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Hi cf, I have slightly different recollection, but I was a de ramper for saying we would need updated pfs and a bfs which made certain posters over optimistic timelines unlikely. Anyhow result the same. Over optimistic timeframe and more cash needed.
Absolutely agree , toll is key now imo. A toll agreed prior to raise is what we want.
Agree we will need all land imv before finance so delays are possible there.
Mc has generally stated that construction would be 18-24 months , recently 12-18 months presumably because we have a mill and done some prep work . The only guessing game has been when would the project be ready for finance . I have always found adding some extra time onto the vague timelines best. .mr lion curve is very possible so now the important thing is what price the curve starts at .25 p ,30 p ,40 p 50 p £1 etc . Take your pick at guessing that one folks but the sp at funding is the all important one for lthers .New arrivals it is a different scenario. Newbies may well see a double bagger as good from whatever level they buy whereas many here have stated they want £ sss to make their 10 or 15 year wait worth it.
Icb, I have been stating for ages that production is unlikely till 2024 , mc has come pretty close to confirming that in this webinar despite our director mellon making noises about 100 k oz production . I said a 36 p raise as an estimate before you or anybody else even mentioned a raise.
If you are going to call me a de ramper, please could you give the specific things I have posted that are either untrue or de ramping .It would not be hard for me to point to extremely over optimistic forcasts by most posters here for years .
If you disagree with any of my points you could of course offer an alternative . Like perhaps when do you expect production . I mention the toll deal as I always have as very positive if it happens .mc mentioned it in a way as to infer there is something happening. . I have never said a toll deal wont happen ,I dont know but have continually said that it is a very desireable situation whereas many have said mellon isnt a supporter of the idea. Stop trying to twist things !
By the by I guess you are one of these guys who believes in de rampers but not rampers lol. People need to be much more careful of rampers imo ,its much easier to get talked into buying than selling .
I certainly don’t want to disappoint Seingred and therefore call him out as deramper in chief for his takeaways from the webinar. I think we are all capable of listening to it ourselves and forming our own opinion. Seingred has as expected gone through now irrelevant history to set out a negative view for Condor to discourage buying anytime soon.
He leaves until the end the key new information to takeaway from the webinar which he briefly mentions would change his negative scenario. This of course is toll milling which would blow his negativity out of the water.
This is my takeaway from the webinar:
Toll milling is mentioned in the presentation at least twice and then when Mark is questioned about it, he says he is personally very keen on Toll Milling. He makes it clear most tasks that needed to be completed prior to toll milling have been completed. When the FS is done they would be clear to go if they have a partner. Mark says he is limited about what he can say about Calibre for commercial reasons but it is a very good indication that he is talking to Calibre. Remember where the new CFO used to work!
I think Mark will leave no stone unturned in his efforts to secure a Toll deal in the very near future. It is in his best interests as a shareholder as it is for other shareholders to minimise future dilution.
Seingred, my feeling was back in the day when MC said unlikely to need a fs for finance was because he was pursuing a toll deal which would have made it easier to get finance.
I too think construction is going to take longer than expected. I reckon we'll probably start building end H1 and then 12-18 months build.
With these timeframes, a toll deal is vital and MC needs to deliver this for the company and its shareholders.
Regarding finance, we will need to be 100% derisked, and that includes the land. So I suspect the land to be bought before financing.
I just pray a toll deal came be agreed early Q1 to see a jump in the shareprice prior to the construction fundraise.
Just given webinar a watch.
My takeaways.
Finance hopefully first half .previously q1. Yes doesnt preclude q1.
Didnt rule out another placing before the big one. This I mentioned recently .
Construction, 12-18 months. Yet still some here mention production next year. So 2024 for production as I said for ages the most likely timescale.
Takes ownership of the mistake of re settlement .
Mentions the effect of 2018 protests on sp and presently .Something that Nero has previously agued against but today seems to accept when coming from mc .
The need for bfs for financing . A number of years ago when I questioned the timescales and citing the needed for updated pfs and bfs we were told by mc and nero that it wasnt needed . Now it is absolutely essential for funding and industry wide expectation .Slightly strange volte face but not unsurprising.
Land clearance and land purchase listed as achievements for this year . However these were listed as aims during financing in early 2020 for last year and still 3 % left near the end of 2021. Yes he continues to state it is a non issue,why then do we need to consider the possibility of compulsory purchase and how long may that take ? Is this another requisite for financing?
Chances of another raise towards end of q1 very real imv .
The comment re toll milling is interesting and the unknown in the list . If it comes off successfully it changes the scenario, particularly for share holders . Otherwise the market knows right now that there is a big raise sometime next year and possibly another interim one which is likely to weigh on the sp.
Of course icb will shout d r as usual but these are all facts from mc own information. Dyor obvs and good luck.
Notice how Noel didn't reply to my previous question, maybe he missed it. I'll repeat here so he can give us the answers he sees so clearly:
1. At what price do we bottom here, and when?
2. What will the share price be at the end of Q1 2021 with BFS released and mine construction financing announced?
Noel is God. I'm pretty sure he can fly as well.
You’re so clever mate it must be great being you, I’m so jealous! Are you really good looking as well?
SP down again. I told you.
A really good Webinar, all should watch this, Mark gave a really good account of the company and where it is at the moment in time, as far as the mine build is he really explained things and went into detail perhaps now people will give him a chance let him get on with it [gla]