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Id like to see the results of the PEA (2 mining scenarios) that we think is due by the end of this month or early next... should be some really good numbers in there..
There is plenty of dry powder to come this year but would be nice to see some of it being used so that it all feels that we are on track for financial close later this year and a fast-track mine build. Confirming last land ownership would do wonders along with some bonanza strikes on Cacao to give the market a feel that the 5m ounzes are in sight. Plenty to come but MC is steady and sure and that is the main thing. If the mine can be operational within 2 years that would also be great to know so we get the countdown in place and close the gap with Calibre valuation as we have better grade and more proved ounzes so there is plenty to play for. There is a chance the mine could be built sooner and that would really do wonders. A Mako or Calibre toll would send Condor into orbit as cashflow is what it is all about.
I hope Mark hasn’t gone on his summer holidays as we could clearly do with some news to help the sp this week!
Afraid so cambells. Personally as with crypto ,the time to buy is when its getting hammered. That was some drop to mid $1600s but recovered a reasonable ammount .Is there more to come though .
Personally going to add small ammounts in producers for the next while. Lowered my limit buy here. I am entering negative territory here now ,one possible top up mid 30s and thats it for me.
I guess it works for mellon and then the discounted raise for construction. He is likely to own a very large slice of cnr by sale or production time for not too much cash .
If bitcoin got hammered like gold the last week we would have the bitcoin is doomed posts . Gold will recover just like eth and btc have, hopefully as fast.
maybe an opportunity for directors to buy more cheap shares....if no news is coming ..lots of retail investors nervous about the gold price ..unless we get big news can see the drift continuing with lack of volume ...
Sp heading sub 40 p ,anyone wanting average down op, looks like it could be soon.
When I said a drop to 42p might be on the cards, ISAPENSION said I shouldn't say things like that because it upset him and he called me a pr 1 ck.
If just talking about 42p upset him, what has an actual drop to 40p done to him?
Anyone who gets upset by honest opinions shouldn't be in the stock market. Their mental health will suffer.
E l, thats fair enough. If cnr were the same size and debt free with $60 m in hand yes I agree m cap should be similar, however even when we get to production we will not be as big as calibre without the extra underground which will require further financing. I think your profit figures are flawed for your calcs but what is impossible to guage is the gold price when cnr finally achieve commercial production but it would be fair to say that calibre along with most producers will rise significantly if gold gets good legs over the medium /longterm so there lies the upside if cnr produces at a good gold price .
Debate can be useful but Agree, best to park up.
Good luck for yourself also E l.
Cf yahoo has calibre p/e at 5.27 presently .
Calibre are valued North of £300m. CNR are South of £60m. If we were already the same size, or close to being there, the MCaps would be closer also. Therein lies the opportunity.
I haven't the time or energy to debate this with you endlessly. I am content with my choices. Good luck with yours.
E l, calibre are expecting to produce 180k oz min this year . Their costs are high but reducing . They have 16 rigs working on about 80k m . We are a long way from being as big as them .
If you look at the link I posted to them it will give you a better idea of all the various expenses that come out before profit is determined to give a p/e . Cnr are listed in uk where I would imagine cnr also have to pay tax,exploration costs,impairments etc . I think you have made this mistake before with a comparison with aaz I think by not taking on board all of the costs before profit is declared . I would say studying the finals of calibre or similar company would give a reasonable idea of possible profit levels ,obviously when debt free.
As to debt free , also in response to simms ,there is no way that cnr will pay a dividend before being debt free which is one reason why it is important . The thought that in 3 years cnr will have produced at a commercial level for a year are rather hopeful imv simms .unfortunately most on here when making forward projections string many very positives together to make one very optimistic forcast. Another reason it is important is that should the gold price crash ,being debt free can be the difference between being profitable or loss making . Simms , imv there is no chance that cnr will be paying a dividend in three years time .I would be surprised if it is in five years time . I would look into how long after production generally miners start to pay a dividend and how many actually pay 8 pc in their first year . Good luck with that. Buy cey now if you want dividends.or aaz.
However, mc has stated his aim to progress in following years to £180 m and underground development ,so I dont see large dividends for a long while .
Totally agree that if gold price rockets over the longterm ,ie 5 years, then the upside could be considerable but presently gold has been in a 1 year pullback that few here anticipated . We are also heading into high inflation which will hopefully push gold up, but will also push fuel, power and labour costs up . Hopefully I am overly cautious but hasnt been the case for quite a long time .
