George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
am i right in thinking per the Catcher/Kraken circular that if the sale takes place and INR 79bn is received (£ 763m on todays rate), leaving aside any other cash received/paid, that after the (upto) $ 700m divi/share buy back, CNE will have £ 634m in cash reserves ? so do they have an acquisition in mind (or a series of) or holding cash fora rainy day ? that's an awful lot of cash to have lying around,.
Its at a point now where its irrevocable on the Indian side IMO, as its had too much media time. If they renege on this now then I can categorically say no one is going anywhere near them with a bargepole let alone a investment fund and chequebook..which means we likely are getting a pay day, and I think the creeping price is starting to indicate this now
Oh come on grow a pair - go for the usd 1.8 billion!
If anyone wants to read the final rules for themselves, have a go at it on this link ;
https://incometaxindia.gov.in/news/notification_no_118_2021.pdf
Rules being onerous might be an understatement imo after reading it.
So you are saying the agreement requires Cairn to withdraw their claim before they can get paid ?
If you surely there are escrow type accounts where there the cash would be held independently unless the deal is done. Or is that too simple .
Well i brought another 3,000 at 1.92.
My calcualtions are
India $1080m
Cash at June 21 (including sale consideration) $341m
Defered consideration Waldorf $455 - $273 = $182m
2021 take at 60% over $52 $100m based on interims and $85 oil on second half
Total $1703m = £1,243 = £2.48 a share cash
We are all guessing but as quoted in numerous articles on line , since the rules were issued on the feedback from the various companies involved it is hoped they are settled quickly. Agree our CEO probably made it sound a bit to easy on the 7 th September but I can’t for one minute believe India would issue the final rules without knowing they would be accepted . Only time will tell . Fingers crossed .
Great - just collect what is owed! We can eait to get Usd 700K more.
Thanks Seav - I am still not convinced but agree some of the material reads like this.
I saw there are some reports that the rules might be difficult to comply with.
https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/economy-policy/new-terms-for-settling-retrospective-tax-cases-may-be-unwieldy-experts-121100300770_1.html
mrc- the below is mentioned in the Half year results announcement. It states that, the cases need to end so as "to be eligible for the refund". The enforcement cases anyways don't serve any purpose if the issue underlying the award is resolved I.e. Retrospective tax demand withdrawn and the amount is to be refunded.
"In accepting the terms of the new legislation in India, Cairn would be required to withdraw its international arbitration award claim, interest and costs and to end all legal enforcement actions in order to be eligible for the refund."
Agree. Although to be fair, CNEs management and shareholders especially the ones who've held through the past 7 years of uncertainty, would prefer today a certainty of the refund amount even if there is a few weeks delay. And CNE never gave much detail during the arbitration process on timelines or since the award so wouldn't expect CNE would do any differently now in terms of rules, timelines etc. until the receipt of funds and final closure of the issue imo.
The dislocation of the cash as a percentage of market cap is definitely attracting market participants attention ;
"The market capitalization of the stock doesn't reflect the cash that they will have on the balance sheet, Majcher said.
"They are going to distribute through dividends and share repurchases a very large portion of their market cap," Majcher said. "We think that's an interesting company, low risk opportunity to invest in energy."
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/energy-stock-picks-bull-case-outperforming-value-investor-stan-majcher-2021-10
Seav - the cases will stay live until settlement is my understanding. All cairn need to provide is a legal document that requires them to withdraw all cases following settlement.
I'm sure it'll all be fine and we'll get the money before long but given we're talking about cash equal to over 80% of the current market cap I think the communication is poor.
34a - If you read the North sea sale circular they have reiterated the latest status of the continuing group which is basically the same expectation of near term settlement. CNE have also mentioned specifically that CNEs going to have to withdraw and terminate the cases before settlement can be done which explicitly wasn't mentioned at the half year results.
It makes sense to let CNE drop all cases first else it would be a tricky situation for the gov if they decide to pay back CNE the settlement amount first but CNE doesn't drop the cases in a timely manner. With the rules they have put all the actions in a sequence i.e. Give an undertaking, drop all the cases and the award claim and get payment within specified days. Because CNE has all the leverage, the cases can just be reopened if settlement doesn't happen according to the above rules/sequence. The $1.8bn arbitration award will still be in favor of CNE(and interest still accruing) if the $1bn refund doesn't happen according to the new law /rules in time. The enforcement of the arbitration award on Air India despite its sale would resume if CNE chooses to go after the full award.
"On 7 September 2021, Cairn announced in the 2021 Half Yearly Results that it is considering entering into statutory undertakings with the Government of India in respect of new legislation, which would enable the refund of retrospective taxes collected from Cairn in India by way of the asset seizure referred to above totalling INR 79 billion (currently US$1.06 billion). The principal condition under the new legislation is the withdrawal of Cairn’s rights under the arbitration award referred to above, as well as the termination, withdrawal and/or discontinuance of various enforcement measures taken by Cairn in multiple jurisdictions."
I would really like some kind of statement from the company about the Indian government's rules for the settlement, whether they were what they expected, when they now expect things to be wrapped up etc.
There will need to a stewards enquiry if this ends up falling down after the CEO and GOI so publicly said the deal was as good as done . Never say never but remember GOI want this over the line pronto to push for foreign investment.
The price reached £2.15 late December 2020 driven by arbitration panel favouring CNE. Oil price WTI was $42. We are now at £1.90 SP with a settlement close to closing and oil doubled. Most other oilers are up significantly in same horizon. Tempted to buy some more tomorrow. Hope their is no sting in the tail that I / other investors are unaware of !!