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Edit OPL
I know mate.
But we could now be in a while new ball game.
Only time will tell. To my way of thinking if OOK diesnt6 go ahead in these conditions it never will.
Try to be optimistic and forget the past,infuriating as it was
Im extatic on the Atomic deal but very bitter on OPL as I felt ive been lied to all this time, I genuinely believed the BS about Kolas being on board, I actually blame myself for being so naive.
Sub. That made me laugh. Some truth in it I guess.
Just hope even Nigerians can be tempted by loads o dish.
Bob- I wouldnt be so sure on Nigeria, even when oil peaks 200$ they will not pull their finger out, my views on them have not changed, stubborn people.
Any how Easter soon so they probably left office early and wont return back to work until May after scoffing down chocolate, then few weeks after that to dust off their desks and repeat the cycle again to just sharpen the pencils and stock up on stationarys.
In a nutshell it will be kicked down the flipping road again, but hey ho we have Kola on speed dial so nothing to worry about!
What a mouth watering prospect Rollin
Imagine both Atomic and OPL 226 both steaming ahead with oil at 100+.
I leave the calculation of to those better qualified to do so.
How many millionaires on here would that produce? May even include me
just popped in for a look, busy week ahead but as a lover of spooky coincidences and
omens, look even better
been quite some time since my weekend racing/footy accumulator came up and had
a little knock on the lottery (yesterdays only got 3 but a jackpot rolldown turned it
into £106 )
Last time similar and got the hat trick was a little minnow at the time called rockhopper
my late entry at 25p roared to £5 (spiked to £5.69p)
SO is it COPL for hopings hat trick , here hoping so, enjoy the rest of the weekend
catch ya on the FLIP side tomorrow
:))
Bob
Well, it's worth looking at the influencers in Nigeria or those in power.
Top three, in order of authority.
President, Muhammadu Buhari
He's now approved the PIB (Petroleum Industry Bill) ... and worthy of note, he didn't previously.
Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo
He supports the PIB
Head of Senate, Ahmed Lawan
He supports the PIB
He was voted in with a landslide victory in 2019, so clearly has a lot of support.
“We will pass the PIB that will ensure that businesses here get a very competitive environment; that they are able to make profit and stay and even invest more,”
At the start of the hearings, Senate President Ahmed Lawan said the government wants the PIB to be rubber stamped by the National Assembly in April and become law before 29 May 2021.
With the three 'top dogs' now behind it, seems obvious that it will get passed and soon.
April, so the PIB passing could be just weeks away.
:o)
Just a thought.
Now that Oil's on track for 100 doll+, the days of holding back on Licences are over. This super cycle won't last forever. Having said that a country like Nigeria will be as anxiis as anyone to make the most of it.
So I can now see OPL 226 being a GO.
And add increase to 100%WI, increase in bopd, sentiment and of course opl then I’m predicting 8-10p in two years time.
Even with a more conservative PE ratio of 10 and 13b OS it still comes in at 2.5p
My baseline calculation for sp align with most others on here (excluding sentiment) I get approximately 4.3p using following metrics:
PE of 17
5000bopd average for the year
£30 profit per barrel (perhaps conservative)
12 billion OS
57% WI
@charlie actually the first of the “fateful 5 day” was the last trading session. Only 4 to go!
Mr.P.,
I’d previously scribbled down the NPV over 5 years for Atomic at 57%WI which had then come out quite close to the NPV 10 figures, & slightly on the conservative side. Hopefully it again gives a good approximation to a proper NPV 10 calculation for 100%WI of both fields.
I wondered about a top end figure that NOP & CNOOC might try and ask for, so i thought the calcs might help in trying to work out a ‘worst case purchase price’. AM so far has kept the debt v.low, which may or may not be significantly increased to obtain 100%WI. The returns though look quite awesome if the in-house production forecasts match their estimates. And the COPL team previously had a very good reputation in finding the sweet spots. In addition to AM’s reputation as a deal maker.
I’ll see what the other chaps then think of as a good 100%WI figure, and is i like their calcs, so will meet them half way.
Will be more than pleased though to see COPL acquiring 57%WI and re-asserting their skill sets again.
