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If you had posted that timeline a year ago or two you would have had steam coming out of a few ears lol.
Pretty realistic imv. I think chances of a "regime change" is very low. More chance of deteriorating relations with usa and more Russian involvement. unless usa invade. Pretty unlikely imv but it is a mad world right now. Ortega and his witchfinder general have to pop their clogs one day though but doesnt guarantee anything since he has a fair smattering of progeny esconsed in the aparatus, and there has been a large exodus over the last 4 years. mc desribed a meeting with ortegas son at some point in rns long time back and if book 5 is to be believed a son holds some cnr shares.
Think a jv or strategic investment is very well possible.
Guess u can never say never on a toll but would have thought an agreement would have surfaced by now if it was going to.
Worth a punt under todays price. Little bit at a time for me to spread the load.30 p was my limit previously and 25 is the new limit for me. I think I will be able to add lower yet tbh. Wouldnt mind an average around 25 p. I think that is decent risk reward although I a, not expecting or needing as high an exit price as some anywhere above 35 p wouldnt be a calamity.
You would have to think that it would be in MC and CNRs best interest to have the BFS released prior to these two events in early-mid September.. Generate the most interest and talk to the numbers with potential funders of the project etc.
I think the order of play for next year or so will be:
BFS released Sep 2022
Financing completed Dec 2022
EPCM tender agreed - Feb 2023
Appoint a COO - Feb/March 2023
Start construction.. April 2023
But along the way, there may be a few curve balls thrown in, such as
Toll milling agreement with Calibre (long overdue but still possible)
A JV/Earn In agreement with a gold/copper focused major (Rio Tinto etc)
Nicaragua regime change or political upheaval to deal with..
888, I would concur that the gold space and indeed most investments have been hammered over the last 6 months including crypto. What I would say is cnr share price was holding up pretty well in the 30-36 p range but took a big hit when the bfs was pushed on and the placing I said was coming arrived. What could he have done? Well the obvious answer is, finally deliver the long delayed bfs before another raise. The sp has done the same as after the previous raise, dropped below it.
E l, if we look at the bottom of the gold price aug 2018 cnr sp from memory was around 40 p some six months later cnr sp was around 18p. Cnr didnt rise in tandem with the rise in gold price . That is why I suspect a similar scenario may happen. Of course we may have good news to lift the sp but it is not looking imminent to me . I suspect I will again be able to buy considerably lower in the not too distant future.
Did Mark think it likely that Cacao could initially be shown to hold in excess of one million ounces? I think someone said it was located just 4km from permitted plant at La India?
C f, fair enough. Personally I dont think that after 3 quarters of missed timescales it is acceptable that we have no real explaination for it after being told it was two weeks away. They dont have disclose price sensitive information but they can outline the reason . I dont write off the possibility of it having a positive connotation but history makes me fairly cautious.
When would we expect the cores to be analysed and results known from Cacao?
ICB it has gone from bad to worse, if Mark was at school his performance over the last 5 years has been mistake after mistake, delay after delay resulting in a E-.
Whether it be that he strung along by more experienced negotiators, total changes to relocation plans pushing us back years, offering cheap warrants to so called partners that have no intetrest in CNR, promises and promises, delays and delays.................and share dilution blowing us out of the water
ICB888 thankfully I traded along the way however anyone who has not traded has been left holding the baby............whilst Mark has been rewarded with a substantial salary with no KPI's being achieved.........
Over to you ICB, how can you be positive???
Isa pension, could you please tell us what Mark should be doing to stop the drop bearing in mind that all gold companies are experiencing similar drops as evidenced by their very similar share price graphs look at GGP just as an example.
Rampers flooding the board to cover up the slump in the sp.
Don't worry - 60p soon - ISAPENSION said so. Ha!
Mark is doing nothing to stop the drop, my advice is don't invest anything you are not prepared to lose..............I learned the hard way with Xcite Energy
Yes I have turned negative but equally glad I have sold the lions share of my holding now!
Seingred, unfortunately I can't disclose what he has said. There's obviously only so much he can say.
Latest geo politicals.
Well, peeps immediately want to make the case that a bfs that missed its q4 2021 timescale , q1 2021 timescale and now q2 2022 must infer a good scenario. Call me a de ramper but it makes me wary and reminds me that mc didnt disclose the protests against relocation and it was left to mellons ex partner in crime tw to inform us. Dont get me wrong , it may be good news but historically timescales have been very loose guesswork and there could be a less blue sky reason. Could just be everything is as always much more slow and expensive than mc guesswork . Mellon said 100 k pa production this year and 150 k oz priduction next year . He is a company director .
c f, can I ask what he has told you that explains why the bfs has continually been moved back a quarter since q4 last year?
