Dec 13th update says this year so unless they retract that I go with this year. It was only 5 weeks ago.
Thanks Aimmaster, sometimes it's good to read bullish view points and a reminder of exactly what's what.
Rns can come anytime, am sure IR will have eye on the share price. I do expect debt reduction definitely, they could however could add that to disposal rns or in march report. Any debt reduction is good news will be taken positively, material reduction could see this fly imho. Capita had a plan and a structure. So once 700 m disposal target is achieved. Then it would point to the fact that they will be where they want to be. IMHO
If analyst have this valued at higher price than today, what is the probability of a new institutional investor taking a stake. The UK economy has grown fastest in g7, outsourcing imho becomes very important expecially capita has staff and infrastructure to take on new contract. Also to outbid other bidders with simple low cost business model... u can see more contracts being won already in this month. So at market cap around 550 m is cheap imho
Do you expect a disposal RNS this week?
Also he stated in the email sent that the market expected to hear a reduction in net debt, but this was not possible at the time as monies were not received until January .
Are we likely to hear about that prior to March or in full year accounts?
To me, free cash flow was highlighted in HY1 report. How they would achieve is was through reorganisation and reducing the division from 6 to 3 if am right. Transformation was completed or near complete end of last year from what I heard hence why some transformation chief officers were let go because they've achieve what they were bought in for imho. They then recruited growth officer in December to now grow revenue etc etc
This is a paragraph from recent email from Stuart Morgan
So in terms of reassurance: we remain on track to reduce debt this year and the disposal process is going well; we expect to have grown in 2021 and certainly in 2022, which represents a turnaround for the business; and we also expect a major improvement to positive free cash flow next year.
Do you read that as positive cashflow in 2022 this year or 23 next year?
This would be a backtrack fro what they expected.
Also I am now fearful on a day like when everything is up, wall of blue, that this sp action is Schroders further reducing.
Just checked what aiming posted, I see Barclays reiterated buy stance after analysing the 13/12 update with an 80p target..
it’s pricking my interest at low 30,s.. 150% upside if Barclays analysis is accurate but looks some way off.
If they do what they say in the last update and generate sustainable free cash flow this will break that 52p resistance. It’s hit it a few times and then fallen back.
As Simon says (haha) they need to show they can deliver on that claim.
Any undervalued stock will correct itself. This is clearly one. Where cash exceeds market cap imho. With transformation nearing end, the numbers should show this year. Analyst have price target close to double current price. Do remember, once it moves, it moves big. IMHO.
Fair value probably where it is it will statt to climb before results and then drop again on results day after that irt willj then just stay pretty much whwe it is the 1 poind tatgets people on her have said is crazy come back to me when capital do exactly as they say they are going to. Awful just an awful.company.
For a share that supposedly tracks the ftse, it's hardly encouraging on a day like today when the ftse is up 1.7 for it be now be red.
Losing the will to live holding this right now.
Cpi looking very cheap again on a mcap of just £556m. Vector vest who are bearish on markets atm have fair value now at 50.57p and this undervalued.
Last update caused a price drop from 48 to 38 area. Ive read it again and it’s a mixed bag but I noted one comment in the headlines.
“We continue to expect sustainable free cash flow generation in 2022”
Knownothing a quid bu the end of the year? You said a quid by now if people were to check your old pists they wont make the profit you say they wont hit there targets and this will continue to struggle its a dinosaur of a company that is to big to fully save. Had a real chance of going undsr i think they are ok for now due to managing to get debt under control by selling parte of the business bit they have sold off parts that were very profitable. They will flaetter to deceive come reults days and this will drop yes they will stay in business for the short to medium term bu ling term thr model wont work. Hopefully people make there money trading this and get out i feel sorry to the people that bought in at 50p when some thought that was a buy signal. There has been some shocking ramping of this sp on here when its been priced to fail JL will stop that happening for now but long term they could well be in trouble again people on here dont realise how much trouble cpi were in calling in advisors as the initial plan failed. Ive said before John Liwis is a specialist and a bit city name but its just to big a job an absolute dinosaur of a comoany know -make your money trading and dont hold long term would he my suggestion money to be made short tern mmm fir sure.
Passwind - I am only taking what CPI issue and help people decipher it
It is due to have little (non IFRS16) debt by end of year and their expected cash free profits should be 250-350M (wide range I know!)
If they spent 100M on divis (say 6p) then SP over a quid is absolutely realistic
Questions remain, will they be (non IFRS16) Debt free by year end? and secondly, will cash free profits from Continued Operations be circa 300M.
They are intimating at both those being answered yes, and that is why I say the SP should be a quid (by end of year) or certainly during H1 2023.
August (H1) will tell us more than March (2021) about this years profits, but it should give us an insight as to debt levels
To be debt free (non IFRS16) by year end, I calculate that with the balance of expected disposals then profit has to be within the target range - still a LTH for me and due to its small debt and multiple govt contracts, its still (IMHO) one of the safest shares on the market
But please DYOR - Its been a very profitable share for me, because I buy when it goes so low as it is now!
GLA
Yeah con ern tho small drops by them to be fair very interesting tines ar the moment still awful fsiling dinosaur of a company as we all know except for that fraud knownothing money fo be made short term but look foward to the excuses on results day when this plummets agsin awful failing company.
The concern is Schroders has issued 2 holding rns in 2 days, and they hold large stake in this unloved share. I don't think the share price wouldav been around 45p odd without them. They seem to be offloading presumably at loss, according know0, they bought around 40s... as someone said before why they selling when they should be buying imho.
Two digit rise wouldn't be bad today
I sold out @37p around two weeks ago. Bought in @ 34p.
Was going to hold on until 43-45p but it wasn't moving quick enough and didnt like the signs so bailed for the time being. I'm not long term on this as future is far too shady Money to be made on this one short term but you have to be on your toes :-)))
Looks like sub 27 is off the cards following a strong finish in the US. The next few days will be very interesting. If Ukraine situation improves then maybe I'll have to rethink my strategy. GLA
Only consolation today is the Dow and Nas have clawed back most of today's losses. Nas was 4.5% off earlier now only about .5%.
The high beta makes it look scarier than it really is.
I'm off to pour a stiff drink. I'm not going to look at a ticker again until June :D
I guess when you think about it, it's had over 30% correction since December, even another almost 10% today still leaves it in the 30s.
They talked about 50 million ongoing sustainable cost savings each year to partially offset inflationary pressures. It's the other part of that, plus the covid impact on capita experience that is worrying me re the results. But again experience is earlier in its transformation.
This is by far my largest holding, and although I am sitting on a large loss at present, I too can't see them going bust, I could see it as a possible target especially when they confirm the debt has been reduced, and I feel the upside potential is far greater than the downside risk.
It's just stressful sitting on a large holding that is susceptible to large daily cash swings either way.