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As i understand RothRock Condor was and potentially still is under NDA and where Condor provided rock samples. Therefore there was discussions being had. I suspect the Calibre intervention has rather stolen some thunder but i guess Calibre will be taking over a loss making mine and will either pull rabbits out of the hat to change that or if they are under pressure from shareholders and bond holders to keep up repayments Calibre might well look to bus in some ore. we will wait and see but i agree that toll mining with Calibre is less likely than perhaps it might have seemed 6 months ago with B2Gold. I do think Randy is not exactly a silent shareholder so he will be pivotal to assisting Condor realise some of their toll options and probably play a major part in the mine build. He was a very good strategic investor and i think there is a lot more to come. to have some of the worlds best investors on board shows MC is highly credible. Ross and Jim all invested in the last round to keep their same investment holding. I think MC is doing a fair strategy in that he could go and get full funding for the mine but at an big dilution. He is first exploring options to bring Condor into a fair valuation before doing that and looking for early cashflow. the feeder pits must get permitted and i suspect they are pivotal to any toll deal but securing that will improve the stock. The land acquisition completion will also be a pivotal moment as you cant announce any mine plan until we know all land is owned. Personally i can only see positive news coming our way as at this price Condor is priced to fail and Gold is hardly going to fall as it looks the world is becoming more destabilised by the day and the value of global currencies are almost the emperors new clothes with printing presses going non stop for 8 years pumping cash into the banks. sure there is disappointment we are not further or had any big breaks so far but it is not that we are standing still either. Condor is still on the slow boat to production. If MC can get the valuation to where it should be today, maybe £50m then it makes it more likely a buyer might convince its shareholders £100m is a good deal pre production. We know post mine build the company would be probably 5 times this valuation based on its AISC of $700 and the mine would pay back the purchase in 5 years. With a district of probably may more than 5m this mine will go for decades so its a long-term play in a mining friendly country.
Its a lot easier to permit an already producing mine fyi. Spoken to key insiders and the words were "dont count on any type of combination". While MC is in the dark in lala land thinking he can get a toll deal. I really believed him nearly a year ago when he mentioned possible tolling, but for him to continue to mislead investors now re tollmining is garbage. Calibre has NO interest. Normally CEOs dont release this type of information to the public until there is something definitive. That's the normal practice. In this case the point was to try to PUMP share price which failed miserably. the constant mention of 5m oz district again misleading. Do it dont say it. Calibre said they will be patient with any M&A. It means the same as what Clive Johnson said "NO CRAZY PREMIUMS".
ELion - B2 sold their mines because they've been told to divest Nica assets to prepare for a takeover/merger. My guess is an anglogold type or another mid tier combo. Insiders agree with me on it. Within the Canadian mining circle MC has a bad rep thats all i can say. People dont want to deal with him. He's been trying to extract the highest price for this asset with no success bc he cant let go and too unrealistic. I waited patiently for the permit of the mine only to see the stock do nothing and then IFC sells out. Gold price already moved ! CNR barely moved. Only Jim Mellon buying - nobody else. Something obviously going on behind the scenes. Said this many times MC isnt going to build this mine. 24 months to production is misleading again by the CEO.
My own assessment of situation: Only way moving forward is massive dilution, maybe hope that Calibre fails in their big drill program only then they might come to the table for toll mining, or hope the gold price goes to the moon. dont like the options. A coupe was attempted and turmoil created. these things happen - just have to live with it and cut loss sometimes. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. I'll Live with it.
Does anybody know if RANDY MARTIN has the capacity source for toll mining in the area? I was hoping MC would mention something in relation to the new shareholder, but nothing.
Just in addition, I found this B2 report on La Libertad from March 2015:
https://www.miningdataonline.com/reports/LaLibertad_TechnicalReport_03272015.pdf
"The mining permit for Jabali Antenna is expected to be granted in the second quarter of 2015"... oops! Permits can be a tricky business as we all know.
Awax, I did glance through the calibre presentation. The part that stood out to me was that on page 11 they claim they can bring down El Limon's AISC from US$1567 to US$645... err, wow! That's a remarkable achievement, I wonder how they plan on doing that exactly, especially considering that in October last year, B2Gold conducted a life of mine study for El Limon concluding that it would cost $35m to extend El Limon’s life-of-mine to 21 years, bringing AISC down to US$900 per oz (excluding capital costs):
https://www.mining.com/b2gold-completes-expansion-study-el-limon-mine/
This study includes the El Limon central zone discovery (5.13m tonnes @ 4.92gpt = 812,000oz), so I'm not sure where Calibre are getting such optimistic figures from... Also, has the pit even been permitted? What about Jabali Antenna? I'm not up to date with these, but this article from April this year reckons "Production from the new Jabali Antenna pit is expected to start in the second half of 2019, subject to the successful completion of B2Gold’s resettlement activities and receipt of the Jabali Antenna openpit permit":
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ajority-of-b2golds-mines-outperform-guidance-in-strong-first-quarter-2019-04-18
We all know how long the permitting process can take in Nic. Now I suppose it's possible that Calibre can achieve everything they are promising but it looks crazy optimistic to me. Naturally I wish them luck, and hope that Condor and Calibre can work together for mutual benefit and to benefit the people of Nicaragua.