Yes CF I message him now and again.
Just wondering, does anyone else on this BB have direct comms with MC?
If I recall correctly Mark stopped some of the drilling because no matter how much gold was found it was ignored by the market in terms of the sp. He therefore decided it didn’t make sense to spend more money for no return in getting the sp up , which was the aim so further funds could be raised at a higher price with less dilution.
Educated speculations I would say. How do we get within weeks of the FS and then suddenly it’s months? It’s not a secret that there’s been interesting visits to the data room. Nic needs the tax revenue and will be looking favourably at big investors, who in turn will need good grades and economies of scale in country. We know a lot about La India, Mestiza etc but to justify the premium to shareholders ‘data roomers’ would like a little more on Cacao? 3500 on 5000 could already be awaiting results, or more interesting is they may go further than the 5000 to squeeze out more juice from the sp. I’m at a point now where I’m looking to this thinking the risk/reward here is better than I have elsewhere so may switch funds. 25p is increasingly tempting.
I get where you are coming from EL, he obviously doesn't disclose sensitive information, however he does do his best to answer my questions. Often a lot of what he does say is helpful in making me understand certain aspects of the situation, like why the bfs is delayed etc.
I haven't. Maybe I should, although my thinking is, he couldn't say anything that the market doesn't already know, so I'm not sure what he could say that would satisfy me.
EL, have you emailed MC recently? I had some correspondence around May time and without going into too much detail, he does tend to reply promptly and honestly and I applaud that considering that I am just a small PI.
I don't think you need to worry about a low takeover price cf. MC, JM and many LTHs will not sell at 31p, or even 50p. The market will turn at some point, and we could be 50p again without lifting a finger, so why sell for less than that? Once it's gone, it's gone forever, no matter what the market does. We do have some agency in all this.
The bigger question, as Seingred says, is whether anyone will offer us a price that MC, JM and LTHs *would* go for, and that is indeed an open question.
Awax's suggestion intrigue me because there are few other explanations I can see for the 6-month or so delay in BFS. It's either a colossal f-up on someone's part (not necessarily MC's, but the buck does stop with him at the end of the day), or there's things going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. Things that are serious enough for MC to take the time, expense and trouble to explore thoroughly. We know that both MC and JM are not born-and-bred mining execs and would sell for the right price. If someone serious (and Rio is the only name that comes to mind at the moment), were to show a serious interest, he'd have to follow it up.
As far as finance goes, I'm far from an expert, but I understand the industry standard deal is 70% debt, 30% equity. Part of my reason for investing here is that MC's finance background and JM's contacts and clout will allow for a deal significantly better (less dilutive) than that. I don't know the details of Rio2's deal, but I'd hope that MC could equal it. I could be right or I could be wrong, but that's part of my investment case.
More generally, I'm getting the distinct impression that MC is really not that interested in PIs! Can't say I blame him either, and I am one! Perhaps understandably he seems more orientated towards potential IIs or even prospective purchasers, which leaves us lot rather in the dark most of the time. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, as always.
Yeah, this drill program is not new as ICB stated on the RNS dated last year. 3500m was completed last year yet we are still waiting to hear about 1500m of drilling. Are they trying to cherry pick their spots to get the best out of the last 1500m. Did we not have to money? If you plan a 5000m drill program over a year ago, would you expect to have the money to pay for it at the time of signing the contract?
EL, I'm all for getting the best price possible here. Unfortunately with the current market and our sp, I just can't see selling the company now as being a wise choice. Yes, we could have 5m+ oz, but even a 100% from here only gives us 50p. We've not seen a decent sustained rally for over a year now.
What we need is a good debt/equity split, like rio2 of 85/15. 60/40 debt to equity is just not good enough and will destroy us with dilution. We are already at 160m, even at 15% equity gives around £18-20m and at 25p let's say, that adds 80m shares and takes us to 240m ish shares.
If what Awax suggests is correct (do you have "sources" Awax or are you just speculating like the rest of us?), then we may not need to officially prove up a large resource. One or two wide, high-grade intercepts may be sufficient to convince a hypothetical buyer that we're worth the price.
We probably need to put a lot more drilling on cacao to get a reasonable reserve. We've only 1500m left of drilling which won't take us far if the resource is 100-200m below ground.