A visit from the British Ambassador looks a very promising sign and should help any discussions with the Government.
should get news next week some studies must be complete now ..also noticed british ambassador paid a visit to la india last week ..mining is a slow buisness i for one am keeping the faith
Share price down, gold price down. Lots of great news to help the confirmation bias and plenty of 10 year hopes. I used to hope that we would see a fair value vs peers, a toll deal, a rising share price but sometimes it helps to take the opposite view. I’m not wedded to the company and really should look at the chart over 3, 6 months, 5 years. Lots of progress happens on the ground but the share price is going one way. Bury heads in the sand and say one day or take a look in another direction. Tell me I know nothing
The way i see if is that in 3 years, assuming we are in production within 2 years, our free cashflow could pay out up to 40p a share in a dividend (albeit dilution will probably impact a little) and while it will probably not be that high as miners tend to invest more and pay off debt i sense the likes of MC and JM leaning on the dividend route as they will surely both be offshore so tax free and apart from selling Condor the quickest way to release good levels of cash. I think you can then base the shareprice on yield. Lets says its 20p dividend in year 3 and yield of 8% then we should be around £2.50. obviously plenty of room for issues along the way but i also consider this fairly conservative as looking from DCF model with a 5m ounze and 25 year mine life and 200k ounzes you are looking a different ballpark. We are getting close to a decent re-rate just disappointed the toll is not part of the mix and Calibre will probably pay a price for that unfriendly kick in the back but in many ways we will have plenty of suitors at the right time and once we get closer to the £1.50 goldilocks share price when i think things will hot up on that front. Would still be nice to agree a toll as it just brings in cashflow sooner and we are not short of high grade ore. Plenty to go around.
Gold price in USD/oz: (input).
AISC in USD/oz: (input).
Production in thousand oz's: (input).
Gross profit in USD: (Gold price - AISC) * Production / 1000.
Tax in %: 30.
Tax in million USD: Gross profit * Tax in % / 100.
Net profit in million USD: Gross profit - tax.
Number of shares in circulation in millions: (input).
EPS in USD: Net profit / number of shares.
Anticipated P/E ratio: (input).
Resulting share price in USD: EPS * P/E ratio.
USD to GBP exchange rate: 0.720773.
Resulting share price in GBP: share price in USD * USD to GBP.
Resulting MCap in million GBP: number of shares * share price in GBP.
Again: just because it's maths, doesn't mean I intend it to be a precise prediction. I find it to be a useful tool though to sketch out what future scenarios may look like. As with any mathematical model, the resulting calculations are only as accurate as the numbers you put into it
first quarters production reports come out. It's not likely to double though is it (which would still give us profit, at today's gold price), and I can see it actually decreasing, certainly in the first couple of years, as MC has already been pretty clear in his intention to high-grade the first production ozs to bring forward cash-flow - a theme he talks about often.
Long story short, my model is not intended to be a penny-accurate, time-line-precise crystal ball. It can't predict the future, but it suffices to inform me that a £100m MCap for a company making £50-65m profit a year is unduely pessimistic.
A couple of upsides not considered in my model that could counter one or two imperfections in the prediction. First off, I belive we won't be paying tax for a while as we can write-off investments to date off against profits. My model takes off 30% corporation tax that I don't think would be payable for the first year or so.
And then perhaps most significantly, any valuation against what wil be our peer group of companies fail to take into account the possibility that the entire sector could be undervalued (I think it is - CNR is not my only goldie). In that case, you are comparing against *other undervalued companies*. Like you, I think Calibre is in a pretty good spot, and I would even consider investing, except for the fact that I'm already exposed to a junior miner operating in Nicaragua, and two does not feel like good risk management! But, according to Google, Calibre already have a 532m CAD MCap - about 305m GBP. So if Calibre are cheap at £305m, what does that imply for Condor?
A negative P/E means not making a profit. How can that be? Paying off debt, plus capital expenditure? If so, it's still investment into the company at the end of the day. That's the sort of thing Amazon did for years and it didn't harm them, though I appreciate it renders a P/E-based valuation tricky to say the least, as it did for Amazon.
Google tells me Calibre have a 532m CAD MCap - about 305m GBP. We could be as big, or bigger.
P/E ratio is typically quoted as TTM (trailing twelve months), yes. It's simply harder to find/calculate forward P/E ratios, as you usually have to do the legwork of predicting the future yourself, as it's hard to find someone to stick their neck out to do it for you! It can be done though, it's just a little more speculative. If any company looks to have a dramatically different year ahead than behind, then it actually makes more sense really to use a forward P/E ratio. We're all ultimately interested in future performance after all, not past performance! Worst case scenario, if the market is feeling sceptical, which I accept may be the case here, you may need to wait 12 months for those cashflows to actually materialise in the bank account before the market will give value to them. Still at that point, we'll have earned 50-odd million quid, all being well, being half the MCap if the company is still sitting on a £100M MCap!
My view is being debt-free for a company, as for an individual, is a nice goal, but not the be-all-and-end-all. Used wisely, debt acts as an enabler and a leveraging force. For example, not only could I not afford to buy my house outright, I'm also making house-price inflation on the whole house, even though I don't technically own all of it. Same with CNR's mine. Many wealthy individuals and plenty of businesses use debt to be able to do more things than they could before, or to leverage their wealth effectively. Warren Buffett bought insurance companies to be able to access their large pool of funds needed for future payouts, in order to invest with those funds. Not quite the same thing, but you get my drift.
Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. One can attempt to calculate the profit of a full years production, based on the gold price, AISC, oz mined, minus tax and covert to GBP. Then divide by however many shares you think will be in circulation at that point. Like you, I've gone with a round-figure 200m shares. If you're interested in my precise methodology, I can follow up this post with one with the full details. I'm sure you'll pick holes in it, but then if it can't stand up to scrutiny, then perhaps it should be criticised!
Agree AISC could vary, but probably only by a little bit. I'm just going off the $700/oz figure essentially from the PFS. A new PFS and potentially BFS would give you, me and the rest of the market a bit more confidence in those numbers, but we'll only really know once the fir
E l , pur gold currently operating on -18.5. Which illustrates the problem with trying to use p/e ratios for companies at different stages. Calibre are debt free ,$60m cash in hand, with expected full year production of 180 k oz with more coming on stream . P/e ratio also is worked from the previous years earnings ,something I think you have not taken into account in previous exchange using shg and aaz For comparison you tend to compare your guestimate for cnr in the future to an example based on a previous years earnings. Particularly problematic as covid affected many producers including calibre last year. cnr are years away from being able to be compared with a similar ratio to calibre or any other debt free producer although we have a m cap not too far behind hum. Calibre also have a history of achieving goals ahead of schedule whereas cnr dont produce a schedule as such just vague timelines and generally miss those.
Although on the face of it our projected aisc are a lot lower than calibres present figures, it should be borne in mind that they are projected and it is not unusual for them to be missed.
It is hard to see how you can come up with an accurate earnings per share to give a p/e .interested to know how you arrive at your figures .
Heres calibres latest figures
Five years time, debt free and a good gold price , then we could be cooking .
EL, yep, those numbers look sound. Calibre's recent p/e ratio is 6.24.
Correction £3 at 117k oz and 7 P/E ratio should be £2.48 - looked at the dollar valuation not GBP previously! Doh! Everything else accurate, I think.
Yv , well shg high grade kenya aquisition is a good example I think. Yes I know what you guys mean about being dogedly determined to see it out .I keep a core holding but trade in and out at times depending on if I see a good alternative and buy back in here from profits elsewhere .just my way of evening up the game . Works for me but obviously we all have different investment strategies but as mr lion pointed out a while ago ,I am starting to get on a bit in years now and want reward while I can make good use of it.
Real no havnt .might take a peek again . Only so many balls you can keep your eye on. I am probably over extended already and miss out on news on some . Thats why I like crypto . There's not too much news to watch out for individually just watch the trend and take your chances on buy or sell .
Anyhow ,good luck all with your holds ,sells etc and may your god go with ya.
What a lot of whinging. Always happens when the share price is down. It's a bit of an emotional reaction TBH, for most, and that includes some who like to think of themselves as "realistic".
£100m MCap for around 50p SP (at around 200m shares, which I agree is probably the ballpark) is a P/E ratio of around 1.8, at 94k oz (approx production before upgraded sag mill motor, at gold price of $1800/oz) and 1.4 at 117k oz (approx production after upgrading SAG mill motor). Suffice to say, even for a single asset company in a frontier jurisdiction, that is a rather undemanding valuation! A more "realistic" P/E ratio might be, let's say 7, which get's you £2 a share at 94k oz and £3+ at 117k oz. And that's at around current gold price.
If you think otherwise 'cos you've found a producer that you think is similarly beaten-down, then look at how much profit they're actually making. Production oz don't count for anything if AISC is high. Also, check Life Of Mine (LOM) - if there's only a couple years ore left then naturally the market will mark them down for that. That's not an issue with CNR of course. 5m oz (c'mon - we all know it's there, just needs proving up) will last 25 years at 200k oz a year!
If you can actually find me a producer trading at a P/E ratio of 1.8 or less (and with half-decent remaining LOM) then I'll be buying on Monday, 'cos that's one hell of a good deal!
Isa, mellon has paid £1.60 many moons ago . Ifc sold at rather a large loss . No guarantees for anybody. However they do have the benefit of cheap warrants to make averaging down a bit easier than for mere peasants like myself and the ability to write off any losses .
Imv the market knows there is going to be a discounted cash raise in the next 9 months and we are unlikely to see a any good sp movements until that happens . Hope I am wrong on that one as it means heavier dilution.
Isa, I wouldn't say Mark and Jim are wrong but I do think there are investors out there that just don't want to be sat waiting and waiting for this to start moving. Volume has always been an issue in this share which tells me either not enough has been done to attract new investors or that there are a lot of shares held tightly.
I am willing to sit this one out. My concern is what will the shareprice be when we raise equity for construction and ongoing capital. I hope the drilling on cacao will be finished and announced to the market prior to the fundraise. I also hope an rns comes out that we have purchased all the land prior to a fundraise.