Good points nero…...as I posted, I think that Calibre have paid over the odds at this stage for El Limon/La Libertad. They have much drilling to do and quite some time before they can bring these mills to an attractive AISC. Don't know whether you have looked at the presentation from the gold show, but I think his slide/numbers have been pencilled in by a numbers man to sell this to his shareholders. Much of course depends on how the price of Au moves in coming year.
Agreed EL, I was a little surprised that despite recently sounding bullish on condor, RR suddenly decides to dump half his shares, yet nothing has fundamentally changed during that time. My initial thought was that simply he bought in hoping for a re-rate based on a quick toll deal, and perhaps since that hasn't materialised as quickly as he liked it was time to move on. Fair enough.
Even if what RR says is true and Calibre plan to spend even more cash with a huge drill program, it will still be years of exploration and permitting before even a piece of that ore can be fed into El Limon or La Libertad, and until then those mines are losing money. The real question is, why wouldn't Calibre agree to a toll mining deal? If they think to acquire Condor in a distressed sale then surely that ship has sailed, Condor has access to financing that have kept it afloat throughout the entirety of this bear market when many other gold explorers have folded, and not only have Condor survived but have managed to expand and derisk the project significantly. It seems irrational that Calibre would be that malicious or foolish for no real benefit.
Whilst either of these mines have capacity, it seems mutually beneficial for Condor and Calibre to agree a toll mining deal. But regardless of that, progress on building the mine at La India will continue. MC might not be a big name in the gold community but he has serious players backing him, not least of which is the government of Nicaragua who want the mine built.
Respect your views RR - you seem to know what you're talking about, however a few responses...
- I don't know why B2 sold their mines, could have been any number of reasons, but seems strange that B2 were happy to offload them if there was significant value just about to be unlocked.
- Prior Calibre shareholders have been massively diluted to raise the funds for the purchase.
- MC did mention 24 months to production in the last presentation. I'd love for him to expand on that a little, since we don't yet have a concrete date for construction start.
- Toll mining deal is still just speculation, agreed, but we don't need or want a "premium" from Calibre, just a fair deal.
- Not sure what you mean by "the way MC operates". Perhaps you mean a touch too much speculation? Anything else?
- What new info are you unhappy with? Toll mining? Small-scale production? None of that seems too dreadful to me?
- Our MCap. is low, for various reasons. That on it's own makes fundraising tough. As mentioned Calibre had massive dilution to get to where they are now. Bluestone Resources's MCap is nearly 3 times ours (if I've done my sums right). It's not all about the management.
- Ross Beaty has plenty to keep him busy. His prescence here is a plus for sure, but I'm not suprised if he's got bigger fish to fry. I don't think you can read too much into that.
Just one more note to MC bc i know he's listening. Ross Beaty could have raised the $100 million to fund the purchase of B2 mines no problem IF he wanted to.
Ryan King is a solid exec and he is only the VP corporate development. The top Management team is really high echelon.
If you study their track record at Newmarket, they created serious value by increasing resource at an already producing mine that "seemed" exhausted. same as what they intend to do here. It's about immediate increase in cashflow. Not 2 years out 4 years out. Immediate. That's what creates real value in shareprice. They are going to start an aggressive 45,000m drill program to expand their resources and improve aisc. Their focus will be then to merge with an already producing company somewhere in Latin America (probably outside of Nicaragua) to form an even larger producing company probably targeting high mid tier producer.
For MC to still talk toll refininig with B2 illustrates to me that he hasnt had a meeting with Calibre yet. They wont give him a premium and they are well aware of the way MC operates. He is suprised that they raised the funds to close. Honestly wouldnt be suprised if IFC (or associated capital source) helped fund their closing. MC's office being at St. James area should KNOW what IFC as a shareholder means in the mining game. I hear IFC is a candidate to fund Lundin's Bluestone Resources mine construction in Guatemala (Keep your eye on this one and compare the progress of Bluestone vs Condor bc they are currently at the same place right now - permitted waiting for financing). Pierre Lassonde said best: The money goes to the people to build mines that have done it in the past. It was nice MC listened to this chatroom and finally updated his presentation slides.
Not too pleased with all the new info. sold half my entire position (must thank Jim Mellon for some support in the recent share price) and hoping for a break even for the remaining half. Really do hope Randy Martin can pull a rabbit out of the hat - dont know too much on the guy. Luckily I was in very early at Osino Resources to more than make up for this loss.