Dougb
Great post. Lot of other excellent posts also. I have not been following this regularly. But I take on board the collective concensus of the bb.
5-7p sounds good. As a very rough estimate if we take the mean of 0.7 and 7.0 we get 3.85p...round it to say 4p.....Still a great return.
Like the thought process.
Asmalik, the figures for Atomic have been collated by the bb and are posted almost every 2nd day by Daceon. This gives an approximate sp value of 1.5p to 2.0p, when the deal goes through, which may be a conservative figure but was considered by the bb to be a reasonable figure.
I suspect though, you are asking what happens if we acquire 100%WI of the BFU & the CC fields ?
Suspect that the markets would then use the CPR production figures (as apposed to the more recent in-house simulator modelling figures). You could then obtain an approximate NPV 5 year forecast, using 2500bod as avg. for 2021, then 5000bod for 2022, & the CPR final figure of 7000bod for 2026. Putting in linear values for the intervening 2 years, then produces a net cash flow of $609M using $65/bbl. inputting the debt fig. of $26M, then gives an NPV of $587M (£420M). The market capital will be less than this as is dependent on several more metrics, but the unknown quantity ‘sentiment’ may then see it increase.
Say, 2p for Atomic’s 57%WI,
then the full 100%WI would come in c.3.5p to 4.0p when using 12B OS.
It is though always about the Story, which then brings significant value to the mc.
IF the production figures then matched the in-house estimates (a wee bit significantly higher than CPR) I suspect you would then perhaps see 7.0p being achieved on Atomic alone, as apposed to my current calcs for Atomic(57%WI) % OPL’s 15%WI, then having a combined sp c.7.0p
I hope this helps bud, but is I don’t see CNOOC or the NOP selling their WI in the BFU & CC.
It does though, perhaps give an approximate value, on what would be needed to realistically buy out the other 2 parties...
Charlie, if we did end up with 100% Atomic what would the mc be and SP?
Charlie
I follow your thought process.
Even 1p by next Friday close would be Awesome.
Some serious figures Charlie but nothing is off the table, once sentiment kicks in anything can happen.
If we get no news all week, what is the last hour on Friday going to be like?
Anyone looking in and thinking of getting into COPL, from experience I can tell you not to leave it until the last minute as you might not get in and will be paying a lot, lot higher.
Going to be a very interesting week ahead.
Looks like the seller in the background was a shorter or profit taker from lower levels.
Last trade delayed on Friday indicated that we should open up Monday @ 0.37p
Monday represents the first of the last 5 trading days before Atomic Deal is closed out on the 15th March.
As per my previous posts with calculations I expect this to tick up nicely.
My target for this week is still 0.6-1p this was always my target before news lands.
Not expecting anything on the audits I think it will be straight into the Atomic deal. I think the rocket on rocket for this will also be notification that we have acquired the additional percentage from the Chinese with part of the $20m additional finance.
Notification we hold 100% of Atomic.
Now if the Chinese are smart they will be buying back of the open market and as quickly as possible to re-establish their holding in Atomic through COPL.
Going to be a very interesting time going forward.
Increasing NPV with a very strong looking Oil price which is going from strength to strength.
Predictions for Monday - background seller to stop increased buying as PIs take up positions going to guess at a 10-25% rise
0.37p open
Monday 10% - 0.407
Tuesday 10% - 0.4477
Wednesday 10% - 0.492
Thursday 10 - 0.54
Friday - 0.595
So just under my target by Friday of achieving 10% ever day with a 0.37p open
Open 0.37
Monday 20% - 0.407
Tuesday 20% - 0.488
Wednesday 20% - 0.586
Thursday 20% - 0.70
Friday 20% - 0.84
Open at 0.37p and see 20% all next weeks hits that mid point of that estimate.
Open 0.37p
Monday 30% - 0.481
Tuesday 30% - 0.62
Wednesday 30% - 0.81
Thursday 30% - 1.05
Friday 30% - 1.37p
A little bit higher than expected by the time news drops but sentiment and positivity are a wonderful thing. 30% each day and hitting 1.37p would be awesome before news drops on Atomic
All to play for what price predictions to you think we could see A,B or C give you good idea what could happen in different percentage bands.