George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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@Airborne - re jobs - absolutely about decent long term jobs - not to mention all the increased economic activity and job creation that results beyond CMET as a result of this core job creation.
spot-on chaps, and another, albeit small, point - management and large holders (so I think that's about 75% of the shares) cannot be sold until 12 months after it launched on AIM.
SO these guys can't get out - can't imagine they didn't factor in all the possible factors before they get the mine up and running. It just feels so close now and the sales aren't big - small retail seeing other short term plays in the market that look exciting and sexy.
I've said it before, nothing in this sector is guaranteed but I reckon this is as close as it gets.
Absolutely concur - nose close to the EIA (proportionately!) and so I’m sat holding tight. This has a huge run ahead of it once the licensing is in and with the potential for more km2 it’s got multiples written all over it. It just needs to come together. Sri Lanka needs the income and this is a reasonable way to capitalise on natural resources without leaving a ever-lasting trail of destruction behind it.
And it was pre approved prior and subject to public and technical review, don't forget
My view on the licencing is that it is a done deal and the formalities are taking longer than anticipated and this is causing bored PI's to sell out, of course there is always risk but that's why we are at 25m and not 150m+. There is 5 years worth of work gone into this project and we are at the final hurdle now, surely the likeliness of EIA/mining licence would of been one of the first things to be discussed at the meeting table, there is absolute no point in progressing a project for 5 years if there was any indication it would fail at the final hurdle.
Decent long term jobs, UK registered so mandated under modern slavery legislation to treat them with respect. Supplemental development around the plant creating more jobs for locals. This is going to be life changing for those families nearby, and not for professional objectionists who are already well set.
200- 250 jobs - can't imagine a lot of local opposition lasting.
Let's just hope the locals don't mass protest from the link David Law sent. However I remember Doc Holiday saying he had researched alot & came across an interview with a local official or government official who alluded to "be daft not to approve this project". From what I have heard from Doc & BOD comments on interview & what I have red I would be suprised if the EIA was not granted.
For me it's all about the locals & if they get onboard.
One of the objections from the above group was a cost benefit analysis and if you listen carefully to Micheal Frayne latest Interview he states CMET are on with a cost benifit analysis so it all aligns to your assumptions above
I assumed the technical review didn't run in conjunction with the public review, consider if CMET needed a couple of months to respond to the public comments, the technical review would be over before CMET had even replied to the public comments and the reply to the comments would be important to the technical review process. Without further info I'd expect the technical review not to start until the public review was completed.
This is the one opposition to the proposal https://ejustice.lk/2021/03/12/comment-on-the-oluwil-ilmenite-mining-project-eia/ from the "Centre for Environmental Justice". There could be more, but the one means CMET has to respond, that's part of the process.
So that means the PAA have to send that comment to CMET, which CMET replies to. The PAA has 30 days after they receive the response from CMET to respond to the response.
If CMET was able to reply instantly, the earliest date for ratification would be May 11th. I'm assuming CMET needs at least 2 weeks to reply, that takes us to the end of this month.
Assuming the PAA uses the entire time they have to reply the minimum time frame with one opposition to the proposal was May 11th, but realistically after May 25th and it wouldn't be surprising if there was no announcement until mid-June. There is a world pandemic and bureaucracy doesn't always run smoothly.
Because this isn't my area of expertise and limited experience researching mining stocks, I started to buy now. Would rather get in a few weeks early at a decent SP (this is a good SP) vs risk missing out if news drops early. Plus there's always the risk a big institutional investor which understands the process far better than we do decides to invest and the SP spikes up.
My assumption has been because retail investors get bored easy the longer it takes for the EIA news to drop the lower the SP dips. The last Reach RNS on April 26th (included no new info) threw a little spanner in my plan, caused a small short-term SP spike which stopped the SP weakness temporarily.
I took them resorting to a Reach RNS as strong support for the view the EIA news was not imminent (I was right). A company wouldn't waste time on a Reach RNS if there was a big SP catalyst a week or 2 away, that supported my logic the news won't drop at least until nearer the end of May.
Ah sorry I think I misread you May 11 comment and see you had made assumptions of their being an objection raised, not that there had been one.
1 Screening (Determining whether an EIA / IEE is required for a project) 6 days
2 Scoping (Determining the scope of the EIA / IEE study and issuing of Terms of Reference) 14 days for IEE and 30 days for EIA
3 Preparation of the EIA / IEE report No time limit has been given since the project proponent is responsible for this.
4. Review of the EIA / IEE report
The review involves both public and technical review
(a) Public review (applicable only for EIAs) The project proponent needs to respond to the public comments received. 30 working days
(b) Technical review 21 days for IEE and 30 days for EIA.
