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I should have added CawCaw although it can be a little unnerving at the current SP, we have the stupendous result, when we drill there is oil down there.
I thought this weeks RNS was positive, saying, we are all friends, all talking and all confident of a result.
Drilling suits all parties and given that a Canada is ahead of us SP wise (for a change), and hasn’t retraced today to follow us, I expect a good week next week testing the 0.30’s again.
A+ Shaa. My philosophy exactly.
If I was a day trader wannabe I would be worried sick.
The only question I ask myself about COPL is "go out of business or drill?"
If the answer is still "drill", which it is, nothing else matters.
Shardster you are not alone there, lots and lots of shares with good potential saw red this week.
How I would love to be an MM, on a popular trades shares keep dropping the SP, filter out the weak to sell and then just wait to take the SP up (next week probably) and sell them at a higher SP.
Nothing has changed with COPL, only the extension will be slightly delayed and the current SP shouldn’t worry genuine LTH who are looking at the asset.
You only lose money on a share when you sell, technically if the SP was 0.15p or 0.45p, if you are waiting until first drill then it doesn’t make a difference.
R_Dunc, all very insightful. Your catalogue of clues and details is tremendous.
I definitely agree that your hypothesis is entirely possible. You are helping me and others to hold out hope for a timely spud.
CawCaw. I'm by no means saying I am correct, just throwing stones at the argument as I understand them to be different. Whether that is correct or not will come out in the wash.
I don't think the 2017 presentation should be interpreted as it has been. DT was first to highlight a '200 day lead time' on permits. Long lead items are also at 180 days. These may be critical path activities but what about the preparation, engagement with vendors, planning, specification, etc, etc. There is nothing holding back progress in certain areas, and that makes up a good chunk, if not a majority, of the lead time.
The comms from the company has never been great. That probably won't change. There is however snippets of evidence that despite not hearing if it, that progress is being made in the background. It's just that we are not kept up to date with it because there is no obligation to do so. Acceptance of the FDP was never RNSd separately, the PSC extension in 2018 was noted in a quarterly results only, and we were only alerted to a drilling contractor LOI in the 2019 quarterlies also. So, we are kept in the dark, which is frustrating, but clearly progress is being made. I think the same can be said just now. We will only know after the event.
What a depressing week on the shares all round, only share in my portfolio that is ok is a pharma company, hope Copl doesn’t fall much further as it’s painful to watch.
R_Dunc I do hope that you are right, and that Essar has quietly been actioning this in the background since at least June 4 2020 when the dispute was nominally resolved.
If they started on June 5, for example, that would give us an almost 4-month head start and allow for production by Q2 2021 according to our most recent gantt chart.
If we are extremely lucky and Art's 2017 timeline was completely incorrect and misinformed, maybe we could see production even earlier. Wouldn't that be wonderful.
As for whether all of this could have been happening in secret in the background, (complete with applications for drilling and environmental permits being filed on an expiring lease,) this also is possible.
Art not saying a word about any of it, even while he was busy shopping the company to lenders and doing placings? That's the part I can't get my head around.
Again, though, I hope that all of my baseless conjecture is wildly and utterly incorrect. I desperately hope so.
On the financials delay, as I understood it, this was requested by the auditor and not anything to do with Art or the company. Not sure it's fair to lump blame on the company for that.
CawCaw, a couple points that I'd argue against.
Essar have effectively been a silent (although disruptive) partner until very recently. To suggest the timelines have always been theirs on drilling, I think is incorrect. Even now, it is not clear what
the responsibilities are and even if the SHA has changed such. It was ShoreCan, on behalf of Essar Nigeria, that were responsible for contracting a service providers and rig. There is no indication that that has changed.
COPL has, most assuredly, a technical team that cover the technical aspects of the project and I expect this to cover permitting. It was one of the hotly debated topics on this board for so long - keeping the expertise, cutting overheads, etc. So that is the basis for the legwork and why the company ended up with no money - they had to pay their salaries.
I'd be very reluctant to base any predictions on that 2017 presentation. For one, its 3 years out of date. The permitting assumption is that it has had zero progress, which I'm confident is untrue. Further, it does not indicate critical path activities. As I mentioned previously, if drilling and environmental permits were awaiting PSC, wouldn't they have begun progress on that activity following the extension in 2018?
As we say in the Americas, "I gotta do me".
There is no "play" to my words. I am long since 2016 so there is no advantage to me to suggest that this might take awhile.
