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Agree seingred, I can see a higher trading range come September and onwards with hopefully the newsflow expected. IMO
Nowl, amongst mr reds waffle was a comment to keep an eye on omi lol. Up over 70% in just over a week, nice!
Buying now in cnr could well give a nice short term profit imv.
My goodness, just look at all that waffle from Seingred (his Sat post, 20th August). He's been spouting that sort of rubbish all the way down. Who wastes their time reading his posts? They are as useless as those from ISAPENSION.
C f, yes you do reasoned research which I appreciate using logic. Over on omi Nobody wants to use similar examples to justify what I have thought were over optimistic valuations apart from quoting ggp which is tenuous imv. Cnr good for a quick 20% gain here Though I think which if you buy 25 p or lower is only 30 p. Depending on news over the next 6 months I can see a run to 50 p which is decent if you are buying in now. I just cannot see the justification for the £1 plus predictions, unless the parabolic gold price finally appears. Always possible! Perhaps , if everything goes nicely, unfortunately in life very little goes to plan as witnessed here to date. I will hold some to the end but they will be free shares.
Good luck here and elsewhere.
Agree seingred, just trying to find companies at a similar stage to us. Calibre look cheap.
there is a good risk reward here from 23 p to get to perhaps 30 p before news and possibly 40 s when funded imv As far as massively undervalued , I refer back to obvious comparison calibre . Currently £300m m cap , producing circa 250 k oz pa , 3 plants, $90 m in cash and about 18 rigs turning. Strip out cash £210 m .
Mc agrees with mr reds much derided forcast of first production in 2024 which means after ramp up period commercial production will be 2025. If cnr are to pay off debt in 1 year I dont see major exploration until 2026. Proving up 7 m oz will take an age . Mc has been talking 5 million ounces for many years now. And what about those massive dividends that peeps were talking about.
There are presently 160 m shares , I believe another raise is possible before funding then a further chunk for construction. Imv there will be a minimum of 200 m shares this time next year and quite likely more. If we accept 200 m shares and a £1 share price that would value condor, still a few years from producing 100 k oz and in debt at a similar price to calibre. Sounds pretty unlikely to me . Yes gold price may rise significantly but who can bet for 2025 .
The predicted 2500-5000 usd gold price is yet to materialise but aisc are rising fast.
Personally I am hoping for a decent re rate over next 6 months into the 40-50 p range and will be completely de risking and just hold free shares. Still big question marks regarding politicals in Nicaragua. Tester I dont see civil unrest happening just further repression, further us sanctions and Russia having a closer relationship.
Cf yes nice month in wsbn , one of my main early stagers. Australia a nice safe jurisdiction and strong market a good place to invest and has a considerable valuation premium. On the omi board they keep comparing omi to ggp purely because of the backing of majors but you cannot compare the two. Omi worth keeping an eye on over the next month or so though. Good day friday and more to come possibly. As always I will trade on the spikes with a portion. Over on omi they are lamenting the 40 p sp two years ago but mostly stuck with sit on your hands routine.
Still dont understand why peeps dont seem to be adding in low 20 s , cant all want to be clandestine buyers surely ? Not good for sentiment guys. I have added a few and I am a de ramper lol.
Awax, yeah, I'm not comparing cnr to ggp, just saying we are massively undervalued. They only have 30% of the 6.5m though.
To be fair cf GGP have found 6.5m oz of gold and have an operating plant nearby in Oz. We hope to have 7m oz of gold, are in Nic and yet even to have funding for a plant? Apples and pears? However, I agree that once the FS is announced, or perhaps in the days before, we'll see positive moves here.
If Rio Tinto or anyone else who have been looking in thr dataroom bought in that would help setup Condor closer to GGP as a major would draw in a lot of investors and could minimise dilution. i suspect part of delay with FS is backroom discussions but it seems clear that MC wants minimum dilution and to get operating asap. Certainly the current valuation is not even close to billions of gold we will be extracting in the not too distant future and with a low AISC due to ease of access to open pit. We cannot but get a decent re-rate once FS and financing is resolved as your paying $30 today for $1800 gold so onces costs come out still a massive mismatch. We should be $100 an ounce today and towards production significantly more if gold prices stay where they are or more likely rise significantly.
CCC, it's the market valuing the company based on the current shareprice. I would love it to rerate back to 50p post FS.
Agree that we are nearly 100% derisked which should see improved investor confidence. Sad thing is, daily trading has been rubbish for a long time now. Less than 20 trades a day. Look at wishbone yesterday, something like 200 daily trades.
On another note, GGP are valued at circa £500m and own 30% of 6.5m gold equivalent ounces which gives 1.95m oz. Ridiculously overpriced at present. If we are talking 7m oz here, I want MC to do his upmost to keep this project and get max debt and little equity.
Actually Barnard, once drilling can be funded from operations then they will have as many rigs as possible going. They know where to drill due to the extensive amount of geophysics and soil sampling already done. If the gold is there it won't take that long to prove up I don't think.
The drilling to prove upto 7m Oz would take years IMO..Condor has never been a company to throw 5 rigs on and drill the arse out of it,it's always a slow process with the market not reacting to results..a strange share to invest in this one..very slow but great potential. I can see a bit of a sell off after the recent gains( just because that's how the market seems to go)..but come autumn and FS maybe a higher range between 30-40p..all my opinion but long term it's a winner just a very slow burner. GLA.
" 1) Sell once the FS study comes out but likely the sale price will not fully reflect the potential for the district.
2) Raise finance and risk further dilution.
CF, you are valuing the company at about 55mil market cap at 40% increase, i think you are totally underestimating the true value as things currently stand.
Regarding further dilution, i suggest you understand the long ( frustratingly long ) course Mark has taken to prove and de risk the project as much as he can to get the best and most attractive finance deal, with minimal dilution.
Mark has got the company in the best possible position and i wholly expect to see the benefits in the coming weeks/months.
I am sure there maybe the odd bump or two in the next couple of years, but my conservative exit point would be around the £1.50 area, if the company continues as it is, however if Marks comments regarding a 7 mil oz become a real possibility, you can double my figure, as long as gold markets behaves itself.
Which option does he go for?
1) Sell once the FS study comes out but likely the sale price will not fully reflect the potential for the district.
2) Raise finance and risk further dilution.
Pros and cons to each. A buyer is unlikely to pay more than a 40% premium to the share price. I would hope the sp would move up as more interest is gained once the FS is released but recent experience of other FS studies being released suggests not. With such a detailed FS and strong gold price, maybe lenders would lend more for a better debt:equity split.