5 EIA / IEE Decision
Granting approval with terms and conditions or rejection with reasons.
From what I read the technical review runs in conjunction with the public review at the same time. And this is why an April meeting was scheduled to make a final decision. Not sure how they can hold that meeting with the technical review still ongoing. But I might be wrong. What I don't understand is how they can have a public comment raised on 11th May which requires an answer when the public consultation finished well before then in March. Either way, its all guesswork really but not long to wait either way.
I believe we are in the "Technical Review" phase of the EIA process where the Project Approving Agencies (PAA) has 30 days to respond to CMET's reply to any opposition comments. I'm assuming if the PAA are happy with CMET's replies etc... they'll announce the EIA ratification quickly.
I looked up the EIA process in Sri Lanka and based on that process and that there's at least one opposition comment which requires a response from CMET worked out the absolute earliest date was 11th May (that's if CMET replied same day they had access to the opposition comment which is highly unlikely and the PAA announces ratification same day they make the decision), but far more likely closer to the end of this month: CMET will need time to analyse any comments, formulate a response and I assume pop it in the post from the UK to Sri Lanka.
I've given them 2 weeks for the reply, so that takes us to May 25th for the EIA ratification news to drop.
Of course it could be earlier (why I bought half of what I want today) or much later: maybe they'll need a month to reply or the PAA takes more time to announce the decision. I found one opposition comment, could be 10 complaints for all we know which would mean CMET would need more time to reply, so a lot of assumptions.
I'm new to researching mining stocks, so having to make assumptions, any delays and this pushes the time lines into June...
Recently started adding my stock research to a Discord server, so far only invited a handful of ppl via Twitter to join the server. If you follow me on Twitter @DavidLaw drop me a DM and I'll send you an invite and you can see the full research and time line logic.
I am buying up everything that I can.
There's something weird going on looking at these trades.
250k gone through as definite buys over 14. Some other large numbers 75k and 60k that also look like buys.
I think there's a large buyer coming in and the MMs are filling the order around a specified price. Could be a large seller as well if i'm wrong but it doesn't look like that.
David, that's interesting thanks as Ive been trying to work out a timeframe for the EIA decision but with no luck. Can I ask what your source is for their EIA process and timescales, as I couldn't find anything at all. Have you managed to find decisions made and the previous timeframes for those? Cheers.
Glad to see I'm not the only one picking up bargains (hopefully) today. I bagged some profits in CEY the other day above 120p and have stuck them in here today.
No idea on the initial price reaction, I guess a lot might also depend on what's going on in the wider market if there's a meltdown (which I don't expect, yet). But looking into the next 9 months I expect every announcement will result in a step change in the price until we're up and producing:
> EIA
> Mining Licence
> Offtake agreements
> Financing arrangements (whether part of the offtake, placing or financing) (I don't expect much of a placing if any, the 76% equity holders won't want much dilution. But there's only 172m shares right now anyway)
> Construction start
> Production start in 9 months
> and there could even be a rerating of the existing JORC and further exploration...
I mean that's a lot of upcoming newsflow, so I anticipate share price rising (with opportunities) to the end of the year.
Well, the SP dropped enough for FOMO to kick in and I bought my first 18,000 shares at 14.13p today. That's about half the shares I want.
Been waiting a couple of weeks for the SP to pullback, so I could hold ready for the EIA news to drop. That news in theory could drop any day, but based on research (look up the EIA process for Sri Lanka and you can easily estimate a timeframe) it's more like closer to the end of this month, so still time for further SP weakness.
Assuming no delays from the comments against the project (there's at least one environmental group opposed), any thoughts on the SP reaction when the EIA news drops? I'm hoping for 25p short-term from that major milestone.
I liked the argument Doc Holiday made in the recent podcast that fund mangers etc... can't invest yet, they need the EIA tick box to validate an investment in CMET.
J-F - true the only two up on my list are ORR & KAV
The wider markets are getting battered. My watch list of 40 stocks, of which 38 are red and two are level, and one of those looks about to go red too lol. A switch off day
I hope this is a screaming buy (I mean I really hope, lol) unless there are some delayed trades (smth quite normal with this share) it's down on very little volume smacking the bid. SO I bought a chunk more...