As for comparing "hints, allegations, and things left unsaid" from our shiny faced "issue a production forecast in 2018" CEO against an industry player with no motive one way or the other other than stating truth, I will take the industry player 6 days a week and twice on Sunday.
Not sure why Art is suddenly a beacon of truth and credibility, and the absence of any drilling schedule from him whatsoever (WTF) can be taken as proof that the drill ship is going to drop the bit in the water 10 seconds after the extension letter is received?
Everything about this project has taken a very long time. The COVID world takes longer to do things. Art has warned in long and flourishing sentences about COVID slowing everything down and meaning that everything will come later than expected.
What is the basis for assuming that Art has had a (heretofore secret) background team doing all the drilling legwork in advance of the extension and before we had any money??? (This would have had to have started in the spring, during COVID, and before the agreement with Essar???)
I can't see that being the case. COPL's style is to do things whenever they get around to them -- except placings of course.
They needed a 30-day extension to even publish the financials for crying out loud.
Afraid I have to agree with that! You do question some people's motives....
Anyway well played-you’ve made it a fab Friday on here for all invested-on mere third party expectation , assumption and conjecture presented as more or less indelible fact Mind the newly self appointed Company chair in the lack of actual input from our real ceo in the matter appears to concur so all good at the farm lol.Talk about putting off potential entrants here and frightening the nervy .Think I’d have sat on that until extension and knew a bit more officially.As I said didn’t need the likes of DT today -you invested boys did it for them whilst reducing the level of the next increase on any good news all on your own.I’ll lead the handclap from the rest of us invested here shall I.Not.This market takes no prisoners and was happy to mark us down anyway on probable licence extension delay.Well let’s push it down another 10 percent by discussing openly the probability of extended drill time and consequences of -even tho we really don’t know.At least it’s pragmatically out in the open.What absolute stupidity and financial harri kari.Have a good weekend all-the tide will turn again at some point but -well you couldn’t make it up when it comes to game awareness and savvy.
DMStew my thought is that offshore rigs are extremely long-lead items which operators need to keep as busy as possible.
If the drillers aren't doing their operations planning 1-5 years out, I will eat my hat.
Chances are that they keep tabs on every operator, and talk to them about the projects they have in the works. Including estimated scheduling.
It's not like these things are easy to move, and a driller would need to know his regional demand a long (long) ways out in order to craft a workable schedule for his assets.
No way do the drillers sit by the phone waiting for someone to ring them and ask "how soon can you get a rig to Nigeria as we want to drill ASAP." No way.
And no way do the operators like Essar do all their planning, then start calling drillers to see who wants the job.
I would guess that the drillers know as much or more about our schedule than Art does.
I bet they have been checking in every month or two since 2016 and know exactly, precisely when Essar's internal timelines show the possibility of drilling.
After all, the drillers will have stayed friends with Essar whereas Art ended up fighting them in court for a few years.
I am going with Q3 2021 until I hear a more plausible narrative.
COPL's own hyperoptimistic presentation lists "Drilling & Environmental Permits" alone as a 6-month process -- in a non-COVID world. Not sure how they could apply for these on a non-renewed lease, which is all they have at this point.
Hope I'm wrong and they drill this puppy at Christmas. But in the end, it's more valuable to have pragmatic expectations IMHO
Baserite thank you for the mention keep chatting about me your making me famous, my post wasn't made up, the information was from a company who provide information on oil rigs, contracts, oil companies all over the world, I shall continue to hold my shares here as I have for over four years now, and as stated continue to highlight news regarding the company whether with or against the grain.
You know you've upset someone when they make up childish names on a BB.
Totally agree. All we needed to know was in the RNS.
Maybe unintended consequences.
Was obvious to me before the market opened this morning that we would be marked down today after that veiled deramp by Stirr the pot or what ever its name is got the discussion board on elongated drill times which led others pondering and wondering about funding etc etc-you couldn’t make it up.Talk about shooting your investment in the foot, as If the market at this juncture needed another slant and reason to tick this down again ffs.They feed off the sentiment displayed on here-or perhaps some hadn’t noticed lol.Well Stirring Stewart( yeh that was his name) certainly got its way if already sold out and was hoping to create further uncertainty for the investment case and a cheaper re-entry aided and abetted by a few obvious apprentices for AM’s role I may add.Nothing from the company just some monthly industry leaflet ffs which provides possible drill scenarios.But it sure did work